A late season Handicapping tip to my Degenerage friends.

[C-Gold]

Whoa, week 17 feels so much better after a big fat NY Giants 5 unit win on SNF. I kept week 16 light, with big plays on the Colts 2nd half ( win) and NY Giants bout with Carolina ( win), with 1 unit losses to Pitt/Dallas and an MVP prop bet on Peyton Manning. I finished up 6 units with the pending MVP bet. I've had a strong month.


Anyways, I always see many rookie players at the end of the year with all these theories about what is going to happen week 17 based on playoff positioning. They say things like " THE JETS HAVE TO WIN TO GET IN, THEY WILL TRY EXTRA HARD", or, " THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR, THEY WILL REST THEIR STARTERS", or " IT IS EXTRA COLD AND THE BEARS NEED TO WIN TO GET IN, BEARS -3.5".


My point is that rookie cappers take this " need a win" thing too far, and often times teams fall on their face. Even if a team does win ( like the Bears last night), the books shade that line enough so that they can still take the players money ( like last night). Every year though, you see the same stuff. Some team that " controls their own destiny" and " needs a win" gets pounded in a shocking upset that makes Vegas rich. Or some good team resting their starters has the backups shit on the other team.

The past couple years I look to actually fade all the " win to get in" playoff motiviation teams and I believe that angle won last year, but lost the year before. Over a 10 year period though, I'd goess by fading that angle you'd probably win 7 years and lose 3. The books aren't stupid and they look for that extra padding at this time of year when all the rookies think they have it figured out.

My thing is that you should have already made your money this year. Don't chase, and don't pound some team because they " need" to win or the other team is resting their starters. Just something to watch out for, my 2 cents
:toast:

 

[midman2161]

Exactly.. lines are sharper than ever right now. There is a reason why Dallas and Philadelphia were 2 of the most public plays this past weekend- either would have all but locked up a playoff spot with a win (with Dallas at home). Meanwhile, Washington had nothing to play for, and neither did GB last night. Not one of the 3 between Dallas, PHI, and CHI covered, and 2 of the 3 (and you could argue it should have been all 3) lost straight up. These opponents are not going to just roll over, especially if they are division rivals like Washington and GB were.

It is really important to know the match-ups going in, as well as what the teams' strategies will be. Giants would be favored over Minny, but Minny's playoffs are on the line whereas Gmen will be resting starters. Will Eli play one half? Or at all? And games like Tenn-Indy: both teams are locked into playoff spots, so who knows the strategy.. Dungy has gotten burned by giving all his starters the last week off, so he may be more hesitant to put in Sorgi over Manning. Meanwhile, if it does end up being a battle of the backups, most would take Vince Young over Jim Sorgi any day of the week. So really , you have to find games that have value, and even then probably avoid the bigger bets.

 

[Johnny~Vegas]

You are right, but it hast happened the last 2 years until finally it swung back this year. The Titans needing to win & get in last year went into Indianapolis & won & several other games, but I know what you're saying & I believe it swung back around.

 

[C-Gold]

There was a game maybe 3 years ago between Buffalo and Pitt. I think it was the 15-1 Pitt year and they were resting all their starters while Buffalo needed to win to get in. Want to guess what happened and burned all the betters?


I hear that one of the things going on is that if you are on some fringe playoff team, and you have been away from your family for 4-6 months, and you don't think your team is going to win the SB anyway, I mean, do you really think the Jets are going to win rip off a 4 game winning streak ( 5 with this game) and win the crown?

A lot of these guys know their teams are done and they just don't care. They are getting paid either way. That Lock of the millenium that people see has betters ripping up their ticket and calling a fix just 4 hours later.

 

[downtown2222]

There was a game maybe 3 years ago between Buffalo and Pitt. I think it was the 15-1 Pitt year and they were resting all their starters while Buffalo needed to win to get in. Want to guess what happened and burned all the betters?


I hear that one of the things going on is that if you are on some fringe playoff team, and you have been away from your family for 4-6 months, and you don't think your team is going to win the SB anyway, I mean, do you really think the Jets are going to win rip off a 4 game winning streak ( 5 with this game) and win the crown?

A lot of these guys know their teams are done and they just don't care. They are getting paid either way. That Lock of the millenium that people see has betters ripping up their ticket and calling a fix just 4 hours later.

I remember that pitt game your talking about, Everyone and there mom had buff ML atleast...

Good advice

 

[ca$hmoney]

I remember that pitt game your talking about, Everyone and there mom had buff ML atleast...

Good advice

I took Buffalo big and lost but didn't Cowher play his starters to ensure they don't lose momentum?

This is why I am gunshy about taking the Vikings. Coughlin is the type of guy to play his starters even though they have nothing to gain. He did it last year so why wouldn't he do it again?

 

[C-Gold]

Look at Buffalo in that "famous" game people got killed on
Chicago last night ( failed to cover, could have lost)
Washington on Sunday
Denver losing to Buffalo
How about the Giants/Patriots last year


I mean this is truly gambeling. Sure, San Diego should beat Denver who lost 7 running backs, but who the hell knows. What if LT just wants to heel up and get ready for next year when they get Merriman back and when they will have a chance.

