The masses on this forum would agree with your former comment.
I'll agree with your latter comment. The Yankees are one of the four large plays I have going today. Once the Mariners bullpen regresses to their "true" productivity, there is not much left with this team. French is not built to go past 5 or 6 innings. This may be the game in which the Mariners bullpen meets their match.
Buffett,
As previously posted I went Large on Cubs, NY Yanks and Boston.
Medium value on Baltimore, stayed away with Florida with recent line movement (i will listen to the market on days) and looking at a couple of others. Does the market really value this Gonzalez kid in Oakland?
Who else do you like Large?
The market has been all over the map when valuing Gonzalez. One minute they will leave nice value on the table, the next minute they will bid up an inlfated price. His high variance in performances has made the market look smart, but I doubt such variance will last.
My 4 large plays today are:
Cubs
White Sox
A's
Rays
I have a few small/medium plays that I am moving in and out of, but none that big.
Best of luck.
All else equal, given the nominal value of perceived edge, I prefer laying the higher payout to the shorter payout due to its reduction in bankroll variance.
I think oddsmakers put forth a cautious opening price with Kazmir and the market has proceeded with caution as well. Rightfully so? Probably. Kazmirs velocity is down (albiet increasing since coming off the DL), and when his velocity drops, he effectiveness is shot. Expecting him to return to his past couple of years performance is wishful thinking. But I think the oddsmakers are getting a little carried away with their bearishness on him.
A couple of months ago before Tallet regressed numerically, I said he was showing signs of a potential huge dropoff in productivity. Since then, he fell off a cliff, and is back in the rotation only because of an injury. Tallet was overworked the first quarter of the season, I his arm still appears to be shot. He was consistently proven to be overmatched by the Rays this season, and this start should be no different. The Rays have a better underbelly of their bullpen to weather any potential storm from these high variance starting pitchers, and the superior lineup to exploit their deficiencies.
In my opinion, -168 is a bargain.
