This is a solid read. Why defenses might be key to this weeks sides. If you allow < 265 yds and your opponent allows over 265 yds you cover 38-16, or over 70% winners.
from chalk, espn
In our most recent column, we explained how teams coming off a bye week have been historically overvalued; that trend failed to hold up during the divisional round. The top four seeds all advanced, and our system matches went just 1-2 against the spread -- dropping our record to 27-21 ATS (56.25 percent) on the year.
Last season's conference championship preview described how the top two seeds in each conference had been similarly overvalued, particularly when they received prodigious support from the betting public. Unfortunately, with all four favorites advancing last week, that analysis has been rendered more useless than an ejection seat on a helicopter.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found many traditional contrarian strategies have proved ineffective during the playoffs. Although teams receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets have gone 21-17 ATS, teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone just 2-3 ATS.
Throughout the regular season we expounded on how underdogs offer tremendous value in games with low totals, but playoff underdogs have gone just 26-29 against the spread when the closing total is less than 44. This could be related to the fact that the average total increases by roughly two points from the regular season to the postseason.
Two weeks ago in our wild-card round analysis, our statistical filters determined high-scoring teams tend to be valued too highly by square bettors, while stout defenses have consistently delivered.
We quickly learned that there haven't been many woeful defenses in the postseason. Since we originally defined an elite offense as any team who averaged at least 26 points per game, we defined a bad defense as any team who allowed their opponent to score at least that much. Regrettably, there have been only four playoff teams fitting those criteria over the past 12-plus seasons -- and those teams posted a 2-2 record against the spread.The idea that defense wins championships is hardly novel, but it's thought-provoking nonetheless. Defenses allowing fewer than 18 points per game have covered the spread at a 56 percent rate. If we hide duplicates to disregard instances where both teams fit the criteria, that figure rises to 59.7 percent. If elite defenses have a positive expected value, we wanted to know whether inferior defenses had a negative expected value, too.
All four remaining teams ranked within the top 10 in scoring defense during the regular season, and none of these survivors allowed even 20 points against per game. This complicates matters, but we wanted to know what would happen if we scrutinized more recent events.
This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that three of the final four starting quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton -- are former No. 1 overall picks. The fourth remaining quarterback is a four-time Super Bowl champion, and arguably one of the greatest to ever play the position. That these games are so top-heavy at quarterback underscores a crucial fact: Passing attacks are paramount to postseason success.
We hypothesized there would be value fading teams who struggled against the pass, even if they boasted a superb scoring defense during the regular season. More specifically, we believed it would be profitable to bet against teams who had emerged victorious despite legitimate concerns surrounding their secondary.
This theory was quickly validated using our Bet Labs software. Since the start of the 2003 season, teams who allowed at least 250 passing yards in their previous game have gone just 40-57 against the spread. That record drops to a cringe-worthy 29-51 against the spread when they allowed at least 265 passing yards in their previous game.
Since there are several instances in which both teams allowed at least 265 passing yards in their previous game, we hid all duplicates, as they would always produce a 1-1 record. By removing these games, we find teams who allowed fewer than 265 passing yards in their previous game have gone a staggering 38-16 against the spread (70.4 percent) against teams who allowed more than 265 passing yards in their previous game.
Why does this work?
Although square bettors typically overreact to recent results, they tend to place a great deal of importance on the offensive output and limited importance on the defensive output. Our research has proved, time and again, that bettors should target stout defenses over high-scoring defenses -- but public bettors have not followed that trend.
Our analysis found that within our sample, public betting has been incredibly even. Despite the poor performance, a majority of public bettors have supported these porous defenses in roughly 46.3 percent of their postseason games.
We should also note this system has been particularly profitable in the year's most critical games. Since 2003, this system has gone a combined 6-0 against the spread in conference championships and 3-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl.
In the past we have also discussed how bettors tend to overvalue home teams, and how road teams have historically offered a slight edge. Over the past 12 years, visitors have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent rate during the regular season and a 54 percent rate in the playoffs.
That trend can also be seen within our latest system. Our research shows that visitors fitting these criteria have gone 17-6 against the spread (73.9 percent) with +10.67 units won and an absurd 46.4 percent return on investment. That's great news here, since our two system picks feature road teams.
Conference championship round system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos
The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, and so far they've received 78 percent of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sports books. Despite this one-sided public betting, New England has actually dropped from -3.5 to -3. Typically this reverse line movement would indicate sharp money on Denver, but there are a few mitigating factors.
For years, Sports Insights has received the percentage of bets on each game, but last week we struck a deal to begin displaying the percentage of total dollars wagered at select offshore sportsbooks. This information allows us to more accurately assess how public money is affecting the line for every game.
In the AFC championship, the Patriots are receiving 78 percent of spread bets but also more than 80 percent of total dollars wagered. This indicates that both sharp and square bettors like New England as a road favorite. We have seen similar betting on the money line, where the Patriots are receiving 72 percent of bets and nearly 90 percent of total dollars wagered.
The Broncos had one of the league's top defenses this season, but they definitely showed signs of weakness in the divisional round. Ben Roethlisberger was playing through injury and didn't have Antonio Brown, the league's leading receiver -- yet the Steelers still tallied 339 passing yards.
Denver will have an even tougher task on Sunday with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and the rest of the Patriots' offense coming to town. It's also worth noting that Bill Belichick is 33-22 against the spread when he has more than a week to prepare for his opponent -- the best record of any active coach.
The pick: New England -3
Arizona Cardinals (+3) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers opened as 3-point favorites in the NFC championship on Sunday, and they've received 71 percent of public bets thus far. In spite of this lopsided betting, the line has not changed since it opened on Sunday afternoon.
Although we are siding with the public in the early game, we will stick with our contrarian ways and bet against the public in the late game. One of the biggest reasons for this is the aforementioned offshore money percentages.
The Cardinals are receiving just 29 percent of spread bets, yet the actual dollar amount is split evenly. This disparity between the ticket count and dollar amount indicates that wise guys and/or betting syndicates have hammered Arizona in early betting. In other words, this game exemplifies the "Pros vs. Joes" model, with Pros taking the road underdog and Joes taking the home favorite.
In addition to this sharp money indicator, the Cardinals fit the criteria for a number of efficacious betting systems. Research shows that underdogs have gone 33-17 against the spread (66 percent) during the playoffs when their opponent has a winning percentage of at least 80 percent. We also found that playoff underdogs have gone 42-22 against the spread (65.6 percent) when the closing total is higher than 45.
Last week Russell Wilson passed for 366 yards as the Seahawks almost rallied from a 31-point deficit against the Panthers. Some may call those "junk" or "garbage-time" yards, but I think Wilson's performance raised some legitimate concerns about the Panthers highly touted secondary.
Ever since he took over as the Colts' interim head coach back in 2012, Bruce Arians has gone an NFL-best 39-23 (62.9 percent) against the spread. Having last played on Saturday, the two-time coach of the year should benefit from the extra day of rest, too.
The pick: Arizona +3
BOL 2 all!!
from chalk, espn
- co
In our most recent column, we explained how teams coming off a bye week have been historically overvalued; that trend failed to hold up during the divisional round. The top four seeds all advanced, and our system matches went just 1-2 against the spread -- dropping our record to 27-21 ATS (56.25 percent) on the year.
Last season's conference championship preview described how the top two seeds in each conference had been similarly overvalued, particularly when they received prodigious support from the betting public. Unfortunately, with all four favorites advancing last week, that analysis has been rendered more useless than an ejection seat on a helicopter.
Using our Bet Labs software, we found many traditional contrarian strategies have proved ineffective during the playoffs. Although teams receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets have gone 21-17 ATS, teams receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets have gone just 2-3 ATS.
Throughout the regular season we expounded on how underdogs offer tremendous value in games with low totals, but playoff underdogs have gone just 26-29 against the spread when the closing total is less than 44. This could be related to the fact that the average total increases by roughly two points from the regular season to the postseason.
Two weeks ago in our wild-card round analysis, our statistical filters determined high-scoring teams tend to be valued too highly by square bettors, while stout defenses have consistently delivered.
We quickly learned that there haven't been many woeful defenses in the postseason. Since we originally defined an elite offense as any team who averaged at least 26 points per game, we defined a bad defense as any team who allowed their opponent to score at least that much. Regrettably, there have been only four playoff teams fitting those criteria over the past 12-plus seasons -- and those teams posted a 2-2 record against the spread.The idea that defense wins championships is hardly novel, but it's thought-provoking nonetheless. Defenses allowing fewer than 18 points per game have covered the spread at a 56 percent rate. If we hide duplicates to disregard instances where both teams fit the criteria, that figure rises to 59.7 percent. If elite defenses have a positive expected value, we wanted to know whether inferior defenses had a negative expected value, too.
All four remaining teams ranked within the top 10 in scoring defense during the regular season, and none of these survivors allowed even 20 points against per game. This complicates matters, but we wanted to know what would happen if we scrutinized more recent events.
This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that three of the final four starting quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer and Cam Newton -- are former No. 1 overall picks. The fourth remaining quarterback is a four-time Super Bowl champion, and arguably one of the greatest to ever play the position. That these games are so top-heavy at quarterback underscores a crucial fact: Passing attacks are paramount to postseason success.
We hypothesized there would be value fading teams who struggled against the pass, even if they boasted a superb scoring defense during the regular season. More specifically, we believed it would be profitable to bet against teams who had emerged victorious despite legitimate concerns surrounding their secondary.
This theory was quickly validated using our Bet Labs software. Since the start of the 2003 season, teams who allowed at least 250 passing yards in their previous game have gone just 40-57 against the spread. That record drops to a cringe-worthy 29-51 against the spread when they allowed at least 265 passing yards in their previous game.
Since there are several instances in which both teams allowed at least 265 passing yards in their previous game, we hid all duplicates, as they would always produce a 1-1 record. By removing these games, we find teams who allowed fewer than 265 passing yards in their previous game have gone a staggering 38-16 against the spread (70.4 percent) against teams who allowed more than 265 passing yards in their previous game.
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. Allowed >250 pass yards in last game | 57-40 (58.8%) | +15.02 | +15.5% |
| Opp. Allowed >265 pass yards in last game | 51-29 (63.8%) | +20.16 | +25.2% |
| Allow <265 pass yds, Opp >265 pass yds | 38-16 (70.4%) | +20.56 | +38.1% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
Why does this work?
Although square bettors typically overreact to recent results, they tend to place a great deal of importance on the offensive output and limited importance on the defensive output. Our research has proved, time and again, that bettors should target stout defenses over high-scoring defenses -- but public bettors have not followed that trend.
Our analysis found that within our sample, public betting has been incredibly even. Despite the poor performance, a majority of public bettors have supported these porous defenses in roughly 46.3 percent of their postseason games.
We should also note this system has been particularly profitable in the year's most critical games. Since 2003, this system has gone a combined 6-0 against the spread in conference championships and 3-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl.
In the past we have also discussed how bettors tend to overvalue home teams, and how road teams have historically offered a slight edge. Over the past 12 years, visitors have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent rate during the regular season and a 54 percent rate in the playoffs.
That trend can also be seen within our latest system. Our research shows that visitors fitting these criteria have gone 17-6 against the spread (73.9 percent) with +10.67 units won and an absurd 46.4 percent return on investment. That's great news here, since our two system picks feature road teams.
Conference championship round system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Wednesday morning.
New England Patriots (-3) at Denver Broncos
The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate SuperBook, and so far they've received 78 percent of spread bets at our seven contributing offshore sports books. Despite this one-sided public betting, New England has actually dropped from -3.5 to -3. Typically this reverse line movement would indicate sharp money on Denver, but there are a few mitigating factors.
For years, Sports Insights has received the percentage of bets on each game, but last week we struck a deal to begin displaying the percentage of total dollars wagered at select offshore sportsbooks. This information allows us to more accurately assess how public money is affecting the line for every game.
In the AFC championship, the Patriots are receiving 78 percent of spread bets but also more than 80 percent of total dollars wagered. This indicates that both sharp and square bettors like New England as a road favorite. We have seen similar betting on the money line, where the Patriots are receiving 72 percent of bets and nearly 90 percent of total dollars wagered.
The Broncos had one of the league's top defenses this season, but they definitely showed signs of weakness in the divisional round. Ben Roethlisberger was playing through injury and didn't have Antonio Brown, the league's leading receiver -- yet the Steelers still tallied 339 passing yards.
Denver will have an even tougher task on Sunday with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and the rest of the Patriots' offense coming to town. It's also worth noting that Bill Belichick is 33-22 against the spread when he has more than a week to prepare for his opponent -- the best record of any active coach.
The pick: New England -3
The Panthers opened as 3-point favorites in the NFC championship on Sunday, and they've received 71 percent of public bets thus far. In spite of this lopsided betting, the line has not changed since it opened on Sunday afternoon.
Although we are siding with the public in the early game, we will stick with our contrarian ways and bet against the public in the late game. One of the biggest reasons for this is the aforementioned offshore money percentages.
The Cardinals are receiving just 29 percent of spread bets, yet the actual dollar amount is split evenly. This disparity between the ticket count and dollar amount indicates that wise guys and/or betting syndicates have hammered Arizona in early betting. In other words, this game exemplifies the "Pros vs. Joes" model, with Pros taking the road underdog and Joes taking the home favorite.
In addition to this sharp money indicator, the Cardinals fit the criteria for a number of efficacious betting systems. Research shows that underdogs have gone 33-17 against the spread (66 percent) during the playoffs when their opponent has a winning percentage of at least 80 percent. We also found that playoff underdogs have gone 42-22 against the spread (65.6 percent) when the closing total is higher than 45.
Last week Russell Wilson passed for 366 yards as the Seahawks almost rallied from a 31-point deficit against the Panthers. Some may call those "junk" or "garbage-time" yards, but I think Wilson's performance raised some legitimate concerns about the Panthers highly touted secondary.
Ever since he took over as the Colts' interim head coach back in 2012, Bruce Arians has gone an NFL-best 39-23 (62.9 percent) against the spread. Having last played on Saturday, the two-time coach of the year should benefit from the extra day of rest, too.
The pick: Arizona +3
BOL 2 all!!