If I see the public pounding any line hard, and if the line doesn't move, it should be a real strong indication on what Vegas thinks is going to happen. Do you want to be on the side of all the " they must win" guys or on the side with the house?

 

[downtown2222]

Look at Buffalo in that "famous" game people got killed on
Chicago last night ( failed to cover, could have lost)
Washington on Sunday
Denver losing to Buffalo
How about the Giants/Patriots last year


I mean this is truly gambeling. Sure, San Diego should beat Denver who lost 7 running backs, but who the hell knows. What if LT just wants to heel up and get ready for next year when they get Merriman back and when they will have a chance.

If I see the public pounding any line hard, and if the line doesn't move, it should be a real strong indication on what Vegas thinks is going to happen. Do you want to be on the side of all the " they must win" guys or on the side with the house?

Thats possibly the dumbest thing I ever heard. 1 game left at home and your star running back is thinking about next year because of merriman?

hno:


I do think the line is inflated but come on man, thats fucking dumb to think about LT.

 

[nd2000]

This is an absolutely brilliant post. The lines are almost always stacked against the team with everything on the line. You will get crazy good odds playing against that team. Plus you will also be backing a team that can play loose, carefree football with no pressures. That team can gamble and take any chance they want. Against an uptight team, this is the type of team you want to be backing, not the team with everything on the line that has to play close to the vest.

 

[C-Gold]

This is an absolutely brilliant post. The lines are almost always stacked against the team with everything on the line. You will get crazy good odds playing against that team. Plus you will also be backing a team that can play loose, carefree football with no pressures. That team can gamble and take any chance they want. Against an uptight team, this is the type of team you want to be backing, not the team with everything on the line that has to play close to the vest.

Exactly, I am glad somebody gets it. This isn't some stone cold lock or anything, but you should he able to go at LEAST 60%, but maybe more like 70% if you blindly took the team nobody wanted in week 16 and week 17. The public has been getting killed the last few weeks, and this is your reason.

Do you think the books are going to put together a "fair line" for what " should" happen late in the year here? Of course not, they are going to take the heavy action games, and SHADE THOSE LINES.


Now do you want to be betting WITH those shaded lines or AGAINST those shaded lines? Sure you might go out there and have some mediocre team that if they were any good would have already locked up the playoffs anyway, blow out the other team and cover.... but more often than not, players will see close losses ( like last night).

It was no suprise. I leaned the Bears of course, but when this late season over hype comes together, you'd actually do better fading Joe Public who is betting even more inflated point spreads than usual.

You are right also, some of those -7 point games that people tease will end up ripped to shreds because some team with no worries will go out there and have fun, try stuff they might not have tried, take some chances and BEAT the team that needs to make the playoffs.

Look man, if these 9-6 teams were any good at all, they'd already be in the playoffs. Whether or not these guys win, you are betting on average football teams.

 

[C-Gold]

Thats possibly the dumbest thing I ever heard. 1 game left at home and your star running back is thinking about next year because of merriman?

hno:


I do think the line is inflated but come on man, thats fucking dumb to think about LT.

Look man, this just isn't San Diego's year. They were one of the best teams in the NFL the past few seasons and have a loaded roster. This year, it isn't working out.

San Diego isn't winning the SB anyway, and there are probably more than a couple players on that roster that wouldn't mind seeing Norv get fired. If you think these Soutern California boys are jumping with excitement to try and win another game vs a better Indy/Bal and then fly over across the country to snowy Pittsburgh or Tennesse, I'd disagree.

There is a 75 percent chance SD gets beat at home if they do make the playoffs, and about a 90% chance they lose in Tennesse or Pittsburgh.

San Diego has played some horrible football in the 1st halfs of games, and if they find themselves losing, don't be shocked to not see them come back and burn those people that teased SD -9 to SD -2, or SD +1. Jay Cutler and the Broncos could beat good teams and lose to bad teams just like the Chargers.

 

[nd2000]

The Chargers have been frauds the past two years anyways. They had ridiculous turnover margins the past two seasons which made them look a lot better than they really were. Now that their turnover margin is down some, they have been exposed as the mediocre team that they are.

 

[C-Gold]

I liked their set up with Marty as the head coach, Cam Cameron as the OC and Wade Phillips as their DC.

How the hell does Ted keep getting jobs? Anybody that knows anything about football can line up his guys and put them in some basic cover 2 scheme. I mean, Ted couldn't even line up his guys right in Minnesota. He leaves a place and then the defense flurishes. It flurshed so much without him, that it got Mike Tomlin a job. Ron Rivera will make this defense better.

Cam Cameron is NOT who you want head coaching your team, but I have been impressed with his play calling. He's like another Norv Turner, and having norv as your oc is much better than HC. Same with Wade Phillips.

I'd actually like to see what Ron Rivera does. He left chi-town because Lovie Smith also came from that boring no pressure cover 2 that fungy started.


