9-2 in the NFL, one play from Saturday's games has my attention...

Ramonskee · Dec 31, 2008

Arizona +1.5

I guess I'll adopt them as my "pity team" since I picked them last week when no one really liked them and I'm thinking of picking them on Saturday. The whole world seems to be on Atlanta and not many people are giving Arizona a chance. We saw this last week in the NBA when the Boston Celtics played Golden State and lost even though the Warriors had a lot of injuries. The public was very big on Boston. We see this a lot and we are seeing it this week. I saw that 85% of the public is currently on the Falcons. I just don't see Arizona losing this game. Maybe I'm an idiot and I'm being too logical and not just looking at what's infront of me (some of my friends have said that concerning the reasons I used to breakup with some of my ex's lol). But it's been working lately, so maybe it's not too bad?

Anyway, the matchups...

Atlanta's Rush Off; 152.7 YPG (2nd) vs. Arizona's Rush Def; 110.2 YPG, (16th) ... Advantage? Atlanta's Rush Off (+14, 16th - 2nd)
Atlanta's Pass Off; 208.5 (14th) vs. Arizona's Pass Def; 221.2 (22nd) ... Advantage? Atlanta's Pass Off (+8)
Atlanta's Rush Def; 127.5 (25th) vs. Arizona's Rush Off; 73.6 (32nd) ... Advantage? Atlanta's Rush Def (+7)
Atlanta's Pass Def; 220.4 (21st) vs. Arizona's Pass Off; 292.1 (2nd) ... Advantage? Arizona's Pass Off (+19)

Overall (using this method of matchups), Atlanta has a +10 advantage. However, Arizona has the biggest single advantage and it's where it matters most for the Cardinals; in the air. What surprises me a bit is that Arizona's defense is actually better than Atlanta's defense. The Falcons may give up less points (20.3 per game compared to Arizona's 26.6), but they give up more yards (347.9 per game compared to Arizona's 331.5).

Now a breakdown of Atlanta's road games and Arizona's home games...

Atlanta went 4-4 on the road with wins at Green Bay, Oakland, San Diego, and Minnesota. The losses were at Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, and New Orleans.
The combined score in Atlanta's 8 road games was 154-161 (an average score of 19.3-20.1, advantage Atlanta's opponents)
Arizona went 6-2 at home with wins against Mia, Buffalo, Dallas, San Francisco, St. Louis, and Seattle. Their two losses were against the Giants and Minnesota.
The combined score in Arizona's 8 home games was 242-178 (an average of 22.3-30.3, advantage Arizona).

Look at the teams Arizona beat at home; Miami (31-10), Buffalo (41-17), and Dallas (30-24). Look at their only two losses at home; Giants (37-29) and Minnesota (35-14) in a game that many can successfully argue the Cardinals didn't show up for/care about. Some may argue, "Arizona beat 3 NFC West teams at home and they all suck", which is true but look at the 3 other teams they beat, look at them keeping it within one TD (w/ a 2-ptr) against the Giants, and don't look at the Minnesota game because it didn't matter to them.

I will keep looking at the numbers and watching the line movement before I make a play. I might have my mind made up very soon though.

thomasbrady · Dec 31, 2008

Don't underestimate Nellie and small ball

Plus the Celtics were coming off a loss in the biggest NBA game so far this year. Even KG couldn't get excited to play the Warriors.

WormyPix · Jan 1, 2009

I agree Ramon. 90% of the time the betting public is wrong. I think ARI will feel disrespected being a div champ, home underdog! If the "D" takes it personally, and actually steps it up, this could be an ARI blowout. Throw in the pressures of being a rookie HC & QB in their first playoff gm on the road (in fact, i think only a couple of "D" guys were ever in playoffs) and there may be a lot of mistakes.

budlight · Jan 1, 2009

think cards will win at home

budlight · Jan 1, 2009

thomasbrady said:
Don't underestimate Nellie and small ball Plus the Celtics were coming off a loss in the biggest NBA game so far this year. Even KG couldn't get excited to play the Warriors.

???

wrong thread :think2: