Thought I would throw my fellow RX'ers a bone or two.
Apparently there is real support within the academy for Michael Clayton. Several sources seem to share the belief it is the real challenger to No Country for Best Picture. While most still believe No Country shall prevail what is interesting is oddsmakers have installed Michael Clayton as basically an afterthought for the top prize with prices in the 30/40-1 range.
Entertainment Weekly today has somewhat further confirmed those sources who have hyped up Michael Clayton in their annual predictions.
They estimate the percentage of votes as follows;
No Country for Old Men 30%
Michael Clayton 25%
There Will Be Blood 20%
Juno 15%
Atonement 10%
Interesting to note last year they had Crash (eventual winner) just 5% behind Brokeback (who at the time was a huge favorite for best pic).
One other value selection I'll share. To go along with this Micheal Clayton support its widely recognized Tilda Swinton is a serious player for Best Supporting Actress. The theory is the academy will want to award MC in one of the major categories and if you do the math this oscar has no true frontrunner and is up for grabs. Everybody except for child actress Ronan has a chance thus the vote will be split and if one group can rally around a nominee it has the best chance.
Again I'll bring up EW's predictions for this category. (this isn't a major source with a great track record but its just some proof I know what I'm talking about!)
Tilda Swinton 28%
Amy Ryan 25%
Cate Blanchett 22%
Ruby Dee 20%
Saoirse Ronan 5%
Again great odds available, at the moment in the 12/20-1 range.
With a slice of luck it could be a great night...
Apparently there is real support within the academy for Michael Clayton. Several sources seem to share the belief it is the real challenger to No Country for Best Picture. While most still believe No Country shall prevail what is interesting is oddsmakers have installed Michael Clayton as basically an afterthought for the top prize with prices in the 30/40-1 range.
Entertainment Weekly today has somewhat further confirmed those sources who have hyped up Michael Clayton in their annual predictions.
They estimate the percentage of votes as follows;
No Country for Old Men 30%
Michael Clayton 25%
There Will Be Blood 20%
Juno 15%
Atonement 10%
Interesting to note last year they had Crash (eventual winner) just 5% behind Brokeback (who at the time was a huge favorite for best pic).
One other value selection I'll share. To go along with this Micheal Clayton support its widely recognized Tilda Swinton is a serious player for Best Supporting Actress. The theory is the academy will want to award MC in one of the major categories and if you do the math this oscar has no true frontrunner and is up for grabs. Everybody except for child actress Ronan has a chance thus the vote will be split and if one group can rally around a nominee it has the best chance.
Again I'll bring up EW's predictions for this category. (this isn't a major source with a great track record but its just some proof I know what I'm talking about!)
Tilda Swinton 28%
Amy Ryan 25%
Cate Blanchett 22%
Ruby Dee 20%
Saoirse Ronan 5%
Again great odds available, at the moment in the 12/20-1 range.
With a slice of luck it could be a great night...
I'm saying Michael Clayton has a greater chance of winning than the current odds indicate...much better chance.
This is also a solid play. I've alloted my maximum bet in this category to just go for the glory but there is definitely some value here as well.
Interesting to note Blanchett was the percieved frontrunner from the get go (and the odds went along with that thought) but it appears her chances have really slipped as the process has moved along. You could say the production company for Blanchett's movie confirmed her fading momentum when they sent out an edited screener to academy members just highlighting only her scenes. I suppose you can't fault them completely in their idea as Blanchett doesn't appear until about an hour into the movie. Still if they thought she was in a winning position they probably wouldn't have felt it necessary to waste a few more thousand dollars and send out the edited version.
Plus Cate Blanchett has failed to win some of the more recent precursor awards.
imo Chances of winning
Amy Ryan 30%
Tilda Swinton 25%
Cate Blanchett 25%
Ruby Dee 15%
Saoirse Ronan 5%
Still in a giving mood.
In the Foreign film category quality information is hard to come. However from what I gather everyone appears to agree The Counterfeiters is the favorite. Now how much of a frontrunner its really impossible to know. Of the just less then 4000 academy voters only a few hundred will end up voting here as you must sign an affidavit saying you've watched all nominees. I read somewhere along with The Counterfeiters, 12 and Beaufort were the other selections who were selected first and that Katyn and Mongol were "thrown in" later. So from the beginning I believed the first three had a greater chance of winning. And from several sites they all agree The Counterfeiters is currently ahead of the others.
Obviously if The Counterfeiters was around even money I wouldn't bother but since 3-1 (or better) can be found its a mandatory play.
In the Foreign film category quality information is hard to come. However from what I gather everyone appears to agree The Counterfeiters is the favorite. Now how much of a frontrunner its really impossible to know. Of the just less then 4000 academy voters only a few hundred will end up voting here as you must sign an affidavit saying you've watched all nominees. I read somewhere along with The Counterfeiters, 12 and Beaufort were the other selections who were selected first and that Katyn and Mongol were "thrown in" later. So from the beginning I believed the first three had a greater chance of winning. And from several sites they all agree The Counterfeiters is currently ahead of the others.
Obviously if The Counterfeiters was around even money I wouldn't bother but since 3-1 (or better) can be found its a mandatory play.