I think sd was very well coached before people started leaving. They had an A head coach, A offensive coordinator, and maybe a B+ dc.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Love when people take a game like last night and say "Packers have nothing to play for you have to like the Bears" It's comical...in the words of Herm Edwards "You play to win the game"...anyone who has played sports competitively has probably suffered through a losing season where you play game near the end of the season with no playoff chances. And guess what, sometimes you pull off an upset, why? Because once you step on the field/court/arena you play to win the game. And you sure as hell are going to step on the field and play to win the game against a divisional rival. Nice post.

 

[C-Gold]

Love when people take a game like last night and say "Packers have nothing to play for you have to like the Bears" It's comical...in the words of Herm Edwards "You play to win the game"...anyone who has played sports competitively has probably suffered through a losing season where you play game near the end of the season with no playoff chances. And guess what, sometimes you pull off an upset, why? Because once you step on the field/court/arena you play to win the game. And you sure as hell are going to step on the field and play to win the game against a divisional rival. Nice post.

It is comical. You know one thing I have been watching the past few weeks though. Detroit. People say things like, " they quit on their coach blah blah blah". If anything, I think these guys don't want to go down in history as the biggest losers ever.

Detroit sucks but everybody knows they suck. I believe they have a slightly winning record ATS, maybe 8-7 right now after the loss to New Orleans last week. I mean, they had Indy down to the wire a few weeks ago and almost won. I wanted to take them but just couldn't do it last week.

Remember Miami was 1-15 last year and beat the Ravens in the 2nd to last game of the season in overtime.

 

[sumday]

Whoa, week 17 feels so much better after a big fat NY Giants 5 unit win on SNF. I kept week 16 light, with big plays on the Colts 2nd half ( win) and NY Giants bout with Carolina ( win), with 1 unit losses to Pitt/Dallas and an MVP prop bet on Peyton Manning. I finished up 6 units with the pending MVP bet. I've had a strong month.


Anyways, I always see many rookie players at the end of the year with all these theories about what is going to happen week 17 based on playoff positioning. They say things like " THE JETS HAVE TO WIN TO GET IN, THEY WILL TRY EXTRA HARD", or, " THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS HAVE NOTHING TO PLAY FOR, THEY WILL REST THEIR STARTERS", or " IT IS EXTRA COLD AND THE BEARS NEED TO WIN TO GET IN, BEARS -3.5".


My point is that rookie cappers take this " need a win" thing too far, and often times teams fall on their face. Even if a team does win ( like the Bears last night), the books shade that line enough so that they can still take the players money ( like last night). Every year though, you see the same stuff. Some team that " controls their own destiny" and " needs a win" gets pounded in a shocking upset that makes Vegas rich. Or some good team resting their starters has the backups shit on the other team.

The past couple years I look to actually fade all the " win to get in" playoff motiviation teams and I believe that angle won last year, but lost the year before. Over a 10 year period though, I'd goess by fading that angle you'd probably win 7 years and lose 3. The books aren't stupid and they look for that extra padding at this time of year when all the rookies think they have it figured out.

My thing is that you should have already made your money this year. Don't chase, and don't pound some team because they " need" to win or the other team is resting their starters. Just something to watch out for, my 2 cents
:toast:

Aren't you a rookie capper?

 

[malibusurfer]

c-man is one of the best cappers on this board. makes total sense why you blow your load before playoffs. happens in other sports too. like starting off on slippery ice.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Look man, this just isn't San Diego's year. They were one of the best teams in the NFL the past few seasons and have a loaded roster. This year, it isn't working out.

San Diego isn't winning the SB anyway, and there are probably more than a couple players on that roster that wouldn't mind seeing Norv get fired. If you think these Soutern California boys are jumping with excitement to try and win another game vs a better Indy/Bal and then fly over across the country to snowy Pittsburgh or Tennesse, I'd disagree.

There is a 75 percent chance SD gets beat at home if they do make the playoffs, and about a 90% chance they lose in Tennesse or Pittsburgh.

San Diego has played some horrible football in the 1st halfs of games, and if they find themselves losing, don't be shocked to not see them come back and burn those people that teased SD -9 to SD -2, or SD +1. Jay Cutler and the Broncos could beat good teams and lose to bad teams just like the Chargers.

As bad as you make them out to be, if San Diego wins their division, they will be a formidable opponent for anyone they face in the playoffs...they have a few weapons and now another one in Sproles...and if Turner gets his head out of his ass, they could be dangerous...just my 2 cents:drink:

 

[Brubaker]

Yep, happens every year. The teams that need to win will lose ATS, if not SU!

I will be betting each of the following......

Buffalo +6-
Houston -2-
Jacksonville +12-
Oakland +13

 

[C-Gold]

As bad as you make them out to be, if San Diego wins their division, they will be a formidable opponent for anyone they face in the playoffs...they have a few weapons and now another one in Sproles...and if Turner gets his head out of his ass, they could be dangerous...just my 2 cents:drink:

So you think they will beat Peyton Manning or the Ravens stout defense? If they do pull off that upset, do you think they parlaythat win with another win on the east coast in Pittsburgh or Tennesse? I don't.