8-28

[GordonGekko]

Today's Action:

Medium/Large Cleveland -112

I believe oddsmakers are undervaluing Carmona's value while the Indians continue to stay hot. This Cleveland team underperformed all year with the veterans they traded away and finally the young talent has started to show its true colors. This young teams is playing for next years team and continue to perform. Both bullpens have been pitching of late, however Berken has not been good all year long. He owns a high ERA and besides an open day start that was good, he hasn't produced. Remarkably his WHIP is almost identical at home as on the road. He owns a 1.674/1.675.

Yesterday's dogs produced a very profitable day if you were able to play the large numbers for a profit. I'm seeing the market to continue to place 200 price tags on pitchers that do not warrant that price.

I'm in the market buying another house and haven't been able to spend as much time as I'd like in this forum. I have time today and would like all feedback necessary for producing some winners if there out there.

Looking at Tampa Bay and Chicago White Sox as well as others.

GEKKO

 

[Wow]

I really like Cleve to win today too... will tag along.. thanks... BOL

 

[GordonGekko]

Giving a look at Tampa Bay and with that have came up with a no play or small play on Detroit:

Tampa Bay hasn't been good on the road all year long and Garza's road record is 4-7 and last year was 5-10 to follow up that as well. Garza has been much better at home with an era in low 3's while the road has been low 4's or almost an earned run on top.

 

[GordonGekko]

Also looking at St.Louis at home. With Morgan out, it's a big blow to the lineup.

 

[buffettgambler]

Nice analysis GG. Best of luck with your home shopping.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o> </o>
Large
Rays -120
This will be my largest play in about 3 weeks. The Rays are starting to become consistently undervalued by the marketplace, and I am not sure why. I have been bearish on Porcello ever since the market started pricing in his solid first half as sustainable. The Tigers have been babying him since his first start of the season in fear of a second half capitulation. It looks like that babying couldn’t even prevent the second half downturn. He allowed a run per inning in July, and after showing potential signs of righting the ship in recent starts, he once again looked overmatched on the mound in his last outing. Porcello has especially been overmatched by hitters from the left side. He will more than likely have to face five tonight. Backed by a sub par bullpen should allow the Rays scoring opportunities throughout.

<o> </o>
Phillies +112
The market appears to be really bearish on <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>, as they sent an inflated Braves price tag up 8% more than the original ask. He has done a decent job limiting baserunners and should get slightly better from here on out. His worse than BABIP and GB% leads me to believe some bad luck has played a factor in his productivity thus far.
<o> </o>
Add Hanson’s overpriced tendencies to <st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>’s bearishness, and you got some nice value on the Phillies. Don’t be surprised if you see a high velocity of regression from Hanson here on out. He has shown increased vulnerability to left handed hitters. The Phillies have the most potent lineup in baseball from the left side. His FIP is nearly one point higher than his ERA, and his line drive and fly ball per groundball has been getting higher. Hanson has been pitching over his head. This may be a good spot for a reality check.
<o> </o>
Medium
Padres +139
Market aggress with my overnight position. Volstad doesn’t look right, and I am not sure if the odds makers fully appreciated this notion. His HR per 9 innings is materially higher than anything he has been accustomed to in the past. He has been consistently bad since the all star break, and expecting a turnaround now may be wishful thinking as he is now approaching an innings count he arm is not used to dealing with.
<o> </o>
Correia has been quietly been putting forth a decent season. The Marlins bats have been dormant of late, and they appear to be bothered by some key injuries to their lineup. The Padres have the better bullpen, which should allow them to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout. The oddsmakers have shown respect to the Padres when at home, but have completely disregarded them on the road. Not sure if that is warranted, and they have shown a recent ability to hold their own on the road despite playing some tough teams.
<o> </o>
Indians -106
It looks like some value is starting to leave the table for Carmona backers as each solid start increases the markets willingness to back him. However, the market still is underestimating his true worth, and the same can be said for the Indians team as a whole. Carmona has posted a sub 3 ERA since the break, and the Indians have one of the best records in baseball over the last 35 games. The Orioles on the other hand have been on the opposite side of the spectrum, winning just 12 of their last 40 games. Berken is overmatched at the big league level. His surface numbers are horrible, but his secondary and more predictive numbers are even worse. Nearly 25% of contacts are line drives. His FIP is well over 6. He is using four pitches, all of which have been getting hit hard. The market will probably close this one out higher than the current ask on the Indians.

 

[GordonGekko]

Nice analysis GG. Best of luck with your home shopping.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Large
Rays -120
This will be my largest play in about 3 weeks. The Rays are starting to become consistently undervalued by the marketplace, and I am not sure why. I have been bearish on Porcello ever since the market started pricing in his solid first half as sustainable. The Tigers have been babying him since his first start of the season in fear of a second half capitulation. It looks like that babying couldn’t even prevent the second half downturn. He allowed a run per inning in July, and after showing potential signs of righting the ship in recent starts, he once again looked overmatched on the mound in his last outing. Porcello has especially been overmatched by hitters from the left side. He will more than likely have to face five tonight. Backed by a sub par bullpen should allow the Rays scoring opportunities throughout.

