A proactive NCAA betting angle

CharlieMaxwell · Mar 23, 2004

The ability to make the three-point shot is overrated at NCAA Tournament time because of quicker and more agile defenders. In the postseason, long-range sharpshooters get fewer uncontested shots.

Get a formula for handicapping the remaining teams in the tourney by reading Arne Lang's latest article which can be found on the home page at www.theprescription.com

Charlie

TheGeneral+ · Mar 23, 2004

Thanks Arne & charlie.

I am not a fan of the 3 point shot. Live by the 3, die by the 3. To much luck involved depending on an average chance of what, 30%?

The Quality Shot Rating Index seems to back the theory that one is better off taking advantage of lesser range shots for better %, but one cannot cap who will be hot from tri land and who will not, although with this small sample it was successful.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>“Simply put,” says O’Keefe, “a team is rewarded for taking two’s and further rewarded for making them; it is penalized for taking three’s, but the penalty is mitigated by making them.”
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This factor is not seen by many. Rapid fire 3 point shots are boring and take away from the true team concept of fundamental basketball. If your team is making them today @ 40%, they are likely setting you up for a big fall in an upcoming game.

Fishhead · Mar 23, 2004

The 3-point shot is similar to a parachutter using a back-up chutte.

Rogthedodger · Mar 23, 2004

Check out St. Joe's QSR General, kinda makes you like Wake huh?

TheGeneral+ · Mar 23, 2004

If Wake has the better frontcourt, then I like their chances better. If St Joe is hitting long range 3's, then I like their chances. I can only find the answer to one of those questions before the game is played.