I had an ok week last week coming out a little ahead of the game. This week I'm striving for perfection and plan on wiping the smile completley off my bookie's face.
This is the week of the state rivalries among most of college football. But you won't find any of my hard earned money laid here on such intra-state wallet grabbers.
I had an OU lineman tell me once that when he played state rival OSU for the first time, he had never been hit so hard in his life by an opposing lineman. And he said he kepted it up the entire 60 minutes like he was possessed or something. I always keep these words in mind when I'm trying to find what looks like a sure thing in games played for individual state titles. Most of the time these games can be more fierce than national rivalries.
So all I can say is watch out. Nothing is as it seems with points spreads, and these emotion filled games almost never go by the book. That's why for the most part I stay away from these unit destroyers.
Here's 7 games that I hope will pay off this week.
1.OU at Baylor..I'm taking OU -34. Last week I took Nebraska and the points, mainly because of the bad weather and that all indications were that Peterson wasn't going to play much and OU would have a conservative gameplan. And that Nebraska was going to have a conservative game plan themselves to keep OU from scoring. The Cornhuskers usually pass the ball around 30+ times a game. They only attempted 13 passes against OU and ran the rest of the night. They're general game plan was to not win, but keep from losing too big. Mission accomplised.
This week is a different story. ESPN dedicated about 3 hours of airtime Wednesday ripping Bob Stoops about his comment he made saying that ESPN has a contract with Auburn and the SEC. Gab all they want. ESPN does have a TV contract with the SEC. And it doesn't help that Lee Corso influences half of America by saying he'll start a revolution if Auburn doesn't make it to the title game. Who could blame Stoops for being mad about this fiasco.
Stoops knows what he has to do. He needs to get his team ready to play well this Sat. against Baylor, again on national TV. I believe OU will be more than ready this weekend. The vibe I'm getting around here is that they are in a take no prisoners mode. Stoops has tweeked his defense the last couple of weeks, bringing a talented player with 4.4 speed out of redshirt and into the defensive backfield. And getting the very talented Antonio Perkins back off of the injury list. I'll be surprised if OU isn't sharp for this game.
If your looking for homefield advantage in Waco, there will be. There will be about 25,000 fans at the game. And 20,000 of them will be OU fans who made their little trek down I-35. I've only missed the spread one time this year with OU. And my feeling here is they'll do the ESPN dance to the tune of about about 45-3.
2.Wake Forest at Miami...Take Wake Forest and 18.5. That was a great win last week over Virginia for a proud Miami team that was in jeapordy of losing 3 in a row. And now that they've beaten the Cavs, they get to play Virginia Tech next week for what will probably be the ACC title. But first they have this little sandwich game with Wake. I don't know what it is about this Wake Forest team, but they are one of the scrappiest teams around. They pull out about every trick in the book to beat you from their clever coach Jim Grobe. This team is in every game they play. They never win big, but they haven't lost by more than a touchdown all year. Don't be surprised if Miami has a little bit of a letdown here and this turns into a close game. My score Miami 31-24
3.Wisconsin at Iowa...Take Wisconsin +3...That was a fine win on the road from this talented Iowa team who in my opinion has the best coach in the Big 10 Kirk Ferentz. On the other side, Wisconsin forgot to show up at Michigan St. last week. Wisconsin has a great defense, but I haven't seen them stink up the state of Michigan this bad all year. The thing you have to ask yourself here is can they bounce back off a loss like that? I'm saying yes, because of the expierence of this team (17 returning starters). And good defenses very seldom play 2 bad games in a row. Despite winning last week against a very weak Minn. defense, Iowa is still hurting at TB. They're top 4 tailbacks are out with injuries and they are down to their 5th. A soph walk-on. Eventually this is going to catch up with them. A good defense can show you how you miss those 4 tailbacks. Iowa has a killer home record 23-4 ATS the last 27. But I'm going to try to buck the trend here. The Badgers bounce back 20-16.
