It's nice to play with winnings as many on this forum can attest to (lots of winners as far as I can tell). Should have played it at 7, but was asleep at the wheel.
Miami -7.5
Miami 1H -4
Both fairly large for me. Many reasons why they'll cover. The spread at 7.5 is a little high, but if it was at 5.5, it would be a bargain. So I figure the difference is only one bucket. Also, Miami won't let up, even late in this one. The 25% doubt is this: If Indiana is red hot shooting, scoring from the outside at a great %, and Miami is a little cold out there, Indiana could cover. About a 20% chance of that happening. Allowing another 5% for an injury to a key Miami player or some other outlier.
Miami likely covers because:
* They can be complacent, but when motivated, their energy level, and defense, is champion-like. They will be motivated.
* LeBron's last game will motivate him to play even better than his norm, maybe much better. He doesn't like the Pacers trash talking, blowing in his ear and calling him weak, and is good enough to back it up by how he plays. In fact, his teammates know he's "the man", and will be motivated as well. The Heat don't like the Pacers. Miami usually respects their opponents, but right now they'd love to rub Indiana's face in a blowout.
* LeBron sat on the bench during game 5, and I still think for large parts of the game, Miami outplayed the Pacers. In this game, there will be no ticky tacky fouls on LeBron. Home teams get the calls, we all know that.
* George will not likely score like he did in game 5. Why? Miami actually plays smarter defense than Indiana. The Pacers might have played the best NBA defense for the first 60% of the regular season, but if you have watched the Heat play D in the playoff this year, last year, etc….. they bring their A game better in these big games.
* Home game. Every time the Heat have a spurt, their fans will go ballistic, and the players will get pumped. The Pacers will get deflated, and as we have seen in this series(and earlier series), they start blaming teammates, coaches, refs… and pout just a bit. Their coach, at times, seems to have lost his team.
* Hibbert might have one of his disappearing acts. He's about 50-50 in the playoffs for that.
* Miami's bench played very well in games 3 and 4 and like their role at holding the lead, and have the edge over the Pacers' bench.
* Bosh has a lot to prove and seems to do thrive at home.
* This spread is 7.5, which seems high against the #1 seed, but I'm convinced that the Pacers have played more like a 4 or 5 seed during the playoffs, and late in the season. Are they overrated right now? I say yes. Miami gets poor grades for not always bringing their A game, but when they do, and I think there's a 75% chance they do, they win easily.
Miami -7.5
Miami 1H -4
Both fairly large for me. Many reasons why they'll cover. The spread at 7.5 is a little high, but if it was at 5.5, it would be a bargain. So I figure the difference is only one bucket. Also, Miami won't let up, even late in this one. The 25% doubt is this: If Indiana is red hot shooting, scoring from the outside at a great %, and Miami is a little cold out there, Indiana could cover. About a 20% chance of that happening. Allowing another 5% for an injury to a key Miami player or some other outlier.
Miami likely covers because:
* They can be complacent, but when motivated, their energy level, and defense, is champion-like. They will be motivated.
* LeBron's last game will motivate him to play even better than his norm, maybe much better. He doesn't like the Pacers trash talking, blowing in his ear and calling him weak, and is good enough to back it up by how he plays. In fact, his teammates know he's "the man", and will be motivated as well. The Heat don't like the Pacers. Miami usually respects their opponents, but right now they'd love to rub Indiana's face in a blowout.
* LeBron sat on the bench during game 5, and I still think for large parts of the game, Miami outplayed the Pacers. In this game, there will be no ticky tacky fouls on LeBron. Home teams get the calls, we all know that.
* George will not likely score like he did in game 5. Why? Miami actually plays smarter defense than Indiana. The Pacers might have played the best NBA defense for the first 60% of the regular season, but if you have watched the Heat play D in the playoff this year, last year, etc….. they bring their A game better in these big games.
* Home game. Every time the Heat have a spurt, their fans will go ballistic, and the players will get pumped. The Pacers will get deflated, and as we have seen in this series(and earlier series), they start blaming teammates, coaches, refs… and pout just a bit. Their coach, at times, seems to have lost his team.
* Hibbert might have one of his disappearing acts. He's about 50-50 in the playoffs for that.
* Miami's bench played very well in games 3 and 4 and like their role at holding the lead, and have the edge over the Pacers' bench.
* Bosh has a lot to prove and seems to do thrive at home.
* This spread is 7.5, which seems high against the #1 seed, but I'm convinced that the Pacers have played more like a 4 or 5 seed during the playoffs, and late in the season. Are they overrated right now? I say yes. Miami gets poor grades for not always bringing their A game, but when they do, and I think there's a 75% chance they do, they win easily.