<o></o>
Phillies +112
The market appears to be really bearish on <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>, as they sent an inflated Braves price tag up 8% more than the original ask. He has done a decent job limiting baserunners and should get slightly better from here on out. His worse than BABIP and GB% leads me to believe some bad luck has played a factor in his productivity thus far.
<o></o>
Add Hanson’s overpriced tendencies to <st1:City><st1lace>Martinez</st1lace></st1:City>’s bearishness, and you got some nice value on the Phillies. Don’t be surprised if you see a high velocity of regression from Hanson here on out. He has shown increased vulnerability to left handed hitters. The Phillies have the most potent lineup in baseball from the left side. His FIP is nearly one point higher than his ERA, and his line drive and fly ball per groundball has been getting higher. Hanson has been pitching over his head. This may be a good spot for a reality check.
<o></o>
Medium
Padres +139
Market aggress with my overnight position. Volstad doesn’t look right, and I am not sure if the odds makers fully appreciated this notion. His HR per 9 innings is materially higher than anything he has been accustomed to in the past. He has been consistently bad since the all star break, and expecting a turnaround now may be wishful thinking as he is now approaching an innings count he arm is not used to dealing with.
<o></o>
Correia has been quietly been putting forth a decent season. The Marlins bats have been dormant of late, and they appear to be bothered by some key injuries to their lineup. The Padres have the better bullpen, which should allow them to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout. The oddsmakers have shown respect to the Padres when at home, but have completely disregarded them on the road. Not sure if that is warranted, and they have shown a recent ability to hold their own on the road despite playing some tough teams.
<o></o>
Indians -106
It looks like some value is starting to leave the table for Carmona backers as each solid start increases the markets willingness to back him. However, the market still is underestimating his true worth, and the same can be said for the Indians team as a whole. Carmona has posted a sub 3 ERA since the break, and the Indians have one of the best records in baseball over the last 35 games. The Orioles on the other hand have been on the opposite side of the spectrum, winning just 12 of their last 40 games. Berken is overmatched at the big league level. His surface numbers are horrible, but his secondary and more predictive numbers are even worse. Nearly 25% of contacts are line drives. His FIP is well over 6. He is using four pitches, all of which have been getting hit hard. The market will probably close this one out higher than the current ask on the Indians.

All good points as usual. What do you have for St. Louis at home? Are they being bullish on Smoltz? The success that the Cardinals have had may lead to a large play for me. I know without Nyjer the lineup depreciates but Lannan has had some success on the road.

 

[buffettgambler]

All good points as usual. What do you have for St. Louis at home? Are they being bullish on Smoltz? The success that the Cardinals have had may lead to a large play for me. I know without Nyjer the lineup depreciates but Lannan has had some success on the road.

I am actually spotting some small value on the Nats. I don't think there will be any unforseen value on a hot Cardinals team playing at home against an out of favor road team that happens to have the worst record in baseball. I don't howerver feel the market is being bullish on Smoltz. They have been bearish on him all season, including his first start with the Cards. Their bearish sentiment on him may be decreasing with each solid starts, and will prbabably be offset with their bullishness on the Cards team as a whole.

 

[Rip007]

As well GG. BG question for you sir ???? From one of your old posts "linesmakers lines are based on their power rating system and adjusted for public perception. The alteration that they are faced with based on searching for a equilibrium price allows you to find values" Do they use any quantification tool ?? (think that would be impossible) are they adding or subtracting cents off their power rating for what they "percieve the public perception is ??? Thanks Rip

 

[Rip007]

"Searching for a equilibrium price" ?????

 

[buffettgambler]

As well GG. BG question for you sir ???? From one of your old posts "linesmakers lines are based on their power rating system and adjusted for public perception. The alteration that they are faced with based on searching for a equilibrium price allows you to find values" Do they use any quantification tool ?? (think that would be impossible) are they adding or subtracting cents off their power rating for what they "percieve the public perception is ??? Thanks Rip

I am sure all oddsmakers have a form of a quant model that helps them derive and set the lines that they feel will get close to the fair odds or closing number. Whether the add and subtract cents off for market perception or incorporate market perception within their model can become convoluted, but to think that they exclude market expectations entirely and merely set the line as they deem is their true intrinsic worth is probably not accurate.

 

[Rip007]

Thanks !

 

[Akillies]

Volstad doesn’t look right, "
noticed it too

Add Hanson’s overpriced tendencies to Martinez’s bearishness,"
seems like hanson has been overpriced from the start and has only been increasing. dont think it possible for him to live up to expectations. particularly like philles explanation. really like correia


bearish on Porcello ever since the market started pricing in his solid first half as sustainable."

agree on porcello, but not particularly high on rays. crawford?

 

[GordonGekko]

Today's Card:

Large Plays

Rays -125
Indians -110
Phillies +110

Medium

Pirates +132
Colorado +112

GEKKO

 

[HacheMan]

GL Gekko

 

[GordonGekko]

GL Gekko

Thanks and as well to yourself.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Hanson is going to get fked up, thats all im going to say.

 

[buffettgambler]

Material downgrade on the Padres. Bought back my entire position for a small arb. No current position on either the Padres or Marlins.