@)Best of luck GG. On a couple of those plays as well.
Large
Royals +120
Oddsmakers are really bearsish on the Royals and will inflate their opponents price no matter the product they are putting on the field. The Mariners are starting to regress and should regress more here on out. They are battling key injuries to their lineup, and the lineup they are likely going to put forth tonight will be their worst all season. Snell has looked better on the mound his last two starts, but could implode at any time. He is a much better pitcher to back as an underdog.
Meche has looked horrible on the mound in recent outings, but has had to face some tough lineups in hitters parks in recent outings. Facing his former team in a big park should allow him to improve off recent form.
Upper Medium
Twins +102
Pavano has improved on the mound since joining the Twins. Good revenge spot for Pavano as well, as he was owned by the Rangers in both his starts in Texas this season. Not sure is this domination is terribly concerning, as fundamentally, the Rangers do not match up well with his style. The Rangers bats are also showing signs of cooling down.
Feldman has been getting less effective as the season has progressed. I would not be suprised to see a sharp regression here on out. Like his counterpart, he has struggled against his opponents lineup last time he faced them. However, in my opinion, this regression is more sustainable, as his style of pitching does not bode well against the Twins lineup.
Both teams perform much better at home. Homefield advatnage is magnified in this game. Wrong team favored.
Diamondbacks -122
The market has been fickle with Garland. They were providing a lot of value on him before he went on his run. The market then started to inflate his price tag at the latter stages of his run, valuing it more sustainable than it really was. Now that his run has ended, the market is once again leaving value on the table for his backers.
Looks like the league has figured out Norris. His last start against the Diamondbacks, he was only able to get three outs before being pulled for allowing 6 runs. The DBacks lineup is one of the streakiest ones in the leauge. They scored more than ten runs in two straight games and tend to build off of momentum.
Large
Royals +120
Oddsmakers are really bearsish on the Royals and will inflate their opponents price no matter the product they are putting on the field. The Mariners are starting to regress and should regress more here on out. They are battling key injuries to their lineup, and the lineup they are likely going to put forth tonight will be their worst all season. Snell has looked better on the mound his last two starts, but could implode at any time. He is a much better pitcher to back as an underdog.
Meche has looked horrible on the mound in recent outings, but has had to face some tough lineups in hitters parks in recent outings. Facing his former team in a big park should allow him to improve off recent form.
Upper Medium
Twins +102
Pavano has improved on the mound since joining the Twins. Good revenge spot for Pavano as well, as he was owned by the Rangers in both his starts in Texas this season. Not sure is this domination is terribly concerning, as fundamentally, the Rangers do not match up well with his style. The Rangers bats are also showing signs of cooling down.
Feldman has been getting less effective as the season has progressed. I would not be suprised to see a sharp regression here on out. Like his counterpart, he has struggled against his opponents lineup last time he faced them. However, in my opinion, this regression is more sustainable, as his style of pitching does not bode well against the Twins lineup.
Both teams perform much better at home. Homefield advatnage is magnified in this game. Wrong team favored.
Diamondbacks -122
The market has been fickle with Garland. They were providing a lot of value on him before he went on his run. The market then started to inflate his price tag at the latter stages of his run, valuing it more sustainable than it really was. Now that his run has ended, the market is once again leaving value on the table for his backers.
Looks like the league has figured out Norris. His last start against the Diamondbacks, he was only able to get three outs before being pulled for allowing 6 runs. The DBacks lineup is one of the streakiest ones in the leauge. They scored more than ten runs in two straight games and tend to build off of momentum.
BG,
Feldman is obviously a road warrior going 9-1 with a 3 ERA however
I saw it the same way as you looked into it. I've also stayed away from the Atlanta play as Lee has dominated the NL however Lowe has been good vs Philadelphia and against a number of hitters. The market is agreeing with me on this assessment.
Tampa's trade of Kazmir leads us all to believe that they've cashed in on the season. The players in return will be here for the future but this year's success should come to an end. This may not factor into today's game as much.
Price has had his ups n downs all year looking great one series and less promising the next. In limited AB's Price is .091 vs Detroit while Robertson has held the Rays in check as well. Bartlett is 0 for 22 lifetime against him. Limited success from Crawford and Navarro. The market is agreeing that the price may be efficient here not moving it more than 2-3 %.
I may move my position here as Robertson's second pitch (slider) has found location and fastball is in low 90's. With Price's road worries (0-4 8.07 ERA) and Robertson's rehab stints 1-1 with 1.89 ERA in TRiple A, the play may be on Detroit.
Feldman is obviously a road warrior going 9-1 with a 3 ERA however
I saw it the same way as you looked into it. I've also stayed away from the Atlanta play as Lee has dominated the NL however Lowe has been good vs Philadelphia and against a number of hitters. The market is agreeing with me on this assessment.
Tampa's trade of Kazmir leads us all to believe that they've cashed in on the season. The players in return will be here for the future but this year's success should come to an end. This may not factor into today's game as much.
Price has had his ups n downs all year looking great one series and less promising the next. In limited AB's Price is .091 vs Detroit while Robertson has held the Rays in check as well. Bartlett is 0 for 22 lifetime against him. Limited success from Crawford and Navarro. The market is agreeing that the price may be efficient here not moving it more than 2-3 %.
I may move my position here as Robertson's second pitch (slider) has found location and fastball is in low 90's. With Price's road worries (0-4 8.07 ERA) and Robertson's rehab stints 1-1 with 1.89 ERA in TRiple A, the play may be on Detroit.
Good analysis GG. I am not sure if the Kazmir trade is evidence enough the Rays have given up on the season. I just don't think that the Rays wanted to support his ace salary over the next few years, as they think his velocity he lost may be permanent. His current value over replacement was not enough to justify not unloading futre capital. I think the Rays still have the talent to make a late run. I was a bit suprised to see their line so high today, but I still think they warrant a small play.
