Last weekend I got a rude welcoming to the new season of college football. I strayed from some of my primary handicapping principles, and I paid the price. The setback, however, is only a challenge to see how long it takes before I'll be in the black again.
Last week total: 4-10 -37.6*
10* plays: 0-3 -33.3*
2nd half plays: 0-1 -7.7*
YTD total: 9-12 -25.1*
The following games are at the lines that I actually played. When I post games this early in the week, it is to help you get the best line possible before it moves. At this point I already have 2 10* games lined up, as well as a 15* GOM.
10* Florida St +2
If the public is on Miami, which is a good possibility, this line could go up, but I'm taking it as it is. FSU is my sleeper to win the National Championship this year. Rix is a 4-year starter at QB, and this year we'll see a more mature version of him. He is surrounded by the usual FSU collection of talent. Miami, on the other hand, should be looking for a dropoff in production this year. They have a lot of talent of their own, but since the last pro draft, it's not quite the same as it has been. The Noles are the better team this year, and they will make a statement Friday night. I look for them to win straight-up.
10* Alabama -10
I was on Ole Miss with a 10* play last week, and it didn't work out. Everything went as planned except Spurlock at QB. Bobby Bowden used to say about young players, "He has an awful lot of God-given talent, but the question is, will he faint the first time he goes out on the field in front of all those people." Well, Spurlock fainted against Memphis. He did very little of what he is capable of. Obviously he has a little work to do before he'll be in a groove. Meanwhile, Bama is at home and very mindful of the fact that Ole Miss beat them badly last season. They will be very focused on taking the Rebels down, and in Tuscaloosa they are going to be able to accomplish that. Ole Miss is very capable of covering this spot -- hell, they are capable of winning straight-up, I just don't think Bama's backyard will be the place that Spurlock gets untracked. In some future game we will see what an amazing athlete he truly is, but this is not that game. Experienced Brodie Croyle should be playing on a whole other level on Saturday. The Tide gets their revenge.
15* GOM: Nebraska -13.5
I'm probably crazy having a game this highly rated so early in the season, but I sense a potential, at least partial, blowout coming. Southern Miss is not the team they have been in previous years. There are no impact players, no difference makers, no one in particular for an opponent's defense to even focus on. Their vaulted defense will not be quite as salty this season as they have been in the past. In past years USM has been very strong against the pass, but most of last year's starters are gone, and the secondary coach has left for Ole Miss. This spread could very possibly be covered by the end of the 1st quarter, and I don't think the Golden Eagles has what it takes for even a backdoor cover. I like Nebraska really big in this game, and am making it my 15* GOM.
7* UConn -14
Duke is opening up their season with two consecuive road games, and I don't think they are going to enjoy their visit to Connecticut. Connecticut is the most unlikely team I can think of to have accomplished what they have over the past 3 years. Now they are at home for the 2nd straight week, and their talent is on a different level that what Duke has to offer. If not an outright blowout, I at least expect a convincing win. Covering two TDs should not be that difficult for these guys against a tired Duke team.
5* Troy St +10.5
You want to get this one before the hook disappears. I predict this line to go lower, and you might consider hopping on it while you can still get those 10.5 points. Troy St is a scrappy team, well-coached, and confident in their abilities. Playing with the big boys is nothing new to them. Mizzou might come in feeling superior and perhaps a little over-confident. I don't think they will be expecting what they will have to deal with here. This is one of those games where the line is mostly dictated by name and public perception, and you might want to look into the possibility of an outright upset. Mizzou, perhaps expecting a relatively easy win, could run into a buzzsaw here. With all due respect to Brad Smith, I think Troy keeps this one closer than anyone might imagine.
These are the games I have at this particular point, and also the ones that I think the lines might easily move against us. If you want any of these particular games, I suggest you hop on them early, as I doubt the oddsmakers will be doing us any favors once the lines begin to move.
As you are aware, most likely I will be adding games throughout the week,including all day Saturday. Hopefully this is the week I enjoy a little payback to the book. Meanwhile, all the best to your own good fortunes.
