8/3 Overnight MLB Discussion

[TheHungerForMore]

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="Column_Date_Headers_Odds"><td colspan="7">MLB Baseball - Mon 8/3

</td> </tr><tr class="Column_Headers_Odds"> <td colspan="3">Game</td><td>Run Line</td><td>Money Line</td><td>Total Runs</td><td>More</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>901</td><td>Washington Nationals
G. Mock</td><td>
</td><td>+132</td><td>OVER 9 +107</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>902</td><td>Pittsburgh Pirates
C. Morton</td><td>
</td><td>-140</td><td>UNDER 9 -117</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>903</td><td>Chicago Cubs
R. Wells</td><td>
</td><td>-138</td><td>OVER 8.5 -104</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>904</td><td>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang</td><td>
</td><td>+130</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -106</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>905</td><td>Arizona D-Backs
D. Haren</td><td>
</td><td>-175</td><td>OVER 7.5 +102</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>04:10 PM</td><td>906</td><td>New York Mets
N. Figueroa</td><td>
</td><td>+167</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -112</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>907</td><td>San Francisco Giants
M. Cain</td><td>
</td><td>-138</td><td>OVER 8 -104</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>05:05 PM</td><td>908</td><td>Houston Astros
M. Hampton</td><td>
</td><td>+130</td><td>UNDER 8 -106</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>909</td><td>Atlanta Braves
K. Kawakami</td><td>
</td><td>-118</td><td>OVER 7.5 +106</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>910</td><td>San Diego Padres
M. Latos</td><td>
</td><td>+110</td><td>UNDER 7.5 -116</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>911</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers
M. Parra</td><td>
</td><td>+185</td><td>OVER 8.5 +102</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>07:10 PM</td><td>912</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Kershaw</td><td>
</td><td>-201</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -112</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>913</td><td>Kansas City Royals
Z. Greinke</td><td>
</td><td>+122</td><td>OVER 8 +102</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>09:05 AM</td><td>914</td><td>Tampa Bay Rays
S. Kazmir</td><td>
</td><td>-130</td><td>UNDER 8 -112</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>915</td><td>Baltimore Orioles
C. Tillman</td><td>
</td><td>+260</td><td>OVER 8.5 -103</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD2"> <td>04:05 PM</td><td>916</td><td>Detroit Tigers
J. Verlander</td><td>
</td><td>-280</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -107</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>Mon 8/3</td><td>917</td><td>Texas Rangers
D. Nippert</td><td>
</td><td>+117</td><td>OVER 8.5 -106</td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr class="AD1"> <td>07:05 PM</td><td>918</td><td>Oakland Athletics
B. Anderson</td><td>
</td><td>-125</td><td>UNDER 8.5 -104</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Off the back i grabbed Rays -130 Large and Giants Large (May sell this one back as i think it'll get ran up).

 

[buffettgambler]

I would not be suprised in the least if the Rays close 10% higher than their current no-vig price.

Already got in on the Reds. Line was bet down on the open, but could fall some more.

Was hoping Cain would come with some value, but he looks well priced. The market in the past has left excess value on the table in his starts. I don't think they elect to bid this one up, and would not be suprised if they bring it down a few cents.

The Brewers today were my biggest bet in nearly two weeks. The Braves tommorrow might surpass that bet. Not if the market realizes how bad this lineup is. Matos looks good on the mound and has some impressive stuff. But 66.7% of his inningers were against the Nats and Reds. He has eaten up right handers but has run into some difficulties against left handed bats. I am expecting the Braves to throw a lineup with Church, Mclouth, Anderson, Johnson, Jones, Laroche and Mcann- 7 left handed hitters that can hit. Expecting him to get past such a lineup the second time around with running into problems may be wishful thinking. Having said that, this is one line which may stay very undervalued up to first pitch.