4.Wyoming at New Mexico...Take New Mexico -7.5. Here's a concept. A team in the Mountain West who can play defense. The Lobos are about the most boring team to watch on the face of the earth. But they bring their lunch pails to work every week and usually get the job done in their non-flashy blue collar way. These are two 6-4 teams. But NM is a more impressive 6-4 team than Wyoming. They've played alot of road games this year. And they haven't had more than 28 points scored on them all year. The most being by Utah. And we already know what kind of damage they can do. The Lobos are coming off of 2 road games and are finishing up at home to drive their record to 7-4 and get into a good bowl game. It's New Mexico in a ho-hummer 24-13
5.Iowa State at Kansas St...Take Iowa State +11. This could really be a sucker bet. But I'm gambling here that Iowa St. is for real off of their last 3 wins in a row. Granted they were cupcakes. But isn't the whole Big 12 North? The Cyclones have also had 2 weeks off to prepare for this game. I bet against the Cats and took Colorado last week because of the Kansas St. injuries to their defensive unit. But they're back at home sweet home now. For those who are betting this game because Iowa St. has everything to play for and Kansas State's hope are all washed up. Well...don't play it for that reason. Bill Snyder is a great coach who has a knack for getting his team ready to play when you think they're going to lay down. The Cats are a proud team who don't like losing, no matter what their record is. And I'm betting they are going to get a win here but not cover the spread. But be warned, if the odds get below 10 I woudn't play the game on Iowa St.. My score Kansas State 34-24
6.South Florida at Cincinnati...Take Cincinnati -12..There was some high hopes at the beginning of the season for this Cincinnati team to compete with Louisville for the Conference USA title. They have 17 starters returning. But they also have a first year coach Mark Dantonio, who was the defensive corrdinator at Ohio St. the last 3 years, including their national championship team. The team started slow, going 2-4, but have caught fire the last 3 weeks and appear to be a confident team who has a good chance for a bowl if they can defeat South Florida. SF does have one good win on the road against UAB. But they're not playing defense like Cincinnati is right now. And they'll be coming into cold Ohio against a well-rested Cincy team who's looking to do a little bowling.
. A bad spot for SF. A good spot for the Bearcats. Cincy gets it done 31-14
7.Boston College at Temple..Take Boston College -14...That was a great win on the road for Boston College last week over West Va. With the Big East on the line I expect more of the same this week. Boston College is the real deal. They're only 6 points away from being undefeated. They have some good quality wins this year on the road over Notre Dame and West Va. They are a hard nosed team with some NFL caliber players on the defensive line. These guys can play with anybody in the country. And they've absolutely dominated Temple in the last 4 years. With so much on the line I expect another sound whipping this week. My best bet of the week. Boston College rolls 38-10
Good luck everybody. Let's smoke the bookies.:smoker2:
This is the week of the state rivalries among most of college football. But you won't find any of my hard earned money laid here on such intra-state wallet grabbers.
I had an OU lineman tell me once that when he played state rival OSU for the first time, he had never been hit so hard in his life by an opposing lineman. And he said he kepted it up the entire 60 minutes like he was possessed or something. I always keep these words in mind when I'm trying to find what looks like a sure thing in games played for individual state titles. Most of the time these games can be more fierce than national rivalries.
So all I can say is watch out. Nothing is as it seems with points spreads, and these emotion filled games almost never go by the book. That's why for the most part I stay away from these unit destroyers.
Here's 7 games that I hope will pay off this week.
1.OU at Baylor..I'm taking OU -34. Last week I took Nebraska and the points, mainly because of the bad weather and that all indications were that Peterson wasn't going to play much and OU would have a conservative gameplan. And that Nebraska was going to have a conservative game plan themselves to keep OU from scoring. The Cornhuskers usually pass the ball around 30+ times a game. They only attempted 13 passes against OU and ran the rest of the night. They're general game plan was to not win, but keep from losing too big. Mission accomplised.
This week is a different story. ESPN dedicated about 3 hours of airtime Wednesday ripping Bob Stoops about his comment he made saying that ESPN has a contract with Auburn and the SEC. Gab all they want. ESPN does have a TV contract with the SEC. And it doesn't help that Lee Corso influences half of America by saying he'll start a revolution if Auburn doesn't make it to the title game. Who could blame Stoops for being mad about this fiasco.
Stoops knows what he has to do. He needs to get his team ready to play well this Sat. against Baylor, again on national TV. I believe OU will be more than ready this weekend. The vibe I'm getting around here is that they are in a take no prisoners mode. Stoops has tweeked his defense the last couple of weeks, bringing a talented player with 4.4 speed out of redshirt and into the defensive backfield. And getting the very talented Antonio Perkins back off of the injury list. I'll be surprised if OU isn't sharp for this game.
If your looking for homefield advantage in Waco, there will be. There will be about 25,000 fans at the game. And 20,000 of them will be OU fans who made their little trek down I-35. I've only missed the spread one time this year with OU. And my feeling here is they'll do the ESPN dance to the tune of about about 45-3.
