A play for tonight and some new stuff..

[Sekrah]

Trying to regroup myself after having the worst day in my gambling life.

Been working on "game ratings" and trying to play off patterns.. here's what I have tonight. Lower # = better performance. Ignore the opponent. These #'s are already opponent strength adjusted.

CS Northridge @ UCLA

CS Northridge Game Ratings
25 - Stanford - Away
20 - Cal St. Bakersfield - Away
22 - New Mexico - Away
25 - Rider - Away
25 - Drexel - Away

Nothing special in here from Northridge. Since the 20 on the Bakersfield game they've gone backward. However, I think this is a fairly positive pattern for coming into tonight. After two bad ones in a row, teams usually move forward a little bit. Don't think they're going to breakout, but should play a little better than they have been. Should get to their Bakersfield/New Mexico performances.

CS Northridge predicted rating for tonight: 21

UCLA Game Ratings
10 - Prairie View A&M - Home
10 - Miami OH - Home
16 - Michigan - Neutral
12 - Southern Illinois - Neutral
7 - Florida International - Home
13 - Texas - Away

Crumby performance vs Michigan. They moved forward in their next two, before bouncing away to Texas. I expect them to have a 9 or 10 here back at home.

UCLA predicted rating for tonight: 9

Each point difference is worth 2.5 points. 12 points difference = UCLA -30.

Northridge will have to pull an 18 or 17 to cover this one, or with a 20, will need UCLA to do a 12 or 13 on their home court? Doesn't seem too likely.

Play: UCLA -21.5 for 2 units.

 

[Sekrah]

Check that.. Each point difference is worth 2.0.. 12 pts = UCLA -24.

Still playing it for 2 units..

 

[Sekrah]

As of right now, it looks like CS Northridge is playing closer to their 25's.. If this continues, it'll end up a 30+ pt loss easily.

 

[Sekrah]

But if they start playing better like they did at the end of the half, they can keep it under the number.

 

[marin0s02]

wow so what we play 2nd half??

 

[Sekrah]

Not touching it.. Letting my bet ride.

 

[marin0s02]

-9

 

[Sekrah]

Can't Beat a Fixed Game Folks!! You just can't do it. When you take the wrong side of these games you are just SCREWED

:hump:

 

[Sekrah]

Preliminary Ratings for tonights game:

UCLA 14
Cal St. Northridge 20


As predicted, Cal St. Northridge returned to their Bakersfield performance.

Northridge will have to pull an 18 or 17 to cover this one, or with a 20, will need UCLA to do a 12 or 13 on their home court? Doesn't seem too likely.

Unfortunantly UCLA regressed. Perhaps I should of recognized the pattern a little better. The 13 at Texas wasn't a god-awful effort that might motivate. And their last home game was a 7 against FIU. This may have been the "bounce" from that one as they took CSN too lightly. Particularly when it came to defense, UCLA put up very little effort.

 

[GATA]

sucks