If I were to make a guess which teams closing no-vig price will go up 5% or more off the current price, my guess would be the Orioles, Brewers, and Rays, and possibly the Braves.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Ha. I was thinking Reds looked like a nice price. Braves looked decent on quick look, but one that i would have look into.

 

[LockStock2SB]

Anyone else like the over in tampa tomorrow?

 

[bossA3]

i love the giants

 

[TheHungerForMore]

i love the giants

Most likely won't be on them. I just thought that line had a chance to shoot up. Rays, Reds look good on the overnight. Buffett has sold me on the Braves his read seems on point and this is a good ball park for Kawakami. Those probably are only 3 plays i'll be on. Still gotta look at Brewers. If O's get shot up i may place a very small bet on them.

 

[buffettgambler]

Astros and Brewers no-vig price just got bid up ~4% since post initiation.

 

[billhill999]

Ha. I was thinking Reds looked like a nice price.

There is value in Harang tommorow.
Good luck.

 

[magillagorilla]

absolutely the best thread on the rx by far. I hope this starts a tradition for this thread, great for researching lines and line moves. I just wish we could get a injury and line up thread going.

Great idea for a thread.

my take on the games discussed so far is that the reds are just bad, and you have a good pitcher like wells and the cubs in a playoff race on espn, if ramirez is playing I will be all over the cubs.even if he is not how can you you not bet against the reds and the cubs off a pathetic bullpen loss like today.i have always liked harang but he just gave up 7 to the padres. the padres!!!!


The Padres are awful but that is a long flight and a big time change for the Braves. Coming off a late game like tonight, tough one to call. kawakami coming off a bad game but he can be lights out when he wants to.

only games I like are the tigers on the run line or on a parlay, I saw tillman against kansas city and he will be crushed tommorow night playing a team that needs to win.


I also like and I have to go with the rays even against greinke, the rays are another team that needs a win for the playoffs and kazmir looked good against the yanks.


i think the line will end up in the -320's or -330's on the tigers and -150 or -160 on the rays

 

[jmp]

rays vs kc.

this is going to be a very good pitching game between both players.

kazmir has been on a streak. grienke is beast against rays line up except for bartlett. last game between these 2, rays won by under 8.

i got rays to win and under 8

 

[1968]

I would not be suprised in the least if the Rays close 10% higher than their current no-vig price.

Already got in on the Reds. Line was bet down on the open, but could fall some more.

Was hoping Cain would come with some value, but he looks well priced. The market in the past has left excess value on the table in his starts. I don't think they elect to bid this one up, and would not be suprised if they bring it down a few cents.

The Brewers today were my biggest bet in nearly two weeks. The Braves tommorrow might surpass that bet. Not if the market realizes how bad this lineup is. Matos looks good on the mound and has some impressive stuff. But 66.7% of his inningers were against the Nats and Reds. He has eaten up right handers but has run into some difficulties against left handed bats. I am expecting the Braves to throw a lineup with Church, Mclouth, Anderson, Johnson, Jones, Laroche and Mcann- 7 left handed hitters that can hit. Expecting him to get past such a lineup the second time around with running into problems may be wishful thinking. Having said that, this is one line which may stay very undervalued up to first pitch.

If I were to make a guess which teams closing no-vig price will go up 5% or more off the current price, my guess would be the Orioles, Brewers, and Rays, and possibly the Braves.

hey buffet, thanks for sharing your input/info.

what is it you saw that trigger your brewers play today and possibly the braves tomorrow?

 

[1968]

Astros and Brewers no-vig price just got bid up ~4% since post initiation.

hey where do you watch the no-vig prices?

 

[TheBud]

Love this thread! I am always up late/early trying to get the jump...

I think at 8am I'll take Royals w/ Chese & Rays under 1st 5... Every early game Im on this year is a yawner, this one with two good hurlers should do the same. Those BP's can kiss my ass

 

[KingofNicotine]

Anyone else think Kansas has a good chance at beating Tampa?

