a few observations from some ATS work....

rivercitybirdie · Jul 19, 2015

looking at historical ats by team...... a couple of observations and i hope i have the data correct.

my data is past 12 years...........

notre dame's best ATS record in that period is 58%.... shocked they didn't have a better ATS record when kelly started getting them better. i'll have to double check this number.

oregon has had ONE YEAR that wasn't above 50%......... WOW, every year a winner except 1

looking at what teams have volatile ATS records (i realize small sample size and lots of times teams have massive, seismic changes).

i have done about 35 teams. mostly very big football schools. a few major players in lesser conferences... so far auburn is running 5th in most up/down ATS record.

any suggestions for teams that have been really up/down?.........

russ1945 · Jul 19, 2015

I think doing your research is great. One lesson I learned is not to go back as far as 12 years. What is pertinent is how long the current HC has been at this current school. Same goes for the OC's and DC's. I only trace ATS records back two years because no matter how long a HC has been there you have to consider returning starters etc. Studying ATS is the way to go though. You just need to narrow your focus and look for current results that will directly affect this upcoming season. For instance look at Duke which is 20-7 ATS the past two seasons and Mizzou which is 19-7 the past two seasons. Last season La Tech went 11-3 ATS and W. Michigan went 10-3 ATS. How many saw that stuff coming. You simply have to consider all of the teams and take into consideration coaching tenures (how long a program has been in tact), returning starters, strength of schedule, etc. Strength of schedules vary from season to season and can directly have an effect on ATS records. BOL

BigdaddyQH · Jul 21, 2015

I totally agree with Russ. Now there are some teams that just cannot defeat others no matter what the situation is. Wisconsin OWNS Minnesota going 10-0 in their last 10 meetings, but they are only 5-5 ATS in those meetings. Navy is 15-0 in their last 15 vs Army, but 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games. If you do not play ML's (and the vast majority of players in here are afraid to lay big ML's) then past performance is just another slice of the handicapping pie that you must consider.

russ1945 · Jul 21, 2015

I bet money line parlays up to 5 teamers every week. Big payoffs.

rivercitybirdie · Aug 2, 2015

i must know ncaaf betting better than i thought. i managed to pick from my brain most of the teams that have been way up/down ATS-wise (like florida state and auburn)....... some moderate prominence big state schools have been up and down quite a bit (like maryland)

now, the obvious question is does auburn's up/down like a toilet seat have any real logical basic? or just statistical mining? i'd say 35% logic/65% data mining. i do think there's something there (recruiting cycles etc.)

cloverleaf · Aug 2, 2015

The last time I was in Las Vegas, driving down the strip, looking at all the new hotels...I just thought to myself, Lord the betting public is at a disadvantage. Let me make that (FUCKEN HUGE) disadvantage.

CFB and NFL lines just smoke the public. Many new guys don't realize the 'Power' of the line in winning a bet. Hell, even veterans lose focus of what a spread does to winning a game.

Beware of the lines men............................