Let's begin with the facts:
Last weekend: 11-7 (+13.2*)
CFB YTD: 24-27 (-51.8*)
10* plays: 2-4
15* plays: 0-1
I can't believe I've gotten off to such a slow start. I've especially done poorly in big games, which accounts for a clear deficit in units.
I love a magnificent challenge:breakit:
I will either gradually reduce the deficit until I am in the black again, or I will be ahead hardly before anyone realized I was behind:drink:
Needless to say, I'm looking for a big weekend. Here's what I got so far. You know me, I'm likely to add a game at any point, and I'll probably add my last play sometime Saturday night. I do whatever is necessary to win.
Saturday:
15* Inside Info play: Ole Miss -3 (bought the hook; by Saturday you might not need to)
I didn't have time for any write-ups last week, so I'll make up for it with this one. I was amazed that this line opened at 4, and I was even more amazed that it went down. I guess the public perspection is that Ole Miss has looked quite mediocre so far, and now they have to fly across the country to a 7,000+ altitude to play while plagued with major injuries. Senior WR Bill Flowers, who caught 10 passes last week against Vanderbilt, is out, as well as 2 of the top 3 DTs. Starting LT Bobby Harris has hardly played any this season. So why wouldn't this team, exhausted from a come-from-behind win against Vanderbilt last week go up there and be humiliated by a pesky Wyoming team?
Public perception is one thing; the facts are another.
Let's get this in perspective. First Wyoming: Wyoming is a team unanimously picked to finish in the cellar of the Mountain West, and return all of 12 starters from a terrible season last year. Of course, they have a new coach, a new attitude, and a former juco superstar Joe Harris at TB. The future looks great at Wyoming, but get real. The Rebels see running backs as good as Harris week in and week out in the SEC. No matter how spirited they are, there's no way the Cowboys can match the Rebels in talent, athleticism, and speed.
So much for Wyoming; let's look at Ole Miss. Here is the reality of their 1-2 season so far. Let's start at QB. We all knew there would be a letdown at QB this year because of the loss of Eli Manning, one of the best college QBs I ever saw. Enter Micheal Spurlock, an extraordinary athlete -- he benches 400, runs a 4.4, has a stronger arm than Eli, is a great team leader, was leading scorer in basketball in high school as well as being a superb shortstop with MLB possibilities. Trouble is, Micheal just couldn't get the team going. His passes went haywire. He would make a terrific RB, WR, or DB, but he's just not a major college QB.
In the 2nd half of the Bama game, Coach Cut decides to throw in backup Ethan Flatt, and Flatt immediately drives the team down the field for it's first TD. I was watching this on TV, it was amazing watching the team being transformed during that drive. Ethan, 6-6 and 220, a classical drop-back passer whose father is the president of David Lipscomb University in Nashville, suddenly made the whole team feel as though Eli was back. Flatt had learned that cool demeanor of Eli's; the extraordinary poise. The team responded to him. He could read defenses and put the ball where it needed to go. One fan referred to Ethan as 'Eli-Lite.'
So Flatt started his first game against Vandy and did fine. He knows how to manage a game and he doesn't make mistakes. The team will get settled down offensively now. Hopefully Spurlock will move to another position, so that Flatt's backup will be redshirt freshman sensation, Robert Lane. Lane, a former Parade All-American, approached mythical proportions as a legend in the area surrounding Monroe, LA. Lane, 6-3 and 230, fast and athletic, is a combination of Manning and Spurlock.
Another reason for the offensive mediocrity was the play of the OL. These guys are as talented as any OL in the SEC. But losing Harris at LT threw things off-kilter. The freshman backup couldn't do the job so there had to be some juggling: 6th man to RG, RG to RT, RT to LT, there, that's more like it. These guys are regaining their balance and coming together as a unit again. So in a sense, the true Rebel offense will come together for the first time this season at Wyoming.
Flowers injury affects depth to a degree, but the Rebs apparently have WRs growing on trees down there. Flowers will be replaced by a guy who's taller and faster. No problem. Depth or talent is not an issue at WR.
At Vandy last week, 3 DTs were out, so 3 DTs (one starter and the two 3rd teamers) rotated the whole game. Junior starter McKinley Boykin played like 2 DTs all by himself. By next year he will be recognized as one of the elite DTs in the SEC. The two 3rd teamers are back, and one of the 2nd teamers will be back to join them. Ole Miss has never had depth like this on the DL, but right now they can handle it.