2.Wake Forest at Miami...Take Wake Forest and 18.5. That was a great win last week over Virginia for a proud Miami team that was in jeapordy of losing 3 in a row. And now that they've beaten the Cavs, they get to play Virginia Tech next week for what will probably be the ACC title. But first they have this little sandwich game with Wake. I don't know what it is about this Wake Forest team, but they are one of the scrappiest teams around. They pull out about every trick in the book to beat you from their clever coach Jim Grobe. This team is in every game they play. They never win big, but they haven't lost by more than a touchdown all year. Don't be surprised if Miami has a little bit of a letdown here and this turns into a close game. My score Miami 31-24
3.Wisconsin at Iowa...Take Wisconsin +3...That was a fine win on the road from this talented Iowa team who in my opinion has the best coach in the Big 10 Kirk Ferentz. On the other side, Wisconsin forgot to show up at Michigan St. last week. Wisconsin has a great defense, but I haven't seen them stink up the state of Michigan this bad all year. The thing you have to ask yourself here is can they bounce back off a loss like that? I'm saying yes, because of the expierence of this team (17 returning starters). And good defenses very seldom play 2 bad games in a row. Despite winning last week against a very weak Minn. defense, Iowa is still hurting at TB. They're top 4 tailbacks are out with injuries and they are down to their 5th. A soph walk-on. Eventually this is going to catch up with them. A good defense can show you how you miss those 4 tailbacks. Iowa has a killer home record 23-4 ATS the last 27. But I'm going to try to buck the trend here. The Badgers bounce back 20-16.
4.Wyoming at New Mexico...Take New Mexico -7.5. Here's a concept. A team in the Mountain West who can play defense. The Lobos are about the most boring team to watch on the face of the earth. But they bring their lunch pails to work every week and usually get the job done in their non-flashy blue collar way. These are two 6-4 teams. But NM is a more impressive 6-4 team than Wyoming. They've played alot of road games this year. And they haven't had more than 28 points scored on them all year. The most being by Utah. And we already know what kind of damage they can do. The Lobos are coming off of 2 road games and are finishing up at home to drive their record to 7-4 and get into a good bowl game. It's New Mexico in a ho-hummer 24-13
5.Iowa State at Kansas St...Take Iowa State +11. This could really be a sucker bet. But I'm gambling here that Iowa St. is for real off of their last 3 wins in a row. Granted they were cupcakes. But isn't the whole Big 12 North? The Cyclones have also had 2 weeks off to prepare for this game. I bet against the Cats and took Colorado last week because of the Kansas St. injuries to their defensive unit. But they're back at home sweet home now. For those who are betting this game because Iowa St. has everything to play for and Kansas State's hope are all washed up. Well...don't play it for that reason. Bill Snyder is a great coach who has a knack for getting his team ready to play when you think they're going to lay down. The Cats are a proud team who don't like losing, no matter what their record is. And I'm betting they are going to get a win here but not cover the spread. But be warned, if the odds get below 10 I woudn't play the game on Iowa St.. My score Kansas State 34-24
6.South Florida at Cincinnati...Take Cincinnati -12..There was some high hopes at the beginning of the season for this Cincinnati team to compete with Louisville for the Conference USA title. They have 17 starters returning. But they also have a first year coach Mark Dantonio, who was the defensive corrdinator at Ohio St. the last 3 years, including their national championship team. The team started slow, going 2-4, but have caught fire the last 3 weeks and appear to be a confident team who has a good chance for a bowl if they can defeat South Florida. SF does have one good win on the road against UAB. But they're not playing defense like Cincinnati is right now. And they'll be coming into cold Ohio against a well-rested Cincy team who's looking to do a little bowling.
. A bad spot for SF. A good spot for the Bearcats. Cincy gets it done 31-147.Boston College at Temple..Take Boston College -14...That was a great win on the road for Boston College last week over West Va. With the Big East on the line I expect more of the same this week. Boston College is the real deal. They're only 6 points away from being undefeated. They have some good quality wins this year on the road over Notre Dame and West Va. They are a hard nosed team with some NFL caliber players on the defensive line. These guys can play with anybody in the country. And they've absolutely dominated Temple in the last 4 years. With so much on the line I expect another sound whipping this week. My best bet of the week. Boston College rolls 38-10
Good luck everybody. Let's smoke the bookies.:smoker2:
