A valuable gambling resource...

chaneykn · Jan 22, 2004

I have been closely tracking a Power Rankings site over the past couple months, just to see how it compares to all the others. What I have found is a relatively unique and highly accurate method of predicting the outcomes of games.

For example, last year's matchup between Arizona and UCLA at Pauley Pavilion...'Zona was favored by 2; Russell called for a 40-point Arizona victory. As I recall, the Wildcats rolled to big win, by upwards of 35 points.

I have actually met the proprietor of this site, a retired D-III coach from Illinois, who now lives in Indy. I, for one, am very impressed by his knowledge of the game and the hard work he puts into the site.

Best of all...the site is FREE.

I have used this information to profit 4 of the last 5 days; clearly a very valuable resource.

Check it out at www.russellratings.com and let me know what you think.

Best of luck to all of you.

Guest · Jan 22, 2004

Looks like good stuff chaney...I especially like that it has GB 69-60 and Kansas 81-70 (both cover my plays tonight).

Thanks for the site.

sb

fivedoorsdown · Jan 22, 2004

as i can see from everyones standpoint. and ratings systems and and largely the numbers game, gb-w should win from 7-11 points. books have this at -1 for the other guys. one sentence here comes to mind
" be afraid, be very afraid"
will take my chance to the otherside

chaneykn · Jan 23, 2004

SB...glad I could help. I would have had to lay 13 with KU, and the Ratings talked me out of it. Good call on Wisky-GB, though...I was all over that one.

Notice the largest discrepancy of the night: Pacific. I got it for -4.5, and the Ratings called for a 17-point Pacific win. My biggest play of the night.

Pacific won it by 24.

ballistik · Jan 23, 2004

Very interesting, is it working better with the college or NBA? Look forward to what it says for the weekend

Excell · Jan 23, 2004

Chaneykn,

Do you strictly go with the updated rating in red to determine whether it's a play or not ? Just curious,

Thanks for the info

goatboy · Jan 23, 2004

does he actually give predictions on the games..if so where, or do you have to pay for that

ballistik · Jan 23, 2004

Chaney, obviously the higher the rating the stronger the play in the red? Also, what does the highlighted green mean? There are 2 in green right now. Thanks

kg21sm3 · Jan 23, 2004

Chaney is one of my good friends from school (and handles all of my non-online plays through his local) and he turned me onto this site a few weeks ago. I'm not going to lie and say I've tracked it as well as he has, but I do think I know how it works.

Anyways, onto the questions (note: all of these statements could be wrong - I'm just going by my observations).

Ballistik - so far, this is only a college site. I have no idea whether "Russell" (or whatever the guy running it's name is) has any plans to include NBA in the future though.

Excell - The guy who runs it has his "power ratings" (shown in the first column) and the "updated rating" shown in red, is the adjustment based on various trends. I don't know exactly how the power ratings are tweaked to get the updated ratings, but I know it includes the general home/away, recent games, etc. type stuff, and that the "updated ratings" is the predicted "score" of the game based on all of those factors.

Which leads to the last two questions... as I mentioned above, the "updated ratings" is like a "score" of the game, and the teams that are highlighted in Green are the "strong plays" that the proprietor himself is betting on based on this system. From what I've seen, these plays are mostly games that have a significant difference between the game's actual line and the predicted line based on the updated ratings.

Hope all of this helps. If you have any more specific questions - I'll be putting in a call to Chaney within the hour with tonight's early plays and I can ask him and see if he knows any more than I do.

ballistik · Jan 23, 2004

Thanks KG, my question is what is he using for determining "his line" vs the books line. Im trying to figure out and dont quite understand. Say the line is 4 on the favorite but his rankings say 10, where and how is he coming up with that and where do I get that when I look at the chart?

I hope that made sense.
Thanks

ballistik · Jan 23, 2004

Also he has wins and losses on the site, where is he posting the projected outcome or what do you have to do to figure it out?

Man I need a beer

kg21sm3 · Jan 23, 2004

Ballistik - if I understand your first question properly, "his line" is the difference in the two ratings.

For example, look at today's Yale-Brown game. We can all get Yale with our book for around +1. His line for Yale would be around -3 (Subtract Brown's current rating of 65.74 from Yale's current rating of 68.58 to get the "predicted line"). That's what Chaney referred to early regarding Pacific, where the normal line was -4 or whatever and the "predicted line" was like Pacific -25.

As for the 2nd question - I assume you're referring to the table on the page with the calendars... I asked Chaney, and we're pretty sure that all of those records are just the YTD/weekly/daily records for the predictions not accounting for the spread. Example: the system predicted Pacific would win yesterday, that would be a "win" whether or not they covered the spread.

The only one we're not sure of is the "Key Games" one (the green highlighted plays on the main page) they may or may not be with the spread, but we don't think they are.

Hope that answers some of your questions.

ballistik · Jan 23, 2004

Thanks, thats what I thought it was, but wasnt completely sure. He sent me an email and says those in green are best plays. Would love to see sometime the record with the spread. But a very informative site.

RonTrout · Jan 24, 2004

Here is another

http://tbeck.freeshell.org/bb/basketball.html

that tracks several index sites and tracks progress. Usually updated by mid morning.
Good info for comparison.

SMService · Jan 24, 2004

Am I the only one who can't open the game ratings page today ?

MrTeaser · Jan 24, 2004

I havent been able to all day as well

Smartpicks · Jan 24, 2004

I can't either.

ballistik · Jan 24, 2004

Me four

kg21sm3 · Jan 24, 2004

No luck here either...

Chaney is cursing up a storm whenever I call him. "I'm flying blind here!!!"

So at least I have that enjoyment going for me, even if the site doesn't appear to be working today.