All parlays do is make you win or lose faster. If you are a winning handicapper, you will increase your bankroll faster. If you are a losing handicapper, you will lose your money faster. Doesn't matter if you cut down the juice if you are on the wrong side anyway.
If you are wondering whether parlays are good or not, they are probably not in your situation. (Correlated parlays are a totally different story, but most books won't let you bet them anyway).
If you are wondering whether parlays are good or not, they are probably not in your situation. (Correlated parlays are a totally different story, but most books won't let you bet them anyway).
My English is not great, but hopefully you understand.
Lets assume that we have a Joe Public betting on events and he goes as linemakers hope, winning 50% and losing 50% of his bets, always bets with a same stake and nothing but parlays. So he is losing money because there is the vig and a lot more vig with parlays.
What kind of odds he gets on straight wager when he's parlaying teams with a 20-cent line? In this case all teams have -110, just make it simple. With a 20-cent line bookmaker commission
is about 4.55%. 100-4.55 is 95.45% and this is how much bookmaker pays out on every wager. 100*0.9545=1.909 and Americans knows that as -110. Everytime you make 2 team parlay you have to calculate 0.9545*0.9545 and with 3 team parlay 0.9545*0.9545*0.9545 to solve the vig.
True odds on single wager with a 20 cent line and the original odd was -110 and Commission 4.55%.
2 team parlay -135 (Commission 8.90%)
3 team parlay -152 (13.04%)
4 team parlay -171 (17.00%)
5 team parlay -195 (20.77%)
6 team parlay -225 (24.38%)
If you think you can make money in a long run betting -225 on single wager when true odd is -110, 6 team parlay is perfect for you.
What a about dime line (10 cent line) -105/-105. Bookmaker commission is 2.4% with a dime line, so 100-2.4=97.6%. Calculating with a same way:
True odds on single wager with a 10 cent line and the original odd was -105 and the vig 2.4%.
2 team parlay -116 (4.74%)
3 team parlay -123 (7.03%)
4 team parlay -130 (9.26%)
5 team parlay -137 (11.44%)
6 team parlay -145 (13.56%)
A free tip for sportsbooks. Offer dime line on parlays, you will get more people betting parlays because they see -105 instead of -110, not a rising vig. You might have some smart people betting NCAA parlays, but with NFL and NBA you won't lose.
Lets assume that we have a Joe Public betting on events and he goes as linemakers hope, winning 50% and losing 50% of his bets, always bets with a same stake and nothing but parlays. So he is losing money because there is the vig and a lot more vig with parlays.
What kind of odds he gets on straight wager when he's parlaying teams with a 20-cent line? In this case all teams have -110, just make it simple. With a 20-cent line bookmaker commission
is about 4.55%. 100-4.55 is 95.45% and this is how much bookmaker pays out on every wager. 100*0.9545=1.909 and Americans knows that as -110. Everytime you make 2 team parlay you have to calculate 0.9545*0.9545 and with 3 team parlay 0.9545*0.9545*0.9545 to solve the vig.
True odds on single wager with a 20 cent line and the original odd was -110 and Commission 4.55%.
2 team parlay -135 (Commission 8.90%)
3 team parlay -152 (13.04%)
4 team parlay -171 (17.00%)
5 team parlay -195 (20.77%)
6 team parlay -225 (24.38%)
If you think you can make money in a long run betting -225 on single wager when true odd is -110, 6 team parlay is perfect for you.
What a about dime line (10 cent line) -105/-105. Bookmaker commission is 2.4% with a dime line, so 100-2.4=97.6%. Calculating with a same way:
True odds on single wager with a 10 cent line and the original odd was -105 and the vig 2.4%.
2 team parlay -116 (4.74%)
3 team parlay -123 (7.03%)
4 team parlay -130 (9.26%)
5 team parlay -137 (11.44%)
6 team parlay -145 (13.56%)
A free tip for sportsbooks. Offer dime line on parlays, you will get more people betting parlays because they see -105 instead of -110, not a rising vig. You might have some smart people betting NCAA parlays, but with NFL and NBA you won't lose.
Who here but me knows those stats are off.
Not so fast my friend.
Here is another way to look at this (Balls on accurate, I might add!) This is a little easier for most to understand.
The English, not bad. The math needs some work.
The vig or profit to a book on parlays has to do with the expectations (probability) of winning all games.
Factors for multiplying odds on parlays are not simply the juice on each game.
Kind of late for a math lesson, but there you have it.
If you are flipping a coin (or a 50% capper) the odds of winning a 4 teamer are simply......
50% X 50% X 50% x 50% = .0625 or 1 in 16
They pay us 10 or 11 to 1. In the case of 10 to 1 they are paying us 62.5% of what we deserve or a 60% vig.
If you are a 60% capper then
60% X 60% X 60% X 60% = .1296 or 7.716 to 1 In this case we have a great edge. But... Who hits 60% consistently.
NOBODY!!!!!
Lets look at 55%. Reasonable number
55% X 55% X 55% X 55% = .0915 or 10.928 to 1
SOOO.... You see at 55% a 4 team parlay is a mathmatically reasonable proposition strickly by the vig.
But... You have to hit ALL FOUR of the plays to get paid.
Hence the huge edge to the book!
Not so fast my friend.
Here is another way to look at this (Balls on accurate, I might add!) This is a little easier for most to understand.
The English, not bad. The math needs some work.
The vig or profit to a book on parlays has to do with the expectations (probability) of winning all games.
Factors for multiplying odds on parlays are not simply the juice on each game.
Kind of late for a math lesson, but there you have it.
If you are flipping a coin (or a 50% capper) the odds of winning a 4 teamer are simply......
50% X 50% X 50% x 50% = .0625 or 1 in 16
They pay us 10 or 11 to 1. In the case of 10 to 1 they are paying us 62.5% of what we deserve or a 60% vig.
If you are a 60% capper then
60% X 60% X 60% X 60% = .1296 or 7.716 to 1 In this case we have a great edge. But... Who hits 60% consistently.
NOBODY!!!!!
Lets look at 55%. Reasonable number
55% X 55% X 55% X 55% = .0915 or 10.928 to 1
SOOO.... You see at 55% a 4 team parlay is a mathmatically reasonable proposition strickly by the vig.
But... You have to hit ALL FOUR of the plays to get paid.
Hence the huge edge to the book!
