ACC 2014 Predictions complete with Record

[NFLpredictor]

A couple of surprises in here but this is how we see it shaping up and ending up in the ACC this season.

ACC Conference Atlantic	Predicted 2014 Record	2013 Record
Florida St.	12-0	14-0
Clemson	9-3	11-2
Louisville	8-4	11-1
Boston College	7-5	7-6
Syracuse	7-5	7-6
Wake Forest	7-5	4-8
NC State	2-10	3-9

ACC Conference Coastal	Predicted 2014 Record	2013 Record
Virginia Tech	10-2	8-5
Duke	8-4	10-4
Georgia Tech	8-4	7-6
North Carolina	8-4	7-6
Miami	6-6	9-4
Pittsburgh	5-7	7-6
Virginia	2-10	2-10

 

[outhousetim]

Thanks. Would be shocked if Wake won more than 4 games. The rest makes sense, except VT has plenty of holes to fill (not at QB however, where it's addition by subtraction).

 

[NFLpredictor]

Perhaps it is a reach but they have a chance to start off 4-0 and I think they beat NC State. They'll have to sneak up on two others.

 

[rickrock]

Custer & The Indians

Perhaps it is a reach but they have a chance to start off 4-0 and I think they beat NC State. They'll have to sneak up on two others.

Sneak Up on 2 Others?!?!!?

That would almost as surprising as when the Indians snuck up on Custer! Do you know that WF is only a 3.5 fav in their ULM opener?
If you truly feel this way, you should make a season bet on WF total wins

 

[NFLpredictor]

Yes, I am saying that is a worthwhile bet.

 

[CoachCB]

Who's predictions are these? Is there a link or write up? Or are they YOUR predictions?

It looks like the ACC is back to the 90's being FSU and Everybody Else.

 

[rolltide]

Who's predictions are these? Is there a link or write up? Or are they YOUR predictions?

It looks like the ACC is back to the 90's being FSU and Everybody Else.

to further that point you should check out the ESPN list of the top 25 players in the acc.

FSU has 10 guys listed in the top 23 ... insane

i will say my local boys from Pitt have a freaking outstanding offensive line. whatever the hell that will get them I don't know but a truly great front 5 and one great WR. after that? meh

 

[rolltide]

wake 7-5? no chance

new schemes on both sides of the ball, worst O-line in conference, well worst everything on offense in the conference...but a serviceable defense at least in the secondary

3 wins, 4 max

btw, really like their new DC, Elko....he's the guy I wanted at Pitt to replace Huxtable that left for NC State

they will play some really ugly low scoring games this year

 

[NFLpredictor]

Who's predictions are these? Is there a link or write up? Or are they YOUR predictions?

It looks like the ACC is back to the 90's being FSU and Everybody Else.

These are our predictions from our website. Not from ESPN or some other media outfit. Based on a system that eliminates our personal biases, prejudices, etc. It has been good to us.

 

[rolltide]

another reason to not like Wake...at all. 3rd from dead last in returning experience in the nation (steele's ratings)

Way back in 2002, in a time before freshmen won Heisman trophies, I based my yearly team experience rankings on returning senior starters and actually penalized teams for having freshman starters. Then Tim Tebow won the Heisman in 2007 and started a trend of underclassmen playing more prominent roles. By 2009, I had to tweak my formula to factor in returning letter winners, percentage of yards and tackles returning, and career offensive line starts returning.While experience doesn't necessarily trump talent, teams from the Power Five conferences that have ranked in the top 10 of my experience rankings since 2009 have seen their records, on average, improve or stay the same over the previous year 76 percent of the time. On the opposite end of the spectrum, teams that have ranked in the bottom 10 of my experience rankings have seen their records, on average, get weaker or stay the same 78 percent of the time.It is worth noting that the average experience ranking for teams playing in the national championship game since 2009 is just 49th, with last year's national champ Florida State Seminoles coming in at 78. That makes sense when you consider that most championship contenders lose several starting underclassmen to the NFL draft each year but make up for the losses by bringing in elite recruits.

With that in mind, here are my 2014 experience rankings for the ACC:

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1. Syracuse Orange (National rank: No. 17)

Last year, Syracuse head coach Scott Shafer got the Orange to a bowl in their first year in the ACC. This year, they welcome back 15 starters, led by quarterback Terrel Hunt (1,638 pass yards), who is also their leading returning rusher (500 yards). The Orange also bring back six of their top seven receivers and have 78 career starts returning on their offensive line.On defense, they return five of their top six tacklers. Overall, Syracuse has 76 percent of its lettermen back (No. 18 in country) and also has 16 seniors in its two-deep.Shafer has stated that his goal for this year's team is getting to eight wins. I think they have a shot despite playing my No. 21 toughest schedule.

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2. Virginia Cavaliers (No. 18)

Virginia had just nine seniors on its entire team last season. In related news, the Cavaliers recorded their worst season since 1981, and this year head coach Mike London is on the hot seat. But the Cavs are well positioned to improve in 2014, thanks to the return of 17 starters.Both Greyson Lambert and David Watford are back at quarterback, as are the the Cavaliers' top five rushers -- a group led by Kevin Parks , who had over 1,000 yards on the ground last season -- and eight of their top 10 receivers. Altogether, Virginia returns 88 percent of its offensive yards, the 13th-highest mark in the country.Things are similar on the defensive side, where Virginia brings back eight of its top nine tacklers and ranks No. 5 in the country in percent of tackles returning (85).Not only is Virginia more experienced this season -- it brings in two elite freshmen in defensive lineman Andrew Brown and defensive back Quin Blanding. Despite playing my No. 7 toughest schedule, the Cavs should at least double last year's two wins.

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3. Duke Blue Devils (No. 25)

2013 was arguably the Blue Devils' best season in school history. For the first time, Duke won 10 games and the ACC Coastal division.With 14 starters back, including quarterback Anthony Boone, Duke is well positioned to defend its crown. Along with Boone, leading rusher Josh Snead (651 yards) and All-America wide receiver candidate Jamison Crowder (1,360 yards) return, too. The offensive line boasts 83 career starts, led by first-team All-ACC guard Laken Tomlinson.In David Helton, Jeremy Cash and Kelby Brown, the defense returns three players who each topped 100 tackles in 2013. Duke has 12 senior starters and will avoid Florida State, Clemson and Louisville. The Blue Devils should easily make their third straight bowl and are clearly a contender in the wide-open Coastal division.

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4. Florida State Seminoles (No. 39)

The Seminoles climb from No. 78 to No. 39 in my rankings, a major reason they are the prohibitive preseason No. 1. The offense, of course, is led by returning Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Wide receiver Rashad Greene is also back after leading the team in receiving each of the last three years. The offensive line has 114 career starts under its belt (10th most in the country) and has three All-America candidates, led by offensive tackle Cameron Erving.The defense is less experienced, as it returns just 55 percent of its total tackles from last year (No. 91). But head coach Jimbo Fisher has done a solid job in recruiting, with four straight top-10 classes.Thanks to their experience, the Noles should be double-digit favorites in all 12 of their regular-season games.

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5. Louisville Cardinals (No. 77)

The Cardinals are in better shape than I originally thought they'd be back before they hired Bobby Petrino. They also get back leading wide receiverDeVante Parker, who decided to return for his senior season. And while they lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, they'll welcome back three of their top four rushers and four of their top five receivers. The offensive line has 121 career starts, which ranks No. 7 in the country.The defense loses six of its top eight tacklers from last year and ranks No. 117 in total tackles returning (47 percent). Overall, they have an ACC-high 17 seniors in their two-deep, and while they won't match last year's 12-win total, the Cards should still have a successful first year in ACC play.

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6. North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 79)

The Tar Heels are my pick to win the ACC Coastal, as they return 15 starters. They'll be led by quarterback Marquise Williams, who topped the team in rushing yards and racked up 2,234 yards total, most of which came in the second half of the season. They also return four of their top five rushers and four of their top five receivers. On defense, they lose three of their top four tacklers but do have their next six guys back. While they have only eight seniors on their entire two-deep, the Tar Heels return 75 percent of their lettermen (No. 22 in country). One of my nine sets of power ratings actually predicts a perfect regular season.

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7. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (No. 80)

The Hurricanes return 14 starters and lose two-year starting quarterback Stephen Morris who finished third in school history with 7,896 pass yards. On the bright side, they return their top three rushers, including Duke Johnson, who ran for 920 yards despite missing the last five games with a broken ankle. They also have six of their top seven receivers back and 73 career starts on the offensive line.The defense returns leading tackler Denzel Perryman and has nine of its top 13 tacklers back. While this appears to be coach Al Golden's best team yet, the Hurricanes will have road games at Louisville, Nebraska and Virginia Tech and pull rival Florida State from the Atlantic division. It could be difficult to get back to nine wins.

