A NY Perspective -- 8/28-8/30

[NYReb]

Last week: 0-1 -5.5*

Big first true weekend coming up. We've had a long time to study these lines, since they've been out for a while. Found a few games I like, some more than others. If you just like a few plays, stick to my 10* or 7*s. If you like more action, consider the 5*s also. I feel pretty good about my 5*s, and wouldn't take them if I didn't.

I'm going to do 1-3 write-ups a day leading up to game time. Usually I post my write-ups around Thursday, but this week is a little unusual. I'll be posting all my lines as I took them since I've taken advantage of the early lines. Most of these games were in my post from last week, and some from my post before that. Anyway, here's the first couple of write-ups.

Thursday:
7* BYU -3
You ever have those games early in the year that, when you look back on it later in the season, you see it should have been a no-brainer? This is the way I see this game. Georgia Tech has all the makings of this year's Tennessee, minus the potential to be very good in the first place. I don't know what to say about Tech except to point out that they aren't all there. I'm not even sure the coach is all there, but that's another story. Meanwhile, the big story at BYU is the hiring of New Mexico's DC who should give BYU one of their better D's in recent memory. They have 10 starters back on that side of the ball, so they have experience. Now they'll have coaching as well. On offense, we should see a lot of Matt Berry to Chris Hale passes, plus effective ball control from RB Marcus Whalen, who has the potential to have a great year. Over the years it hasn't been easy for teams traveling from the South to Provo, and I don't think the Yellow Jackets will enjoy this visit very much at all. Maybe they'll develop into a team later in the season, but BYU is out for blood.

Saturday:
5* Clemson +3.5
Although I see this game as an upset waiting to happen, I'm glad I got down on the +3.5 when I did. After all, I guess it's entirely possible that Georgia could win by a field goal. Actually, Georgia won by a field goal last year in Athens, and I think the tide will turn this season. I'll bet that Tommy Bowden knows Mark Richt better than Mark knows Tommy, and don't you think that maybe Tommy has picked up a few tips from Papa on this game? Georgia is not quite what they were last year, while Clemson should be improved. The Tigers have some of the best WRs in college football, and Charlie Whitehurst is capable of getting them the ball. Meanwhile, the Bulldawg's secondary is a bit banged up, which isn't good news in this particular game. Mostly, Tommy Bowden needs this game like a fish needs water. Mark this game down as huge upset #1.

Write-ups on the following games, and possibly more, will follow in this same thread.

Ole Miss -12.5
South Florida +17.5
Oklahoma St +8
Auburn -3
FSU -15.5
Miss St +5
UConn -5.5

[This message was edited by NY Reb on August 27, 2003 at 03:22 PM.]

[This message was edited by NY Reb on August 28, 2003 at 05:14 PM.]

 

[upstatenycapper]

NY Reb:

Though I dont follow BYU like I once did, use caution when analyzing the offense.

Matt Berry and Lance Pendleton are not that good. The offensive line lost Keele, Herring, and Rykert, and I dont believe BYU will be able to replace the likes of wr Mahe and te Nead.

If Whalen goes down, BYU's running game is in big trouble.

Just an opinion on the game. I'm off it.

Any thoughts on Utah-Utah-State?

 

[NYReb]

Off of that one. Thanks for sharing your perspective, though. I enjoy hearing feedback on anything remotely pertaining to college football.

 

[NYReb]

5* Wake Forest +13
Carib still has this at +12.5. I took it and bought an extra half point. Some books have this as low as 11.5. I keep looking at this game, and I can't see any reason why BC should be a 13 point favorite. Wake only returns 10 starters, but to stick with the same theme, BC only returns 11 starters themselves. In addition, they play Penn St the following week in a game they are bound to be more excited about than this one. With a new QB, the Eagles will play conservatively and try to run a lot of time off the clock. I see BC winning by 10 at the most, and it could be even closer than that. The Eagles have a habit of running it up on the creampuffs, but Wake Forest is no creampuff. Take the points.

 

[NYReb]

5* South Florida +17.5
Starting to worry that this might be a very popular play, yet I've had this game circled all summer. A team in their third year of D-1 up against a traditional power makes they line higher than it should be. Don't think even Shula can come in during fall practice and develop an offensive system in such a short time. What's more, they have mighty Oklahoma to butt heads with the following week, so they will probably keep their offense very vanilla. These two factors lead me to believe that it will be a low-scoring game. In a low-scoring game, I doubt that there will be a 17.5 points difference between these two teams. Somehow I even have a feeling that this game will be shockingly close. Once again, take the points.