Be back later.
Last week total: 4-10 -37.6*
10* plays: 0-3 -33.3*
2nd half plays: 0-1 -7.7*
YTD total: 9-12 -25.1*
The following games are at the lines that I actually played. When I post games this early in the week, it is to help you get the best line possible before it moves. At this point I already have 2 10* games lined up, as well as a 15* GOM.
10* Florida St +2
If the public is on Miami, which is a good possibility, this line could go up, but I'm taking it as it is. FSU is my sleeper to win the National Championship this year. Rix is a 4-year starter at QB, and this year we'll see a more mature version of him. He is surrounded by the usual FSU collection of talent. Miami, on the other hand, should be looking for a dropoff in production this year. They have a lot of talent of their own, but since the last pro draft, it's not quite the same as it has been. The Noles are the better team this year, and they will make a statement Friday night. I look for them to win straight-up.
10* Alabama -10
I was on Ole Miss with a 10* play last week, and it didn't work out. Everything went as planned except Spurlock at QB. Bobby Bowden used to say about young players, "He has an awful lot of God-given talent, but the question is, will he faint the first time he goes out on the field in front of all those people." Well, Spurlock fainted against Memphis. He did very little of what he is capable of. Obviously he has a little work to do before he'll be in a groove. Meanwhile, Bama is at home and very mindful of the fact that Ole Miss beat them badly last season. They will be very focused on taking the Rebels down, and in Tuscaloosa they are going to be able to accomplish that. Ole Miss is very capable of covering this spot -- hell, they are capable of winning straight-up, I just don't think Bama's backyard will be the place that Spurlock gets untracked. In some future game we will see what an amazing athlete he truly is, but this is not that game. Experienced Brodie Croyle should be playing on a whole other level on Saturday. The Tide gets their revenge.
15* GOM: Nebraska -13.5
I'm probably crazy having a game this highly rated so early in the season, but I sense a potential, at least partial, blowout coming. Southern Miss is not the team they have been in previous years. There are no impact players, no difference makers, no one in particular for an opponent's defense to even focus on. Their vaulted defense will not be quite as salty this season as they have been in the past. In past years USM has been very strong against the pass, but most of last year's starters are gone, and the secondary coach has left for Ole Miss. This spread could very possibly be covered by the end of the 1st quarter, and I don't think the Golden Eagles has what it takes for even a backdoor cover. I like Nebraska really big in this game, and am making it my 15* GOM.
7* UConn -14
Duke is opening up their season with two consecuive road games, and I don't think they are going to enjoy their visit to Connecticut. Connecticut is the most unlikely team I can think of to have accomplished what they have over the past 3 years. Now they are at home for the 2nd straight week, and their talent is on a different level that what Duke has to offer. If not an outright blowout, I at least expect a convincing win. Covering two TDs should not be that difficult for these guys against a tired Duke team.
5* Troy St +10.5
You want to get this one before the hook disappears. I predict this line to go lower, and you might consider hopping on it while you can still get those 10.5 points. Troy St is a scrappy team, well-coached, and confident in their abilities. Playing with the big boys is nothing new to them. Mizzou might come in feeling superior and perhaps a little over-confident. I don't think they will be expecting what they will have to deal with here. This is one of those games where the line is mostly dictated by name and public perception, and you might want to look into the possibility of an outright upset. Mizzou, perhaps expecting a relatively easy win, could run into a buzzsaw here. With all due respect to Brad Smith, I think Troy keeps this one closer than anyone might imagine.
These are the games I have at this particular point, and also the ones that I think the lines might easily move against us. If you want any of these particular games, I suggest you hop on them early, as I doubt the oddsmakers will be doing us any favors once the lines begin to move.
As you are aware, most likely I will be adding games throughout the week,including all day Saturday. Hopefully this is the week I enjoy a little payback to the book. Meanwhile, all the best to your own good fortunes.
Be back later.