 

[buffettgambler]

hey where do you watch the no-vig prices?

You would have to calculate the no-vig line yourself. To find the no-vig opener, you would have to use the opening line at the Greek, of weighted average of the Greek and BM. In order to find the current market no-vig line you would implement a weighted average no-vig line from books you deem that are true reflections of implied market perception.

For example the Orioles/Tigers game opened at the Greek with the following price Orioles +220/Tigers -260.
Orioles no-vig implied probablity would be:
100/(100+220)≈31.25%
Tigers no-vig implied probability would be:
260/(100+260)≈72.22%
The implied oddsmakers no-vig line set probability would be
31.25+72.22= 103.47
Orioles no vig implied win probability: 31.25/103.47=30.2%
Tigers no vig implied win probablity is: 72.22/103.47=69.8%
No vig line= .698/.302=2.31
Tigers -231/Orioles +231

 

[buffettgambler]

hey buffet, thanks for sharing your input/info.

what is it you saw that trigger your brewers play today and possibly the braves tomorrow?

Todays Brewers value was created by an accumulation of a few overvalued facets on the Padres working in the Brewers favor combined with a few from undervalued facets from the Brewers adding value on the line. I liked the spot Villenueva was in. The market was extremely bearish on him, but he has proven of the last few years he has a lot of upward mobility off recent form. In his first start of the season he was put in a tough situation, as he was a last minute choice, which is a tough adjustment of a someone pitching out of the pen all year. He feeds off getting people to go out of the zone and chase his pitches. The Padres youth and lack of patience was a perfect matchup for his syle. The Brewers lineup has been struggling lately, but Corriea is an easy pick up for left handed bats, something in which the Brewers threw a lot out there today.

The market has been increasing the Padres worth materially while they have actually should be downgrading them. Their uptick has had a lot to do with starting four starting pitchers pitching well, something which often caused a "double counting effect" in a teams valuation. There lineup has a few hitters getting hot, but simply lack the talent to keep it sustained.
I like Kawakami's chances to cool down this lineup. His recent downward trend can be attributed more to the opponents faced rather than himself (a good hidden value creator). 6 of his last 10 starters were against the Cubs twice, Marlins, Yankees, Orioles and Red Sox. He has faced 10 sub par lineups this year (something the Padres qualify under) 9 of those starts he allowed 3 or less runs. His upward trend in fly balls allowed can be a sign of fatigue for a typical groundball pithcer. Petco and the lack of Padres power should offset that.

Homefield advantage is being overquantified here. My guess is the Braves would be selling at least 40 cents more at home, but I think homefield advantage should be far less in this one. The Padres have always lacked a high disparity of H/A splits. This years disparity was mostly derived during the first two months. The Padres are 10-22 in their last 32 home games. Fundamentally this park favors the Braves, as it is better suited for left handed bats, and Matos notorious groundball style goes to waste.

 

[fugazi]

Im hitting 3 games big tommorrow:
Rays
Braves
Cubs

 

[TheHungerForMore]

You would have to calculate the no-vig line yourself. To find the no-vig opener, you would have to use the opening line at the Greek, of weighted average of the Greek and BM. In order to find the current market no-vig line you would implement a weighted average no-vig line from books you deem that are true reflections of implied market perception.

For example the Orioles/Tigers game opened at the Greek with the following price Orioles +220/Tigers -260.
Orioles no-vig implied probablity would be:
100/(100+220)≈31.25%
Tigers no-vig implied probability would be:
260/(100+260)≈72.22%
The implied oddsmakers no-vig line set probability would be
31.25+72.22= 103.47
Orioles no vig implied win probability: 31.25/103.47=30.2%
Tigers no vig implied win probablity is: 72.22/103.47=69.8%
No vig line= .698/.302=2.31
Tigers -231/Orioles +231

Royal +128/Rays -128 Correct?

 

[TheHungerForMore]

BM opener was -140