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8. Virginia Tech Hokies (No. 92)

The Hokies have 14 returning starters but do lose their all-time leading passer in Logan Thomas, who had 3,251 total yards last year. However, leading rusher Trey Edmunds returns along with eight of their top nine receivers.The defense loses its top two tacklers and ranks No. 101 in tackle percentage returning (54) but has my No. 1 secondary and returns 75 percent of its lettermen (No. 23).The schedule has the Hokies playing four bowl teams from last year on the road. Still, I give them a great shot at winning the Coastal.

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9. Pittsburgh Panthers (No. 105)

Last year, the Panthers had 13 returning starters and notched a winning season in their first year in the ACC. This year, they again have 13 returning starters and look poised to continue building a solid program under head coach Paul Chryst. The offense loses quarterback Tom Savage but retains its top six rushers, including James Conner, who had 229 rush yards in the bowl win. Also back is Tyler Boyd, an All-America candidate at receiver after totaling 1,174 yards in 2013. The Panthers will return nine of their top 10 receivers. And while the defense loses all-everything Aaron Donald (28.5 tackles for loss last year), the Panthers do avoid Florida State, Clemson and Louisville. Expect Pitt to make its third straight bowl game.

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10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (No. 106)

The Yellow Jackets return just 10 starters (fewest since 2008) and lose their quarterback, top three rushers and leading receiver. They return just 49 percent of their yards on offense (No. 96) and also have just 45 starts returning on the offensive line (No. 94), with 26 of those by All-ACC guardShaquille Mason.On defense, they lose three of their top five tacklers and return just 59 percent of their total tackles (No. 86). Still, they've never finished lower than third in the Coastal in Paul Johnson's six years as coach. With that division wide open, the Yellow Jackets should qualify for their 18th straight bowl.

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11. Clemson Tigers (No. 113)

The Tigers are coming off back-to-back 11-win seasons but will be hard-pressed to match that win total this year due to their inexperience. Gone is all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd and all-time leading receiver Sammy Watkins. They also lose a 1,000-yard rusher in Roderick McDowell. Altogether, the Tigers return just 27 percent of their offensive yards (No. 121).The defense returns seven starters and has 95 career starts on the defensive line (most in the country), led by All-America defensive end Vic Beasley. They play at Georgia and Florida State in the first three games of the season, and it will take some time for their new skill-position players to develop on offense.

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12. NC State Wolfpack (No. 114)

Last year, NC State ranked No. 121 in the country in experience and had its first winless season in the ACC since 1959. This year, the Pack only move up to No. 114 despite the return of 14 starters. The offense returns their leading rusher but loses their top two passers and top two receivers -- altogether, NC State ranks No. 100 in offensive yards returning, with just 42 percent back.

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13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (No. 125)

After leading Wake Forest to its fifth consecutive losing season, longtime head coach Jim Grobe stepped down. His replacement, Dave Clawson, inherits just 10 returning starters. The offense loses a four-year starting quarterback in Tanner Price, its top two rushers and top two receivers. Overall, they return just 23 percent of their offensive yards (No. 126). The defense returns its top two tacklers but loses three-time All-ACC defensive lineman Nikita Whitlock. This clearly looks like a rebuilding year.

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14. Boston College Eagles (No. 127)

The Eagles were the most experienced team in the ACC (No. 7 in country) last season, and they rode that experience to seven wins and a bowl bid after notching just six combined wins in 2011-2012. But the offense has been depleted, particularly by the loss of running back Andre Williams, who led the nation in rushing last year with 2,177 yards. The Eagles also lose quarterback Chase Rettig and wide receiver Alex Amidon, who topped 1,000 yards. Overall, the Eagles return just 13 percent of their offensive yards from last year, which ranks dead last in the country.

 

[NFLpredictor]

another reason to not like Wake...at all. 3rd from dead last in returning experience in the nation (steele's ratings)

Way back in 2002, in a time before freshmen won Heisman trophies, I based my yearly team experience rankings on returning senior starters and actually penalized teams for having freshman starters. Then Tim Tebow won the Heisman in 2007 and started a trend of underclassmen playing more prominent roles. By 2009, I had to tweak my formula to factor in returning letter winners, percentage of yards and tackles returning, and career offensive line starts returning.While experience doesn't necessarily trump talent, teams from the Power Five conferences that have ranked in the top 10 of my experience rankings since 2009 have seen their records, on average, improve or stay the same over the previous year 76 percent of the time. On the opposite end of the spectrum, teams that have ranked in the bottom 10 of my experience rankings have seen their records, on average, get weaker or stay the same 78 percent of the time.It is worth noting that the average experience ranking for teams playing in the national championship game since 2009 is just 49th, with last year's national champ Florida State Seminoles coming in at 78. That makes sense when you consider that most championship contenders lose several starting underclassmen to the NFL draft each year but make up for the losses by bringing in elite recruits.

With that in mind, here are my 2014 experience rankings for the ACC:

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1. Syracuse Orange (National rank: No. 17)

Last year, Syracuse head coach Scott Shafer got the Orange to a bowl in their first year in the ACC. This year, they welcome back 15 starters, led by quarterback Terrel Hunt (1,638 pass yards), who is also their leading returning rusher (500 yards). The Orange also bring back six of their top seven receivers and have 78 career starts returning on their offensive line.On defense, they return five of their top six tacklers. Overall, Syracuse has 76 percent of its lettermen back (No. 18 in country) and also has 16 seniors in its two-deep.Shafer has stated that his goal for this year's team is getting to eight wins. I think they have a shot despite playing my No. 21 toughest schedule.

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2. Virginia Cavaliers (No. 18)

Virginia had just nine seniors on its entire team last season. In related news, the Cavaliers recorded their worst season since 1981, and this year head coach Mike London is on the hot seat. But the Cavs are well positioned to improve in 2014, thanks to the return of 17 starters.Both Greyson Lambert and David Watford are back at quarterback, as are the the Cavaliers' top five rushers -- a group led by Kevin Parks , who had over 1,000 yards on the ground last season -- and eight of their top 10 receivers. Altogether, Virginia returns 88 percent of its offensive yards, the 13th-highest mark in the country.Things are similar on the defensive side, where Virginia brings back eight of its top nine tacklers and ranks No. 5 in the country in percent of tackles returning (85).Not only is Virginia more experienced this season -- it brings in two elite freshmen in defensive lineman Andrew Brown and defensive back Quin Blanding. Despite playing my No. 7 toughest schedule, the Cavs should at least double last year's two wins.

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3. Duke Blue Devils (No. 25)

2013 was arguably the Blue Devils' best season in school history. For the first time, Duke won 10 games and the ACC Coastal division.With 14 starters back, including quarterback Anthony Boone, Duke is well positioned to defend its crown. Along with Boone, leading rusher Josh Snead (651 yards) and All-America wide receiver candidate Jamison Crowder (1,360 yards) return, too. The offensive line boasts 83 career starts, led by first-team All-ACC guard Laken Tomlinson.In David Helton, Jeremy Cash and Kelby Brown, the defense returns three players who each topped 100 tackles in 2013. Duke has 12 senior starters and will avoid Florida State, Clemson and Louisville. The Blue Devils should easily make their third straight bowl and are clearly a contender in the wide-open Coastal division.

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4. Florida State Seminoles (No. 39)

The Seminoles climb from No. 78 to No. 39 in my rankings, a major reason they are the prohibitive preseason No. 1. The offense, of course, is led by returning Heisman winner Jameis Winston. Wide receiver Rashad Greene is also back after leading the team in receiving each of the last three years. The offensive line has 114 career starts under its belt (10th most in the country) and has three All-America candidates, led by offensive tackle Cameron Erving.The defense is less experienced, as it returns just 55 percent of its total tackles from last year (No. 91). But head coach Jimbo Fisher has done a solid job in recruiting, with four straight top-10 classes.Thanks to their experience, the Noles should be double-digit favorites in all 12 of their regular-season games.

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5. Louisville Cardinals (No. 77)

The Cardinals are in better shape than I originally thought they'd be back before they hired Bobby Petrino. They also get back leading wide receiverDeVante Parker, who decided to return for his senior season. And while they lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, they'll welcome back three of their top four rushers and four of their top five receivers. The offensive line has 121 career starts, which ranks No. 7 in the country.The defense loses six of its top eight tacklers from last year and ranks No. 117 in total tackles returning (47 percent). Overall, they have an ACC-high 17 seniors in their two-deep, and while they won't match last year's 12-win total, the Cards should still have a successful first year in ACC play.

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6. North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 79)

The Tar Heels are my pick to win the ACC Coastal, as they return 15 starters. They'll be led by quarterback Marquise Williams, who topped the team in rushing yards and racked up 2,234 yards total, most of which came in the second half of the season. They also return four of their top five rushers and four of their top five receivers. On defense, they lose three of their top four tacklers but do have their next six guys back. While they have only eight seniors on their entire two-deep, the Tar Heels return 75 percent of their lettermen (No. 22 in country). One of my nine sets of power ratings actually predicts a perfect regular season.

