Rays @ LAA:
Line has moved up about ~5% in the Rays favor. I entered a large position on the Rays on the overnight at -114. The Angels are being priced for perfection right now, and no matter how much they appear to have that level sustained, they lack the talent to accomplish such. Difficult challenge to have <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1
lace>Bell</st1
lace></st1:City> make his first start against a lineup as talented as the Rays. His derivative numbers this year showed a sign he does not possess overpowering stuff, as these numbers dropped significantly when he made the bump from double A to triple A. The Angels underbelly in their bullpen is a weakness and overmatched against the Rays lineup as well.
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Mets @ DBacks
Entered a medium/large position on the Mets (to win large) on the overnight at +162. The market has been bearish on the Mets during their prolong slump, and have been consistently moving lines against them. Oddsmakers have recently responded by deflating their ask off the open. The fact that the market has actually moved the overnight in favor of the Mets today is a strong statement that the Mets are carrying some nice value. Yes, the Dbacks are playing better, but the market has not caught up. How much better is questionable, as 18 of their last 21 games have been against teams with losing records.
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Dodgers @ Giants:
Dodgers have been undervalued all series. Today is no different. Entered a medium position to win medium/large here. The Giants lineup is streaky, and they are showing signs of entering a downward trend. Weaver is not ideal, but pitching well and will be on a short leash. Backed by the best bullpen in the NL, the sooner he leaves the better. Caveat: The Dodgers have a propensity to rest starters in day games following night games. Their backups have large disparity of value over replacement. Be prepared to lower your intrinsic value on this team on lineup card information.
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Nationals @ Braves.
Oddmakers really have not acknowledged the Nationals upward trend, allowing value to remain on the table during their winning streak. That said, not much value in this one. At best, they warrant risking a very small play on the no-vig line.
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Rangers @ Indians
I am agreeing with oddsmakers in this one and not the market. I prefer the other way around, but like oddsmakers, made the Indians a short favorite in this one. Medium play here. Carmona is showing signs of getting things back on track and is pitching well out of the stretch. The league may be starting to figure Hunter out. Once that happens, expect a significant downward spiral in productivity as he lacks overpowering stuff. Both teams appear to be regressing to their mean, the Rangers going down to approach theirs, and the Indians going up. The market is not fully recognizing this.
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Astros @ Marlins
Entered a medium position on the Marlins on the overnight at a much better price than currently being offered. I am baffled to why oddsmakers have not picked up the disconnect on their pricing of Nolasco vs. the markets. Marlins up 17% off the open, which is not the highest in recent Nolasco starts.
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Tigers @ Red Sox
Didn’t touch this one on the overnight, but the market is opening just enough value to risk a small play on the Tigers here. If anyone is noticing, the market has made a very consistent statement on opening prices in Galaraga’s starts during the last 2 months. Easy to capitalize on this.
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Phillies @ Cubs.
Intriguing game. Not surprised about the large disconnect in valuation between the market and oddsamakers in valuing <st1:City><st1
lace>Martinez</st1
lace></st1:City>. If <st1:City><st1
lace>Martinez</st1
lace></st1:City> pitches well, expect another inflated price in his next start. Get ready to make a move off the open. No play here.
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Padres @ Brewers
Expecting some nice value on the Brewers in this one, but didn’t get it. Small play at best. The Brewers have started to dismantle their team with the moves they made today.
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Royals @ Twins
This line completely caught me off guard. When handicapping this game and deriving a 65.87% of winning for the Twins, I was expecting them to be a large play. But both the oddmakers and market are both in line with my expectations. No play.
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Reds @ Cardinals
Market just opened up an opportunity to risk medium to win large on the Reds.
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Pirates @ <st1
lace>Rockies</st1
lace>
Market just opened up an opportunity to risk a small play on the Pirates.
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White Sox @ Mariners
Third straight game in which the Sox are carrying nice value. Large play on them once again. The last three August and Septembers, Hernandez struggled. His last three starts he did not look right. Has walked 10 batters in 13 innings, and strikeout rate, strike rate and many other derivates are bearish indicators. We may have seen the best of him this year.