The defense, although only returning 4 starters to begin with, will be one of the strongest units the Rebs have had in years. All the departed starters were replaced by guys who were bigger, stronger, quicker, and more talented. I could write a whole column about the defense alone, but I won't go into details.
Here's the thing about Eli Manning's legacy: He was not only a difference-maker, he was a program-builder. Eli was used as a recruiting tool each of the 5 years he was at Ole Miss. Consequently, the talent level at Ole Miss is considerably higher at every position now than it was before Eli came. Best defense ever, best O-line ever, and a quiet confidence that was absent in the pre-Eli years.
Now here's the kicker: the Rebels don't feel good at all about how they've been playing. They lost two games they thought they should have one, and then they were behind 23-10 to Vandy in the 4th quarter when they let talent take over and win the game in overtime. They feel that they've been playing horribly, and they want to get the real show on the road. Wyoming will be the perfect place to tune up.
So it's not like they're taking a game off. They want to get everything perfected before the bulk of the SEC season gets underway. It's not sandwich game in any sense. The Rebels play Arkansas St for homecoming next Saturday in Oxford. These guys are going up there to get their act together, to dominate, and to win convincing -- just to show themselves that they can do it.
Unless that altitude affects them more than anyone expects, I can't imagine anything less than a blowout. The Cowboys will be willing in the heart, but physically outmanned. The Rebels are coming to play; and they are a much better team than anyone outside Oxford thinks.
One more thing, a trend to consider: Cowboys are 0-8 straight-up and 2-4 ATS against SEC teams, who have beaten them by an average score of 33-11. The trend should continue.
10* NC St +10
OK, I bought it to 10, and even though there's more risked, I love it at 10. I'm too tired from the last write-up, and I just wanted you to get this before the line goes down anymore.
7* Teaser of the Week: Michigan -5.5, under 47 (Pinnacle).
I just love this teaser. I just makes too much sense somehow.
5* Penn St +3.5
Even though this isn't one of my conferences, this game just looks obvious from a NY perspective. Get it while you can get the hook.
More later. Good luck!
Last weekend: 11-7 (+13.2*)
CFB YTD: 24-27 (-51.8*)
10* plays: 2-4
15* plays: 0-1
I can't believe I've gotten off to such a slow start. I've especially done poorly in big games, which accounts for a clear deficit in units.
I love a magnificent challenge:breakit:
I will either gradually reduce the deficit until I am in the black again, or I will be ahead hardly before anyone realized I was behind:drink:
Needless to say, I'm looking for a big weekend. Here's what I got so far. You know me, I'm likely to add a game at any point, and I'll probably add my last play sometime Saturday night. I do whatever is necessary to win.
Saturday:
15* Inside Info play: Ole Miss -3 (bought the hook; by Saturday you might not need to)
I didn't have time for any write-ups last week, so I'll make up for it with this one. I was amazed that this line opened at 4, and I was even more amazed that it went down. I guess the public perspection is that Ole Miss has looked quite mediocre so far, and now they have to fly across the country to a 7,000+ altitude to play while plagued with major injuries. Senior WR Bill Flowers, who caught 10 passes last week against Vanderbilt, is out, as well as 2 of the top 3 DTs. Starting LT Bobby Harris has hardly played any this season. So why wouldn't this team, exhausted from a come-from-behind win against Vanderbilt last week go up there and be humiliated by a pesky Wyoming team?
Public perception is one thing; the facts are another.
Let's get this in perspective. First Wyoming: Wyoming is a team unanimously picked to finish in the cellar of the Mountain West, and return all of 12 starters from a terrible season last year. Of course, they have a new coach, a new attitude, and a former juco superstar Joe Harris at TB. The future looks great at Wyoming, but get real. The Rebels see running backs as good as Harris week in and week out in the SEC. No matter how spirited they are, there's no way the Cowboys can match the Rebels in talent, athleticism, and speed.
So much for Wyoming; let's look at Ole Miss. Here is the reality of their 1-2 season so far. Let's start at QB. We all knew there would be a letdown at QB this year because of the loss of Eli Manning, one of the best college QBs I ever saw. Enter Micheal Spurlock, an extraordinary athlete -- he benches 400, runs a 4.4, has a stronger arm than Eli, is a great team leader, was leading scorer in basketball in high school as well as being a superb shortstop with MLB possibilities. Trouble is, Micheal just couldn't get the team going. His passes went haywire. He would make a terrific RB, WR, or DB, but he's just not a major college QB.