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7. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (No. 80)

The Hurricanes return 14 starters and lose two-year starting quarterback Stephen Morris who finished third in school history with 7,896 pass yards. On the bright side, they return their top three rushers, including Duke Johnson, who ran for 920 yards despite missing the last five games with a broken ankle. They also have six of their top seven receivers back and 73 career starts on the offensive line.The defense returns leading tackler Denzel Perryman and has nine of its top 13 tacklers back. While this appears to be coach Al Golden's best team yet, the Hurricanes will have road games at Louisville, Nebraska and Virginia Tech and pull rival Florida State from the Atlantic division. It could be difficult to get back to nine wins.

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8. Virginia Tech Hokies (No. 92)

The Hokies have 14 returning starters but do lose their all-time leading passer in Logan Thomas, who had 3,251 total yards last year. However, leading rusher Trey Edmunds returns along with eight of their top nine receivers.The defense loses its top two tacklers and ranks No. 101 in tackle percentage returning (54) but has my No. 1 secondary and returns 75 percent of its lettermen (No. 23).The schedule has the Hokies playing four bowl teams from last year on the road. Still, I give them a great shot at winning the Coastal.

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9. Pittsburgh Panthers (No. 105)

Last year, the Panthers had 13 returning starters and notched a winning season in their first year in the ACC. This year, they again have 13 returning starters and look poised to continue building a solid program under head coach Paul Chryst. The offense loses quarterback Tom Savage but retains its top six rushers, including James Conner, who had 229 rush yards in the bowl win. Also back is Tyler Boyd, an All-America candidate at receiver after totaling 1,174 yards in 2013. The Panthers will return nine of their top 10 receivers. And while the defense loses all-everything Aaron Donald (28.5 tackles for loss last year), the Panthers do avoid Florida State, Clemson and Louisville. Expect Pitt to make its third straight bowl game.

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10. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (No. 106)

The Yellow Jackets return just 10 starters (fewest since 2008) and lose their quarterback, top three rushers and leading receiver. They return just 49 percent of their yards on offense (No. 96) and also have just 45 starts returning on the offensive line (No. 94), with 26 of those by All-ACC guardShaquille Mason.On defense, they lose three of their top five tacklers and return just 59 percent of their total tackles (No. 86). Still, they've never finished lower than third in the Coastal in Paul Johnson's six years as coach. With that division wide open, the Yellow Jackets should qualify for their 18th straight bowl.

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11. Clemson Tigers (No. 113)

The Tigers are coming off back-to-back 11-win seasons but will be hard-pressed to match that win total this year due to their inexperience. Gone is all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd and all-time leading receiver Sammy Watkins. They also lose a 1,000-yard rusher in Roderick McDowell. Altogether, the Tigers return just 27 percent of their offensive yards (No. 121).The defense returns seven starters and has 95 career starts on the defensive line (most in the country), led by All-America defensive end Vic Beasley. They play at Georgia and Florida State in the first three games of the season, and it will take some time for their new skill-position players to develop on offense.

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12. NC State Wolfpack (No. 114)

Last year, NC State ranked No. 121 in the country in experience and had its first winless season in the ACC since 1959. This year, the Pack only move up to No. 114 despite the return of 14 starters. The offense returns their leading rusher but loses their top two passers and top two receivers -- altogether, NC State ranks No. 100 in offensive yards returning, with just 42 percent back.

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13. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (No. 125)

After leading Wake Forest to its fifth consecutive losing season, longtime head coach Jim Grobe stepped down. His replacement, Dave Clawson, inherits just 10 returning starters. The offense loses a four-year starting quarterback in Tanner Price, its top two rushers and top two receivers. Overall, they return just 23 percent of their offensive yards (No. 126). The defense returns its top two tacklers but loses three-time All-ACC defensive lineman Nikita Whitlock. This clearly looks like a rebuilding year.

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14. Boston College Eagles (No. 127)

The Eagles were the most experienced team in the ACC (No. 7 in country) last season, and they rode that experience to seven wins and a bowl bid after notching just six combined wins in 2011-2012. But the offense has been depleted, particularly by the loss of running back Andre Williams, who led the nation in rushing last year with 2,177 yards. The Eagles also lose quarterback Chase Rettig and wide receiver Alex Amidon, who topped 1,000 yards. Overall, the Eagles return just 13 percent of their offensive yards from last year, which ranks dead last in the country.

Interesting info. I am going to be really interested in how this correlates with the actual results this season.