Went to some of this throughout the past weekend. Wrote a few athings down I liked. Would like to hear what others think about them. The panel consisted of some very knowledgeable cappers, touts, math types and others in the gaming industry.
Here is a fewn things:
"become an expert on totals" : these speakers all felt totals were way easier to beat then sides. They said most people dont want to mess with totals but that is were thet find the most value.
"find teams that are totals trending ealry in the year and jump on it before everyone else realizes it": good example they talked about was how last year the Cleveland Browns had some high scoring games early in the year and you just knew right away they werent the same Browns teams of the past.
"pre season NFL football is easy to beat" : follow the sharp money and you will win. preseason NFL is way easier to beat then NFL regular season because of the better information that the sharps are able to uncover, where as in the regualr season NFL everyone has the same info.
"the public puts way too much information on last weeks results in the NFL": this has been my #1 rule of thumb in the NFL for years. I sometimes believe you could win if expect the opposite from a team than the way it performed a week earlier. Also created big value.
"Nowadays the whole bet dogs late, favorites early theory is crap": this is something I fall into the trap of. A few guys talked about the last few years this has been the complete opposite. The old days it was if you like a favorite a lot you bet them early in the week but now they say there were a ton of times last year in the NFL when you should bet the favorite as late as you can as the number will keep going down right until kickoff.
"only 2-3 team parlays are beatable": if you do the math they pay right (in fact 3 team parlays pay better than straight wagers, barely). Anything with 4 teams or higher is a huge edge to the books.
"one guy quoted the head of LVSC (the people who set the line) and he said with every sport the line is set to beat the sharps, PEORID except the NFL which has huge square action": thought this was interesting. I guess that means the sqaure money out numbers the sharp money enough that the books will set there lines knowing this.
"moneylines are overbet and aren't woth it with anything over a spread of 4 points": they say this is the case due to huge juice spread you pay. I guess you run into too many -300/+250 and they claim these are too hard to beat.
There was a ton more said but this is just a smattering of what I wrote down and heard. Thinking about going to this next year. There was a ton of information to gain. I highly recommend it. Everyone gave out a ton of plays for week 1 and season win totals.
Here is a fewn things:
"become an expert on totals" : these speakers all felt totals were way easier to beat then sides. They said most people dont want to mess with totals but that is were thet find the most value.
"find teams that are totals trending ealry in the year and jump on it before everyone else realizes it": good example they talked about was how last year the Cleveland Browns had some high scoring games early in the year and you just knew right away they werent the same Browns teams of the past.
"pre season NFL football is easy to beat" : follow the sharp money and you will win. preseason NFL is way easier to beat then NFL regular season because of the better information that the sharps are able to uncover, where as in the regualr season NFL everyone has the same info.
"the public puts way too much information on last weeks results in the NFL": this has been my #1 rule of thumb in the NFL for years. I sometimes believe you could win if expect the opposite from a team than the way it performed a week earlier. Also created big value.
"Nowadays the whole bet dogs late, favorites early theory is crap": this is something I fall into the trap of. A few guys talked about the last few years this has been the complete opposite. The old days it was if you like a favorite a lot you bet them early in the week but now they say there were a ton of times last year in the NFL when you should bet the favorite as late as you can as the number will keep going down right until kickoff.
"only 2-3 team parlays are beatable": if you do the math they pay right (in fact 3 team parlays pay better than straight wagers, barely). Anything with 4 teams or higher is a huge edge to the books.
"one guy quoted the head of LVSC (the people who set the line) and he said with every sport the line is set to beat the sharps, PEORID except the NFL which has huge square action": thought this was interesting. I guess that means the sqaure money out numbers the sharp money enough that the books will set there lines knowing this.
"moneylines are overbet and aren't woth it with anything over a spread of 4 points": they say this is the case due to huge juice spread you pay. I guess you run into too many -300/+250 and they claim these are too hard to beat.
There was a ton more said but this is just a smattering of what I wrote down and heard. Thinking about going to this next year. There was a ton of information to gain. I highly recommend it. Everyone gave out a ton of plays for week 1 and season win totals.
ffice
></o