More to follow.

 

[Proman]

Good write-ups

I share the same sentiment regarding S.Florida. I am a little concerned about the popularity of the play. Bama has hardly had the time to learn Shula's new system. I took S.Florida early on because of the line value. Last year Bama opened up against Middle Tennessee laying just about the same amount of points with OU on deck. I rate Bama as a better team last year than this year and S.Florida as considerably better than Middle Tennessee. The pressure is on Bama here and I think it will be difficult for them to dominate and cover the number.

As for BC/Wake, I would lean to Wake as well because I like Grobe. However, I am not sure that I will make the play.

 

[silver7]

My bet on this is as much AGAINST Bama as pro S Fla. Shula has never been a head coach at any level, and had zero tm respect w/Miami. Also Tide bringing in new offense. I just don`t see many pts here so I also may go w/the U.

 

[muffinman]

Ny Reb,
I like your call with Wake. I am from the BC area and I think this team is going to be mediocre at best this year. I also like your point that this is the first start for BC new QB, so they will look to pound the ball. Wake should definitely be able to keep this one close, if not win outright.

 

[NYReb]

5* Oklahoma St +8
What can I say, Nebraska don't impress me much. They're breaking in 6 new assistants, including 2 new coordinators, and 10 new starters. They are a relatively slow team overall. They have a couple of lineman worthy of conference honors, but no skill players to speak of. OK St has QB Josh Fields, RB Tatum Bell, and WR Rashaun Woods, plus a lot of momentum. The only thing that bothers me is a pair of undersized OTs, but I think they'll work that out. I see a close game here, decided by a TD or less. That being the case, I'll take the underdog who, IMO, has as good of chance as winning as the favorite. Once again, take those points!

 

[NYReb]

5* Connecticut -5.5
This is a strange game to cap. If you'd told me 2 years ago that I'd be taking UConn as a favorite over a Big 10 team I'd have said no way. Even so, we have an up and coming team who averaged 31 points a game against a down and out team who has 18 (!) scholarship players on defense. This will be the inaugural game at Rentschier Field, the brand new 40,000 seat stadium that is the Huskies' new home. I expect them to be fired up. UConn has taken to 1-A football a lot faster than I ever expected, and they should have no trouble with these Big 10 wannabes.

 

[NYReb]

7* Florida St -15.5
I actually got this game at 14.5, but then took it again at 15.5, and that's the line I'll use for the purpose of this post. There are two keys to this game. One is that FSU is far more talented than the Tarheels. The other is that their attitude is to show people that they are back, that they are as good as they ever were. They will come in fired up The only weak link FSU has could be the OL, but that's due to lack of experience, not lack of talent. If you follow recruiting, you know that these guys up front were all heavily recruited and have talent to spare. Two more things to consider: One is that FSU outscored ACC opponents by an average of 16.6 points a game last year, while North Carolina was outscored by ACC opponents by an average of 21.5 points a game last season. The other is that the last time the Noles were in Chapel Hill the Heels beat them 41-9. That left a sore point the Noles would like to take care of this Saturday. Beating them 40-14 last year was part of it, and beating them in Chapel Hill will finish it.

7* Ole Miss -12.5
This line dipped to 12.5 for a few hours one day, and I grabbed it. I would still take this game up to -14 with confidence. There are those who will say Vandy always plays Ole Miss tight, and this is usually true. This game, however, is similar to the FSU-NC game in that Ole Miss is much more talented than Vandy, and they are going to come out fired up in a way they usually aren't for this game. It's the first game of the season and also the first SEC game. Also, the Rebels have worked hard all spring, summer, and fall towards being a more physical, hard-nosed team. They are bigger, stronger, faster, and more explosive than last year. They are also eager to demonstrate their new personality. Eli Manning is the best QB in the country, and has the second best (next to Georgia) set of WRs in the SEC to throw to. Not only that, they are determined to establish a running game this year, and have the moxie to do it, especially against Vandy's young defenders. On the other side of the ball, this will be the Rebs' best defense in years. I'll just say one thing about the 'Dores -- they are the youngest team in the SEC, with 16 of 22 starters being freshmen or sophomores. Only one senior starts, and there's only six on the whole team. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is loaded with experienced senior leadership. I think the Rebels will start off their season in fine style by outscoring Vanderbilt considerably.

 

[NYReb]

I just cancelled out my -3.5 wager on BYU and bought a half-point to make it -3. Don't want to lose by a half point if it comes down to a field goal.

 

[NYReb]

OK, here are my two biggest plays this weekend, at the lines that I got them. (My 2 7*s are above.)

10* Mississippi St +5
Some of you might remember that early last season I warned everyone to get off Miss St and to hammer Oregon. The news that State QB was out and that RFR Kyle York was being throw to the wolves on a day's notice had not yet gotten to the media; I picked it up from an MSU message board and quickly shared it here. Outcome was that the Ducks plastered the Dawgs 36-13. This year's meeting is a big payback game for Jackie Sherrill, who has a long memory. Kevin Fant is starting Saturday, and although there was a "competition" for the starting job, there is absolutely no comparison between Fant and York. Fant, a 5th year senior, has been well known in Mississippi ever since he led his high school team to the state championship as a sophomore. He's probably the most underrated QB in the SEC, mostly because his team has had two below par seasons since he's been starting. Now he's primed for his best season ever, and he has a talented and dangerous group of WRs to throw to, which will prove important in this particlar game, as Oregon's secondary is their weak sport. MSU also has two Parade All-American's at tailback, and an OL that's long on talent if short on experience. If fact, the main thing that bothers me about this game is that State's two starting OGs are out, and their backups will be facing a couple of stud DTs in Oregon's Haloti Ngata -- the top DT in the country coming out of high school -- and Igor Shannksy, who both check in at over 300 pounds. The Dawg's defense will be more like their old selves this year. The DL is experienced and talented, and 6-6, 300 pound DT Tommy Kelly is a definite pro prospect. The linebackers boast 2 more Parade All-American's, while the secondary has another two themselves. Trouble is, all 6 these A-As are 5 sophomores and one freshman. Still, there's talent and potential galore. Add to this the fact that the Ducks are going to experience culture shock from the moment they land in Starkville. They are not going to enjoy the southern humidity or the raucous night crowd. Everything considered, I like MSU a lot in this game, which I fully expect them to win outright. The current line of +3.5 has a lot of value, as there's no way Oregon will win this more than a field goal, and that's if they bring their A game. Oregon might do better in the PAC, while State might do worse in the SEC, but for this particular game take the Bulldogs all the way.

10* Auburn -3
I watched this line move from a pick'em to -3 and then I jumped it before it rose even a half-point more. You can still find this at 3.5 at several books, and I advise you to buy the hook, as a field goal could easily decide this game. These are two of the most talented squads in the land. USC could beat anyone on a given day, as they have premier talent across the board. Their offense will be proficient and their defense nasty. However, much like Oregon, this will not be a good night to venture into the South. They will not enjoy Jordon-Hare stadium, as the volume gets intense from the almost 90,000 bloodthirsty Auburn supporters. Everyone knows about Auburn's RBs, but few fully appreciate QB Jason Campbell, who's going to be coming into his own this year. He's finally ready to display his considerable physical talents. USC's WRs will give the Tigers' secondary some matchup problems, but brand new QB Matt Leinart will experience a shaky and uncomfortable initiation in this situation. All things considered, I see Auburn winning by around 10, and by a touchdown at the least. Again, these are two of the top teams in America, and this should be one of the season's very best games, with the home team coming out on top.

 

[NYReb]

To put it all in perspective, here are all the games I'm taking through Saturday:

Thursday
7* BYU -3

Saturday
5* South Florida +17.5
5* Wake Forest +12.5
5* Clemson +3.5
5* Oklahoma St +8
5* Connecticut -5.5
7* Florida St -15.5
7* Ole Miss -12.5
10* Auburn -3
10* Mississippi St +5

Good luck to everyone, and enjoy your weekend!

[This message was edited by NY Reb on August 28, 2003 at 05:17 PM.]

 

[hansenbros.]

thanks -- BIG 1st weekend. nice write-ups!

GL

 

[drunkguy]

thanks reb...excellent write ups. Don't agree with all the picks but appreciate the info

Good luck this weekend!

 

[whity]

I love the Auburn Play I have 5* on it as in 500, the tigers are well prepared and well conditioned too. Tell those Cali boys to get ready for some thick humidity even at night. I have the Tigers winning by 10+, good luck Reb.

 

[DR.DEATH]

BEST OF LUCK.

WE ARE ON ALOT OF THE SAME GAMES.
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A VERY NICE WEEKEND!

 

[NYReb]

Thanks a lot for the comments and support, guys. I appreciate it immensely. Best of luck to each of you. I'm believing we're all going to enjoy our best season ever as a community.

And what we can conceive and believe, we can achieve

 

[NYReb]

I'm upping tonight's play on BYU -3 to 7*.

7* BYU -3 (bought the hook)