A Few NCAA Futures

[BigdaddyQH]

As relayed to me by someone at the Golden Nugget. I have not seen the lines, but heard some of the same on the radio:

Boise State -4 vs Oregon.
Alabama -4 vs Virginia Tech.
Illinois -2 1/2vs Missouri. A definate play if I can get -2 1/2.
Oklahoma State -3 vs Georgia. Thought that would be a bit higher.
Notre Dame -17 vs Nevada Reno.
USC -6 1/2 at Ohio State. Way too much IMO.
Floirda -27 vs Tennessee. Too little?
Georgia -4 vs LSU.
Florida -11 at LSU. I see a possible LSU play here.
Texas -3 vs Oklahoma.
USC -10 1/2 at Notre Dame. Again, too much.
Florida -16 vs Georgia. Interesting that it is 16 and not 17.
Alabama -6 vs LSU
Penn State -3 vs Ohio State
Oklahoma -10 1/2 vs Oklahoma State
Florida -20 1/2 vs Florida State

This is just a sampling. There is suppose to be 130 of these that will be put out by 7/1. I hope to get a complete list by then. If anyone is in Vegas, you can stop by the nuggett and get a sheet.
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[CoachCB]

Interesting lines.

You list Florida 4 times. Are you thinking the other side in most of those. I don't think 27 is too little against UT. UT is still an SEC team and getting beaten by 27 points doesn't happen too often....although it does seem to in this series (on UT's end). I also agree that the UF at LSU line is too high.....today. It's AT LSU and LSU should be much improved.

The only reason USC -10.5 at ND is "too much" (IMO) is simply that it will be the biggest game of the year for ND. On a neutral field I'd take USC -17!

I like LSU +6 against Bama.

 

[GoSooners]

Notice that LSU is the dog in all of these games. Some very good ATS value with LSU this year if these lines hold up.

 

[SoonerBS]

I love Georgia as a dog in the Oklahoma State game as I think they win SU . . . .

 

[russ1945]

Interesting lines.

You list Florida 4 times. Are you thinking the other side in most of those. I don't think 27 is too little against UT. UT is still an SEC team and getting beaten by 27 points doesn't happen too often....although it does seem to in this series (on UT's end). I also agree that the UF at LSU line is too high.....today. It's AT LSU and LSU should be much improved.

The only reason USC -10.5 at ND is "too much" (IMO) is simply that it will be the biggest game of the year for ND. On a neutral field I'd take USC -17!

I like LSU +6 against Bama.

Notre Dame has the week off before the USC game that bodes in their favor also.
Also Florida has the week off before the LSU game (but it is a circle game for LSU after LY's embarrassment). If LSU comes into that game undefeated you will never see a line that high.
OSU will get by Geo only because it is the first game of the year and a home game. Later on it would be a different story.
I think Texas favored over OU is spoon feeding Stoops as not being a big game coach to the public. I will be on OU.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Wow!! LSU -11 at home vs. the Gators? That is value if I ever saw it. GS you are right in saying UF will have problems covering this year. The only thing in their favor is Meyer's attitude when it comes to running up the score. Still, I don't think they cover over 50% of their games this year.

Illinois -2.5 sounds pretty solid when you look at a new QB in his 1st game of the year vs. a 4 year starting SR QB in Juice Williams. I really need to find out how different the Illini offense will look this year under Mike Schultz. If there aren't any major changes on offense for the Illini (which I don't believe there are), they will come out looking tight. Big time revenge game to boot.

The Arch-Rivalry has been a shootout the last two years with tons of TO's on both sides resulting in big swings. Machlin and Chase Daniel single handily torched the Illini D and special teams the last two years so I could see the Illini taking advantage of those guys being gone now.

Another key is Missouri's ability the last two years in stopping the ground game of the Illini. They successfully shut down the option and Juice Williams's big gains on the ground. When it came to the passing game it was a completely different story. I will have a detailed write-up for this one as we get closer to kick off.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Guys, these were the lines given to me. I am waiting to get morelines. It figures that the defending NC and #1 team by just about every account is going to get a lot of "Games of the Year" consideration, especially when they are going to post 130 of them.

I took Illinois -2 1/2. The one game line that really interested me was Florida -16 against Georgia instead of 17. It almost seems as if they are begging for action on Florida. I'm not touching that line, but I will watch Georgia very closely,thought I think they fail to cover at Okie State. Hope I'm wrong on that one.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Looking at this USC vs. Ohio St. game, is anyone really going to bet on Ohio St., given USC's record ATS in big non-conference games?

A lot of cappers have been riding the USC "big game" win streak for many years now, so is this the year to finally pull back or does it roll full steam ahead?

Last year was a perfect storm that OSU walked into but I still don't think it matters when USC is giving their full motivation.

 

[CoachCB]

Russ,

I agree that Okie State gets by UGA - simply because it's early. UGA will have a VERY GOOD line on both sides of the ball. However, they are breaking in a new QB. Last year, early in the year, UGA struggled on offense...and that was w/ #1 pick Stafford and 1st round pick Moreno on the backfield. UGA snuck by South Carolina 14-7 in week 2. They also struggle offensively - on the road - at Arizona State. UGA can cover, but I expect they struggle out of the gate as well.

Also, on that same note, UF's offense struggled the first 5 games last year as well. I'll be curious to see how they come out of the gate having to replace Harvin, Murphy and 2 OL's.

Also, regarding LSU, they have a shit-load of "circle" games this year after the ass-pounding they took last year! They lost 5 games last year and simply weren't that good of a football team. They will be much better this year.

 

[russ1945]

Russ,

I agree that Okie State gets by UGA - simply because it's early. UGA will have a VERY GOOD line on both sides of the ball. However, they are breaking in a new QB. Last year, early in the year, UGA struggled on offense...and that was w/ #1 pick Stafford and 1st round pick Moreno on the backfield. UGA snuck by South Carolina 14-7 in week 2. They also struggle offensively - on the road - at Arizona State. UGA can cover, but I expect they struggle out of the gate as well.

Also, on that same note, UF's offense struggled the first 5 games last year as well. I'll be curious to see how they come out of the gate having to replace Harvin, Murphy and 2 OL's.

Also, regarding LSU, they have a shit-load of "circle" games this year after the ass-pounding they took last year! They lost 5 games last year and simply weren't that good of a football team. They will be much better this year.

Coach: You are dead on about LSU. They may be coming back with a vengence and Miles is just the guy to do some payback. Talent wise they are set for the immediate future and are definitely back. I have probably over stressed the absence of Harvin, etc. in the past but having a new OC even though he is in house will take some time also. I think most everyone will bring their A game against Florida and a couple of injuries and missed starts can be like a crack in a mirror. They are still the team to beat, no question about that.

 

[SoonerBS]

Russ,

I agree that Okie State gets by UGA - simply because it's early. UGA will have a VERY GOOD line on both sides of the ball. However, they are breaking in a new QB. Last year, early in the year, UGA struggled on offense...and that was w/ #1 pick Stafford and 1st round pick Moreno on the backfield. UGA snuck by South Carolina 14-7 in week 2. They also struggle offensively - on the road - at Arizona State. UGA can cover, but I expect they struggle out of the gate as well.

Also, on that same note, UF's offense struggled the first 5 games last year as well. I'll be curious to see how they come out of the gate having to replace Harvin, Murphy and 2 OL's.

Also, regarding LSU, they have a shit-load of "circle" games this year after the ass-pounding they took last year! They lost 5 games last year and simply weren't that good of a football team. They will be much better this year.

Coach, last season UGA had some injury problems to deal with on both sides of the line early in the season. That played a big part them in struggling. Right now, these lines are healthy and a major strength for Georgia going into the season.

One of the question marks for Oklahoma State going into the season is the strength of their defensive line. I'm seeing too many prognosticators just dismissing it saying that their new DC coach will get them in shape, but it's always a guessing game as to whether JUCO tranfers are going to play out or not. I think Georgia has a really good chance of controlling the line of scrimmage against Oklahoma State's defense. Of course, I also think there is a chance Oklahoma State's offensive line could do the same to Georgia's defensive line.

Oklahoma State didn't like the physical play of Oregon last in the Bowl last year. If Georgia brings that kind of physical play in this game, it could be a great equalizer of Oklahoma State's offense.

 

[russ1945]

Coach

Gundy addressed the subject of toughness with a vengence following the Oregon game. Robinson and Bryant took some big hits in that game and the overall team performance dropped after that. With a new S & C facility the gauntlet has been thrown down by Gundy and I fully expect the 2009 players to be the fittest in Stillwater in a few years. Too many skilled players on OSU's side of the ball. At that point of the season OSU has all the advantages. I fully respect Georgia and if this game was to be played at another place and another time I might give Georgia the edge.
Special teams will play a factor in this game and at this point I give the edge in that dept to OSU. Robinson could QB for any team in the country.
He will be the difference in the end.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The Okie State-Georgia line is exactly what it should be. Remember lines are made to get an equal amount of action, that -3 will certainly do that. It is simply a question of an inexperienced offensive backfield for Georgia against an inexperienced defensive line for Okie State. I agree with Sooner that just because Bill Young is their new DC, that does not automatically mean that they improve, especially in game 1. Remember, the pressure is all on Okie State. They are the ones who are suppose to give OU and Texas a run for their money. Unfortunately for the Big 12, we all know how their teams do against the SEC. This team could not even win their bowl game against a Pac 10 team last year.

I am going to pass on this game, but I will be watching and pulling for the Dawgs. They are the forgotten team in the SEC. This is their chance to jump back into the picture.

 

[russ1945]

The Okie State-Georgia line is exactly what it should be. Remember lines are made to get an equal amount of action, that -3 will certainly do that. It is simply a question of an inexperienced offensive backfield for Georgia against an inexperienced defensive line for Okie State. I agree with Sooner that just because Bill Young is their new DC, that does not automatically mean that they improve, especially in game 1. Remember, the pressure is all on Okie State. They are the ones who are suppose to give OU and Texas a run for their money. Unfortunately for the Big 12, we all know how their teams do against the SEC. This team could not even win their bowl game against a Pac 10 team last year.

I am going to pass on this game, but I will be watching and pulling for the Dawgs. They are the forgotten team in the SEC. This is their chance to jump back into the picture.

This game is definitely one that could get over analyzed. There is the Big 12 vs. SEC angle. OL and DL advantages. New QB vs established QB angle. Bryant and Cox are really good at returning punts and kicks and Georgia may have a coaching advantage. On and on. And yes the line is just a line. I am usually very slow to pull the trigger on OSU but my numbers show a decided edge in that direction. TO's will probably be a fator. Youngs impact over the long haul may not be as much as an impact as it might be in this particular game. I see them pressuring Cox early and often. Very big home game for OSU. Robinson is the real deal and I think he is the difference in the game. Not the biggest game on my list for the weekend but one I will play.