PENNYWISE it is all about the lines any average joe would look at todays games and say Hamels -110 is the pick but thats not how you win in sports betting long term. Took me 8 years of losing to figure out a system of reading the lines that is the only way to win in sports. I gave out free picks for a full year to show my system work but im not gonna promote I'm here to build a solid group here and talk day by day about the lines day by day.
STL over 8 1/2 looks pretty fishy to me. That game in my opinion should be at least 9 1\2.
I have been betting in sports for over 14 years now and I know you are right it's always that game that looks pretty, there is no way that team is going to lose or there is no way they won't go over, etc... Whoever I had loss more money by not playing the fishy looking lines than by playing it. Yes, you will loss every now and then but if for example you play Texas game tonight 10 times under the same circumstances you will win at least 6 of then, so trust me you will make more money by playing what you like base on your findings than reading lines and fading the fishy lines.
I have been betting in sports for over 14 years now and I know you are right it's always that game that looks pretty, there is no way that team is going to lose or there is no way they won't go over, etc... Whoever I had loss more money by not playing the fishy looking lines than by playing it. Yes, you will loss every now and then but if for example you play Texas game tonight 10 times under the same circumstances you will win at least 6 of then, so trust me you will make more money by playing what you like base on your findings than reading lines and fading the fishy lines.
Can't agree with this.
People go broke taking back big tags on games that "can't lose". The price can absolutely make a play a non play and vice versa.
Yes, PW is very good and a smart capper.
So am I.
Ask bookies if they don't mind if people lay large juice with favorites.
The line is important. And it absolutely makes a difference in a play. You can cite your Manhattan guy, I can cite other very good handicappers that will disagree with him. I don't need to be careful because you cite a couple guys with a different opinion.
So am I.
Ask bookies if they don't mind if people lay large juice with favorites.
The line is important. And it absolutely makes a difference in a play. You can cite your Manhattan guy, I can cite other very good handicappers that will disagree with him. I don't need to be careful because you cite a couple guys with a different opinion.
Atlanta took 2 from St Louis over the weekend getting +200. Minnesota swept Cleveland getting 190+, 180+, and 160+. Everyone on this board was all over Cleveland in that series, even your boy PW. Ask those that laid the heavy juice how that turned out for them.
I have no clue why you and I would argue, but here's the simple truth. The LINE IS SET TO ATTRACT EVEN MONEY ON BOTH SIDES, no if's, and's or but's. Therefore, the best team in a game is not always favored, and in fact, it's a 50/50 proposition as to the correct team being favored, just as Vegas wants it. Go back and look at lines against the outcomes and tell me who's winning. Then we'll continue the discussion. GL as always my friend.
~T~
That is an entirely different discussion. We are talking about lines, value, and at what price are you wiling to take for a play.
Best team means......the better team overall or the better bet for that game?
Go back and look at lines and outcomes and tell you who's winning? Its a mixed bag of favorites and dogs of all prices. Not sure what you mean here.
I'll give you an example.
If I have a situation where a dog wins at a 50% clip, then I will take that dog at any price. If I have a situation that is profitable if the dog is a big enough price, for example dogs of +130 or higher, then the price absolutely determines if its a play or pass. I'm passing at +115 and I'm playing at anything over +130. Same thing applies to point spread sports. There are some situations where the spread absolutely dictates whether or not I play or pass.
Your comment that point spreads mean nothing in football and hoops is a complete head scratcher.
"always forget about the line, winners don't need the points, TD's, hoops, whatever."
Best team means......the better team overall or the better bet for that game?
Go back and look at lines and outcomes and tell you who's winning? Its a mixed bag of favorites and dogs of all prices. Not sure what you mean here.
I'll give you an example.
If I have a situation where a dog wins at a 50% clip, then I will take that dog at any price. If I have a situation that is profitable if the dog is a big enough price, for example dogs of +130 or higher, then the price absolutely determines if its a play or pass. I'm passing at +115 and I'm playing at anything over +130. Same thing applies to point spread sports. There are some situations where the spread absolutely dictates whether or not I play or pass.
Your comment that point spreads mean nothing in football and hoops is a complete head scratcher.
"always forget about the line, winners don't need the points, TD's, hoops, whatever."
