A little FYI for you (and a couple plays): Yankess versus Baltimore

[SizzleChest]

Just an FYI and we will see how it plays, but ESPN with their 25 picks for a million contest does their best to get as close to a Pick in every contest thery offer just like other networks such as Wagerline, etc. With that being said they are offering Baltimore/New York as a play to pick the winner. Of course 99% has chosen New York, not to mention these guys are laying heavy chalk...-182 my last count. So, it would only make sense to find Baltimore as the play here, but I am only laying a small play on them...but more importantly wanting to see if when ESPN lays a game as such out there where the favorite is overwhelmingly the play, then is it time to fade and play the big dog.


Baltimore +162 1 unit

Oakland +130 3 units

 

[thekid78]

You will find value against the Yankees the entire season. The lines are always too high. I would love someone to run a study to see how you would do betting AGAINST the Yankees every game this season for ONE unit. I would almost guarantee it would net you a profit.

 

[SizzleChest]

I would totally agree with that statement. Thats not my method in betting baseball, for I'm like many others in finding value through key areas and situations. I will take some cheap value in something like this because as I said ESPN, along with wagerline, does a good job of keeping games at a Pick unless they can sucker folks into something an amature may consider a "lock" such as this game. They also have UNC/MSU as a game to pick. That would make me lean MSU +points tonight, but the only reason I wouldn't be as quick to jump on the Spartan underdog train is because this is the NCAA championship game and may be of "worthy cause" to make a possible game for the Streak. I can assure you that ESPn offering a million dollars is never going to hand out gimmes for possible selections.

 

[eoghater]

The only problem with this is Baltimore is going to be terrible this year, and Guthrie has had an abominable March/WBC up until the regular season. There really isn't that much support you can give for taking Baltimore except for the yanks being ridiculously priced.

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

You may find better value against Yanks later in the series.

Against C.C. I don't think it is.

But goodluck. I'm from Baltimore so I always like to see them knock off the Yankers.

 

[CalvinTy]

SizzleChest, keep in mind that ESPN didn't include the NYY/BAL game because of "toss-up" concept. They included the game because it's on ESPN at 4pm and it allows the daily players to try to cram in several picks per day (which ESPN knows that would bite most people in the azz for the Streak contest).

* CalvinTy

 

[SizzleChest]

Guys, makes sense on each count....but I think every Joe Public in America is expecting the Yankess to win here, so I question why they make them possible even if it is on TV later. I think a total play would be a better way to promote themselves and still have a "tossup" as you say. They have used that method before. I may miss the Captain Obvious message here, but I am willing to play small and see what happens. Aren't thses two teams notorious for putting up numbers against each other? We'll see......

 

[tanner12oz]

the trend on guthrie coming into this game isn't good. i dont see his form doing a 180 and being able to shutdown the yanks and go toe to toe with C.C......sabathia had a slow start last year so i guess you could use that for some baltimore logic......

i ate the chalk on this one...

 

[SizzleChest]

Again, good luck bro...everything is pointing in Yankees direction. As do most of their games.....and the only thing that leaves me in questrion is through a silly streakmaker contest. I realize that isn't much to put money on, so I made it small. More like an action play for me

 

[eoghater]

I think your Oakland play is solid though. Saunders is very hittable.

 

[BBBILLY]

Guys, makes sense on each count....but I think every Joe Public in America is expecting the Yankess to win here, so I question why they make them possible even if it is on TV later. I think a total play would be a better way to promote themselves and still have a "tossup" as you say. They have used that method before. I may miss the Captain Obvious message here, but I am willing to play small and see what happens. Aren't thses two teams notorious for putting up numbers against each other? We'll see......

Joe public is right a little more often than not in baseball. What sways them away is laying the heavy chalk. That is why there is less volume play in baseball as a whole. Good luck! BBB

 

[SizzleChest]

Joe public is right a little more often than not in baseball. What sways them away is laying the heavy chalk. That is why there is less volume play in baseball as a whole. Good luck! BBB

You are correct Billy. I think public faves are right a little over 60% of the time, but that really doesn't weigh in on the conversation we were having. The fact that ESPN is using a heavy favorite for a game in which they award a million dollars is unusual. Why don't all of these contest out there every available line in these streak contests and still award a million dollars. Simple answer is they don't. Look at wagerline, streakmaker, etc....they all stop at -130 lines and for a reason. So why did ESPN decide to use a -182 line? What if someone were at 24 picks? Would it be that simple to win his 25th and aq million dollars? I wouldn't think so, but who knows. I'm on Baltimore here...

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

You may find better value against Yanks later in the series.

Against C.C. I don't think it is.

But goodluck. I'm from Baltimore so I always like to see them knock off the Yankers.

I was wrong here. C.C. is on the ropes.

 

[2PLAYSMAX]

Escaped.

 

[TheJackal]

In 2008:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 423pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=563 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 44pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2121" width=58><COL style="WIDTH: 93pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4534" width=124><COL style="WIDTH: 42pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2048" width=56><COL style="WIDTH: 47pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2267" width=62><COL style="WIDTH: 105pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5120" width=140><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 44pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2157" width=59><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 44pt; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 height=35 rowSpan=2 width=58>team</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 93pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 width=124>Record</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 rowSpan=2 width=56>$ On</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 rowSpan=2 width=62>$ Against</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 105pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 width=140>Over/Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 rowSpan=2 width=64 x:str="$ Over ">$ Over </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl24 rowSpan=2 width=59 x:str="$ Under ">$ Under </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 93pt; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl25 height=18 width=124>W-L (marg, % win)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 105pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl25 width=140>O-U-P (marg, % over)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" height=17>Yankees</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 93pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=124>89-72 (0.44, 55.3%)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 42pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=56> -280 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=62> -565 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 105pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=140>67-89-5 (-0.02, 42.9%)</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=64> -2910 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; WIDTH: 44pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8" class=xl23 width=59> 1490 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Which means that if you were to lay $100 on every Yankee game then the only way you made money is bettign the under.

 

[danden]

This streak for the cash is different. The 7 longest streaks by December 6 go to Bristol to compete in a pickoff. Someone is going to win 1 million.

Also, ESPN isn't giving the money away. Progressive is. 1 million isn't anything to Progressive because Progressive is getting good advertising out of it.

Wagerline uses max -130 moneylines and 100,000 grand prize for survivor because wagerline isn't a huge corporation.

 

[arceo]

horrible replacement for A-rod lol

 

[SizzleChest]

I'm just thinking this could be a useful tool especially when seeing ESPN place heavy favorites for a pick em game, and thats in all sports. They do not lay spreads down to cover, so if you recognize they are using a heavy favorite game then go with the underdog and the points.

 

[JimmyVegas]

I know this stat is late but during the yanks vs o's game......the Orioles have the best opening day record since like 1966............i think it was like 29-14

 

[MacroLimit]

nice call, lotta pissed off people in the picks for a million contest today!