7th *Biggest Bet of Year* play (UCLA +23)

[glennlovecolleen3]

3-3 (-1.5u)

*** UCLA +23 (over usc) ***

I'm not sure if I'm going to play the bowl games, so I might as well go out on the plus side or negative side.

UCLA haven't beaten anyone good this season, but hey, they don't have to win this game, just stay within 23 pts. Backdoor cover? Good enough for me.

The only two major opponents ucla have played are on the road against cal and ariz st. Lost both games understandably, but I like the fact they scored 28 against Cal. The most pts Cal has allowed this season, and cal has a great defense. Also ucla scored 42 against Ariz st, the second most pts scored against them all season. Only other team to score more on ariz st this season was USC, but it was at USC. UCLA have scored over 28 pts in every game this season except for 2. So they can put up points. The ucla defensive side will be the question in this game and if usc plays up to their potential on offense. Big question mark and makes this pick risky, but that's gambling. I think ucla's defense rises up at home, how much more motivated do you need to be playing the no 1 team in the nation? ucla held four teams to 17 or under pts this season. They shut out stanford, the only team to do that this season.
The only time ucla allowed over 40 pts was against two ranked teams this season on the road. I'd imagine it would have been a lot different if it was played in UCLA.

UCLA has never lost by more than 17 pts this entire season. The biggest lost they had was AT Cal by only 17.

USC has some great talents and stats, but a lot of it was expanded by wupping on some bad teams this season. If you look at the road games usc played....

At virg tech, usc only wins by 11
At byu, usc wins by 32
At Stanford, usc wins by only 3 !!!!!!
At wash st, usc wins by 30
At Oregon st, usc wins by only 8

Only road games usc was impressive in was virg tech and wash st by 30. Byu ain't that good so the 32 pt win wasn't that impressive. Ucla is better than Oreg st and Stanford, and usc barely beat them. That's a telling sign that usc doesn't always play up to their talent all the time and can be surprised by even an average team on the road.

I actually feel auburn is the best team in the country, usc only played two ranked teams, virg tech and cali. They were fortunate to have the cali game at home, and they barely beat cali 23 to 17. UCLA hung 28 pts against Cali, and it was at Cali!!

Those are the reasons why I think UCLA will put up a tough fight. They will be able to move the ball on USC, hopefully they can punch it in, field goals wouldn't be that bad with a big spread. I'm hoping ucla makes some big plays on defense with home crowd momentum which I expect them to do. Mad rush Leinart and contain Bush and let the other players make the plays, and things shouldn't get that bad.

If USC gets a three TD lead, they will play conservative or rest starters for the championship game in the bowl. USC doesn't need to run up the score, they will hold on to no 1 spot as long as they just win this game.

Goodluck!

 

[LEYKIS101]

Like the play Glenn, was on UCLA + before you posted. USC got out to a huge year last year and only won by 25 with a much better USC team and a much worse UCLA team, I think this stays a 2-3 td win for the Trojans.

Lets hope this is better than Nevada last week, I liked them a lot too.

 

[Highdaddy]

USC it is

 

[LEYKIS101]

GL Highdaddy, If you like SC you can get them at -21 for cheap.

 

[sphincter]

if you believe that ucla can hang,then i`d think you`d like the over 59.....i mean,ucla`s defense isn`t exactly the rock of gibralter...everybody runs on ucla....and that should open up the passing game...

i fully expect usc to hang around a 40 spot here...at least....hopefully ucla can reciprocate....

g.l.,glenn...

 

[3peet]

USC has some great talents and stats, but a lot of it was expanded by wupping on some bad teams this season. If you look at the road games usc played....

At virg tech, usc only wins by 11
At byu, usc wins by 32
At Stanford, usc wins by only 3 !!!!!!
At wash st, usc wins by 30
At Oregon st, usc wins by only 8

Let's take a closer look at those road wins and margin of victory.

-V-Tech. by 11,
First game of the season as a road opener. V-Tech right now is the #10th team in the nation going toe to toe with #9 Miami .

-Byu by 32,
No need to explain

-Stanford by 3.
This was the one road game that concerns me. Against a mobile and highly underated QB and decent ground game. USC seemed to be sleep walking until the 2nd half.