In the 2nd half of the Bama game, Coach Cut decides to throw in backup Ethan Flatt, and Flatt immediately drives the team down the field for it's first TD. I was watching this on TV, it was amazing watching the team being transformed during that drive. Ethan, 6-6 and 220, a classical drop-back passer whose father is the president of David Lipscomb University in Nashville, suddenly made the whole team feel as though Eli was back. Flatt had learned that cool demeanor of Eli's; the extraordinary poise. The team responded to him. He could read defenses and put the ball where it needed to go. One fan referred to Ethan as 'Eli-Lite.'
So Flatt started his first game against Vandy and did fine. He knows how to manage a game and he doesn't make mistakes. The team will get settled down offensively now. Hopefully Spurlock will move to another position, so that Flatt's backup will be redshirt freshman sensation, Robert Lane. Lane, a former Parade All-American, approached mythical proportions as a legend in the area surrounding Monroe, LA. Lane, 6-3 and 230, fast and athletic, is a combination of Manning and Spurlock.
Another reason for the offensive mediocrity was the play of the OL. These guys are as talented as any OL in the SEC. But losing Harris at LT threw things off-kilter. The freshman backup couldn't do the job so there had to be some juggling: 6th man to RG, RG to RT, RT to LT, there, that's more like it. These guys are regaining their balance and coming together as a unit again. So in a sense, the true Rebel offense will come together for the first time this season at Wyoming.
Flowers injury affects depth to a degree, but the Rebs apparently have WRs growing on trees down there. Flowers will be replaced by a guy who's taller and faster. No problem. Depth or talent is not an issue at WR.
At Vandy last week, 3 DTs were out, so 3 DTs (one starter and the two 3rd teamers) rotated the whole game. Junior starter McKinley Boykin played like 2 DTs all by himself. By next year he will be recognized as one of the elite DTs in the SEC. The two 3rd teamers are back, and one of the 2nd teamers will be back to join them. Ole Miss has never had depth like this on the DL, but right now they can handle it.
The defense, although only returning 4 starters to begin with, will be one of the strongest units the Rebs have had in years. All the departed starters were replaced by guys who were bigger, stronger, quicker, and more talented. I could write a whole column about the defense alone, but I won't go into details.
Here's the thing about Eli Manning's legacy: He was not only a difference-maker, he was a program-builder. Eli was used as a recruiting tool each of the 5 years he was at Ole Miss. Consequently, the talent level at Ole Miss is considerably higher at every position now than it was before Eli came. Best defense ever, best O-line ever, and a quiet confidence that was absent in the pre-Eli years.
Now here's the kicker: the Rebels don't feel good at all about how they've been playing. They lost two games they thought they should have one, and then they were behind 23-10 to Vandy in the 4th quarter when they let talent take over and win the game in overtime. They feel that they've been playing horribly, and they want to get the real show on the road. Wyoming will be the perfect place to tune up.
So it's not like they're taking a game off. They want to get everything perfected before the bulk of the SEC season gets underway. It's not sandwich game in any sense. The Rebels play Arkansas St for homecoming next Saturday in Oxford. These guys are going up there to get their act together, to dominate, and to win convincing -- just to show themselves that they can do it.
Unless that altitude affects them more than anyone expects, I can't imagine anything less than a blowout. The Cowboys will be willing in the heart, but physically outmanned. The Rebels are coming to play; and they are a much better team than anyone outside Oxford thinks.
One more thing, a trend to consider: Cowboys are 0-8 straight-up and 2-4 ATS against SEC teams, who have beaten them by an average score of 33-11. The trend should continue.
10* NC St +10
OK, I bought it to 10, and even though there's more risked, I love it at 10. I'm too tired from the last write-up, and I just wanted you to get this before the line goes down anymore.
7* Teaser of the Week: Michigan -5.5, under 47 (Pinnacle).
I just love this teaser. I just makes too much sense somehow.
5* Penn St +3.5
Even though this isn't one of my conferences, this game just looks obvious from a NY perspective. Get it while you can get the hook.
More later. Good luck!
k:
