A NY Perspective -- 11/4 --11/8 (15* SEC GOY)

Search

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
Last week: 7-3-1 (+25.9*)
Last two weeks: 16-7-1 (+63.5)

15* SEC Game of the Year!
Alabama -9

I don't like releasing this game so early in the week, but I grabbed this line Sunday night and think it's going to go much higher as the week goes alone. Personally, I don't think it can get high enough by Saturday for Bama to lose this cover. Miss St has packed it in for the season and are waiting to see who their new coach will be. Bama is at least in the midst of rebuilding their program. State is totally overmatched in this contest. The Tide will wipe them off the field. I guess this doesn't sound like a very scientific analysis, but that doesn't matter. I don't have to write an analysis, but I know a big game when I see one. Since I'm posting it now, you might as well get it now -- especially get it before it goes over 10, even though I expect Bama to win by at least 20.

More games later, including a 10*.
 

BIGBUCK+

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
62
THANKS NY REB TOOK BAMA IT'S AT -10 ALREADY BUT LIKE THE BET.LOOKING FOWARD TO YOUR 10# THANK'S FOR YOUR WORK. GAMES EVERY DAY. STAY ON YOUR ROLL.
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
Thursday:
7* South Carolina +7.5
OK, guys, this is a no-brainer. From 7 OTs on Saturday to a Thursday night game is not a good situation for the Hogs. If Cocks play the way they did in the 4th quarter against Ole Miss, this will be an outright upset. Has gone down to 7 at some places, so get it now if you want the hook in your favor.
 

tiger74

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
61
Hi ny reb,
was wondering on your thoughts of ksu -18 vs iowa st. i've played against iowa st a couple of times this year the last few weeks and they have been getting pummeled. i was thinking of playing against them again this week for the game and first half. Any thoughts on this games would be appreciated.

Thanks.
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
tiger, I'm not gonna venture a guess on that one. I gotta be more disciplined. For years I've specialized in the SEC, ACC, Big East, and C-USA. If I stay within those conferences, I do good. Last week I went 7-3-1, and 2 of my losses (Ok St, Mich St) were out of my "territory." If I'd stuck to my four conferences I would've gone 7-1-1, which would've been much more profitable. I'm not going "outside" anymore unless it looks to be a really obvious situation. I'd truly be guessing if I had any input on the game you asked about, and that's not the way to make money.

Best of luck to you!
 

tiger74

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
61
thank you sir. i've been following your picks as well as a couple of others. thank you for your insights and picks. keep up the wonderful work.
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
7* Ole Miss +8 (Carib)
This Ole Miss team is peaking at just the right time. Auburn is a HUGE game for them -- especially since Tuberville is the coach that abandoned them without saying bye-bye. Even bigger, though, is that every Rebel is fully aware that they are the only team in the SEC West who's never been to the SEC Championship game, and they know they have a real chance this year to get there. All they have to do is beat Auburn and LSU. A huge chore, yet possible with a few breaks and big plays. Auburn's pass defense is not the greatest, and their secondary will have all kinds of problems with the Rebs' speedy and talented WRs. They'll probably come after Eli, and if they do he'll pick them apart. I still say that Eli is the best QB is college football, and I'd bet anything he goes further in the pros than any other QB in college right now. He'll come through in this big game. Ole Miss OL is talented, experienced, and physical. They'll protect Eli and open holes for the vastly improved running game. Rebel defense is the best it's been in years, particularly against the run, which will come in handy in this game. Their "weakness" so far is pass defense, but Jason Campbell and the Auburn WRs will not be able to exploit that. It'll be a challenge beating Auburn on the road, but the Rebs are up to a good challenge. They believe in themselves now. Great game to watch on CBS.

7* Tennessee +13 (bought half point)
Just because Miami got hammered by Virginia Tech doesn't mean they're going to somehow be superteam in the next game. Tennessee is down this year, but so are the Canes. Neither are the superteams of old. Miami was lucky to beat FSU in the rain -- bet they couldn't do it again. In my book they are highly overrated. So, don't think that much of the Vols either, but I think this game will be closer than the spread. Will the Canes be fired up or deflated after their loss? Never can tell. Tennessee has the defense and the running game to keep it close.
 

muffinman

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
657
Reb,
Like the early leans. I really like SC Thurs. night. Arkansas tried every which way they could to lose that game on Sat. night. but they still managed to get the win and cover. I think their offense is stronger than SC def, but factor in Huston "the" Nutt, and the VERY short week, I definitely see SC keeping this one close, if not winning outright. Your play on Ol' Miss scares me. I think Auburn can control the clock w/ it's running game and smack Eli in the mouth w/ their Superior Def. I think Ol' Miss will show it's TRUE colors this wekend. If they pull off the win...they are for real, but odds are they are going to get slapped back to reality. They haven't faced a strong Def all year.
I thank you for the 15* lean on Bama. I see this at 10- and 11 already. Thanks to you I got in at 9-. But the more I look at it, the more I wish I could increase my wager @ 9-. Do you still love it @ 11?
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
muffin, I really feel that this game will be a blowout. If I hang 15* on it, that means I'm putting a lot of dough on it, and I don't want 2 or 3 points either way to make the slightest difference. I see Bama winning by 20 at a minimum. Some very strange things would have to happen in order for State to cover this one. Even so, the truth is that strange things do happen, so nothing is a guarantee. I took it at 9, and I also wanted to put more on it although it was now at 10, and I doubled my bet anyway. So, if I didn't already have my fill of them at 9 and 10, I'd definitely take them at 11. To tell the truth, before I saw the line, I was prepared to take them at -20. Like I said, I don't think the line can go up enough by Saturday for the Dawgs to cover. That's how confident I am.

When I read your take on Auburn/Ole Miss, I get what you mean totally. I am so tempted to take that viewpoint myself. After all, I'm the guy who had a 10* on highly favored Florida covering against Ole Miss, and the Rebs won the game outright in the Swamp. So even I have the tendency to underrate them. I think they are better than people think. Their two losses against Memphis and Texas Tech don't look so bad after seeing how those teams' seasons have gone. So I'm going with them. Maybe your scenario comes true, and I'm prepared for that. Never yet made a bet that I wouldn't be okay if I lost. That particular situation is the pits. But I think Ole Miss has a lot of momentum and confidence and that they will hang in this game. I hope to hell they win, but I'd be surprised if it's not a close game. I like having the 8 points, though. On this game I'd be less comfortable with 7. That's why it is a 7* and not a 15*.
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
Venturing into other conferences:

Since I get Big 10 on ABC and ESPN I guess I gotta learn about this conference at some point. Here's two for this week.

10* Purdue -2.5
Just like Purdue at home a lot more than Iowa on the road. Purdue's fine defense should keep Iowa's offense in check. This is my first 10* out of my usual conferences since I won with a 10* on Oregon over Michigan. (Can you believe that one?)

7* Michigan St +7
Wouldn't be surprised if the Spartans won this one outright. Doesn't anyone think the Buckeyes are overrated?

Pac 10 GOW:
7* California -1
Sometimes I don't understand myself. I had a 10* on Oregon 8 over Michigan and won, and now I'm taking Cal over that same Oregon team that beat Michigan. I also lost on a bet on Cal at Utah, where they lost outright to the Utes. Now why am I taking Cal over Oregon? Just cause it feels right, I guess. I like Cal. I like their coach, and I like the way they play. Now that's what I call a true analysis!

Two more games I'm seriously considering, and I might not post them until tomorrow.

Good luck!
 

Jarbo

Hawkeye-Packer-Yankee
Joined
Jan 20, 2000
Messages
3,514
Watch out on that Purdue bet. Iowa is focused, and knows full well what Purdue is all about. Iowa is healthy now and that will help the offense. FYI I'm going with the Hawks.

Luck
icon_cool.gif


P.S. Reb - Not where you are in upstate NY but I will be in Buffalo on Mon & Tues.
 

JUMBO227

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
714
YOUR 100% RIGHT OHIO STATE IS OVER RATED BUT THE ASSHOLES ALWAYS FIND A WAY TO STICK AROUND, I WOULD STAY AWAY FROM THIS ONE. IOWA IS SUSPECT TO THE LONG BALL, THATS HOW OHIO STATE BEAT THEM. THAT'S PURDUES ASSET, BEWARE.
 

NYReb

Shaman; Prophet; Seer
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
4,106
IOWA IS SUSPECT TO THE LONG BALL, THATS HOW OHIO STATE BEAT THEM. THAT'S PURDUES ASSET, BEWARE.

What does that mean? If I'm on Purdue, what am I supposed to beware of?

Big East GOW:
7* Pittsburgh +5
That's a lot of points for the Panthers to be giving up on their home field. Would it be the same if the whole nation didn't see VT demolish Miami next week? Heck, Pitt might demolish Miami themselves. Panthers are 6-1 ATS in last 7 against the Hokies.
 

CoachLT

"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
Joined
Feb 2, 2002
Messages
5,649
Reb, if a capper worth his salt can't play a game like Pitt,then we are all in the wrong business. LT
icon_smile.gif
 

JUMBO227

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
714
that was a reply to jarbo, I'm a big hawk fan but I see Purdue shredding the hawks by air. Purdue by 10
 

stewie21

Member
Joined
Feb 21, 2001
Messages
4,111
Reb- Like all your plays except Ole Miss. I feel Auburn should win by atleast ten in this one. This line is a trap if I ever saw one, and it looks like it got ya.
 

LSUpete

Active member
Handicapper
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
5,651
Ole miss is gonna chew on AU.

The matchups are not good at all for Auburn: The AU D is overrated, and Eli is gonna pick'em apart. Auburn's D works only when their front 4 can dominate. Then their LBs tee-off on the opposing RBs. Unfortunately, Ole Piss can pass block well, and the AU secondary is going to be exposed again, and it will not be pretty.

Also, the lack of passing threat will allow the Rebs to stack the box. Surprisingly enough, OM is pretty good vs the run this year, and to be honest, the AU OL is overrated.

I see it 35-21, Ole Miss
 

educatedrebel1

THE MEAT VENDOR
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
735
NY REB

GREETINGS MY FELLOW REB!!! LOVE THE PLAYS, EXCEPT I QUESTION, THE MISSISSIPPI PLAY. I'VE ALWAYS PLAYED THE FAVORED UNRANKED TEAM OVER THE RANKED DOG, AGAIN THIS PLAY WORKED BEAUTIFUL THE OTHER DAY IN THE MIAMI, OH, AND BOWLING GREEN GAME. IT SEEMS AS IF THOUGH ITS A TRAP BY THE BOOKS TO GET MISSISSIPPI MONEY. AGAIN THIS TREND IS 5-0 THIS YEAR. OCTOBER 25TH, MISSISSIPPI KNOCKED OFF ARKANSAS, AS AN UNRANKED FAVORITE OVER THE RANKED HOGS....I THINK TOMORROW THE SHOE IS ON THE OTHER FOOT THIS TIME. I TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOUR ANALYSIS ON THE GAME...THE REBELS ARE SMOKING RIGHT NOW, AND THE TIGERS ARE VERY UNPREDICTABLE. I JUST FEEL THIS IS A GAME AUBURN MUST HAVE. BEST OF LUCK BRO...EDDIE REBEL

ALSO......I LIVE IN OHIO...AND YES THE BUCKEYES ARE OVERRATED, I HAVENT WON A GAME WITH THEM THIS YEAR, IF THEY COVER TOMORROW, IT WONT SURPRISE ME..AND IF THEIR BLOWN OUT, AGAIN, IT WONT SURPRISE ME. THE BIGGER QUESTION IS, CAN THE SPARTANS PENETRATE THE BUCKEYES DEFENSE???
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,038,483
Messages
12,888,457
Members
96,104
Latest member
ovescort