-Wassu by 30
No need to explain

-Oregon St. by 8
If anyone actually watched the game it was a fog bowl in which no body could do anything for 3 quarters! As a matter of fact in the 4th quarter when the scored the final 2 TD's to take the win I think the camera man even missed the play. on regular conditions one can assume USC rolls handedly.

Now as for today's "road" game? both schools are only 10 miles apart. The Rose Bowl over the past few years have been USC's 2nd home. The fact that USC has "some talents and stats" is somewhat of a misnomer. This is the most talented and explosive team in the nation. couple that with the precision like adjustments Norm Chow makes on offense to exploit the opponents defense, it's like pouring salt into a wound. Which is exactly what USC has done all season long.


USC - the points without question. USC's pours it on for the final game of the season on their rivals turf.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

if you believe that ucla can hang,then i`d think you`d like the over 59.....i mean,ucla`s defense isn`t exactly the rock of gibralter...everybody runs on ucla....and that should open up the passing game...

i fully expect usc to hang around a 40 spot here...at least....hopefully ucla can reciprocate....

g.l.,glenn...

The total looked tempting, but I told myself never to take totals after I've done bad in the past with them. Plus who knows what kind of usc team shows up. Maybe ucla defense will rise to the occasion. Lot's' of question marks for this game. If usc goes into this game with the attitude, "Just win." Then usc could be in for a tough one. If usc is coming in really wanting to smash ucla, then bruins will have to be at the top of their game. I'm thinking usc doesn't see ucla as a big threat, just like how the books don't see it that way either, so usc just wants to win this game, and none of their key players getting hurt. Usc will be satisfied with a 20 or 3 pt win in this one. ucla wants the win and if they play to win, I think they can keep this one close. If they play conservatively like nevada played last week against boise st, usc should take over this game.

I'm guessing ucla has nothing to lose and will go all out and not play conservatively, I'm hoping. And will take risks, and blitz leinart on 3rd and long. And stack the line on other plays to stop Bush. Key is to contain Bush and not have a let down on special teams and it should stay within 23. I can say one thing, UCLA's defense is a lot better than Nevadas. And even if teams score on ucla, the bruins all season long did not get blown out once. No one beat them by more than 17 pts this season.

ps: LEYKIS101, hope we cash!!

 

[LEYKIS101]

Probably raining or a wet field as its raining 30 miles south of the Rose Bowl now.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

3peet,

nice write up, but that stanford and oreg st games really stand out, showing usc's vulnerability to look avg, but I give them credit for winning the game.

Should be a good game to watch!!

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Probably raining or a wet field as its raining 30 miles south of the Rose Bowl now.

Hopefully the ball will slip out of their hands, and hopefully out of USC's hands.

 

[AC]

if USC brings their A game they will cover. UCLA is capable of a late score or two to open the backdoor. not enough value in either side in my opinion.

if you saw the oregon st. game, I think you would agree that the game didn't really reflect what USC is capable of. it was played in a thick fog.

good luck.

AC

 

[LEYKIS101]

if USC brings their A game they will cover. UCLA is capable of a late score or two to open the backdoor. not enough value in either side in my opinion.

if you saw the oregon st. game, I think you would agree that the game didn't really reflect what USC is capable of. it was played in a thick fog.

good luck.

AC

True, SC won that game but didn't cover. BTW, the rain has stopped here, I'm hoping it stays that way as I also have over 59 in the game.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Glenn,

After seeing the first half Im buying out of my position and taking USC-11 in the 2nd half. If UCLA wouldn't have hung around via that punt return td I think I'd stick with the UCLA side and hope for the backdoor, now Im pretty sure USC works em' over in the 2nd half.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Leykis,

It would be perfect if the score ended up something like, 42-20.

then could win the -11 second half play, the full play on ucla with the spread, and the over total to go 3-0. And I can go 1-0. The chances of that are slim with all this going perfectly, but who knows, it's possible.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Winner

Game went like imagined. Ucla was able to move the ball and put up enough pts, and Usc played like they did against oreg st and stanford, just barely enough to win outright.

*Biggest bet of year* plays:
4-3 (+3.5u)

 

[LEYKIS101]

Nice call Glenn, glad you cashed. :drink:

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Nice call Glenn, glad you cashed. :drink:

Thanks I was hoping to do better than 4-3 in the season, but I should be happy I ended up on the plus side(which was my goal). This handicapping thing ain't easy. Goodluck during the bowl games.