2 Undervalued “Public Darlings”
New York Yankees (-154)
It isn’t often that you see the Yankees trade below their fundamental worth, but it is not terribly surprising that they are in today’s game. The Yankees have been carrying the worst ROI in baseball for 2 months now, have their best hitter slumping and a question mark for today’s game, are sending an aging pitcher that may have put forth his worst start in his career in his last outing, and are up against one of the most overachieving (and overvalued) teams in baseball that have beat them 12 of their last 17 meetings. So do they warrant laying this many basis points with this many shortfalls and against the team with the second best record in baseball? In my opinion, yes. In general, injuries to marquee players like ARod are usually over-quantified. This should hold especially true in ARod’s circumstance as he is currently in a 0 for 19 slump, and has not hit a home run in 14 games. Secondly, the line adjustment for his status is over quantified two fold(no longer due to the line movement on the Yankees), as he is more than likely to play this game, a game that is tailor made for him to break out of his slump, as he has thoroughly dominated Colon throughout his career. After starting the season promising, Colon has regressed to the liability he was on the mound last year. He has now put forth two straight months with six plus ERA’s and an increased walk and home run rate. Although he has put forth two straight quality starts from a definition standpoint, they were far from quality in reality. Colon was only able to go six innings against two sub par lineups in the Orioles and Pirates, yet still managed to allow double digit base runners in both. He was hit hard in both games. Going up against a team that dominated him in past years when he was on top of his game should put that quality start streak to an end. Along with ARod, Damon, Jeter and Matsui have dominated him. This should force him into the stretch more than ideally suitable, a situation in which he has struggled pitching in this year, as opponents are hitting .330 against him in this spot. Colon’s lack of productivity on the road is alarming. Despite being backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen who is top heavy, as they lack the depth most elite bullpens have. This is not ideal with Colon on the mound, who is not a likely candidate to work deep into this game. The Yankees are starting to play better at home, and have scored at least five in four of their last five games.
As much as this is a play against Colon, this is a play on Pettitte, a pitcher coming off arguably his worst start of his career, and a pitcher that has proven to be one of the better bounce back starters in the league in seasons past. He has an ideal match up to bounce back yet again, as he has the strengths to counter the Angels assets. Pitching only 42 pitches in his last start, he should come into today’s game fresh and should be able to work deep into this game and avoid a suspect bullpen right now. His finesse style takes advantage of the youth and aggressive tendencies the Angels lineup provides. Having the best pick-off move in baseball should counter the aggressive tendencies the Angels have on the base paths. The Angels bats have clearly cooled down in recent series, and just have not been able to play with the same intensity in their road games, which has shown in their lack of productivity. Although Guerrero and Anderson have shown some success against Pettitte in the past, they have yet to see him in over four years, and may take a go-around to adjust to his style. Pettitte is rare veteran pitcher that still possesses a distinct disparity between home and away numbers, and prior to his last outing had gone at least seven strong in his last four home starts. Expect him to bounce back strong and make it hard for a cooling Angels lineup to provide the adequate run support Colon’s current pitching form demands.
Toronto Blue Jays (Holliday) (-144)
Holliday has consistently been one of the over-bet pitchers in baseball. Despite being able to produce profits while carrying over- priced lines past seasons, his lines have finally caught up to him this season. Rarely is he a pitcher deemed undervalued, but like the Yankees, it is not surprising he is in today’s game. “Public” bettors are no longer blindly backing Holliday, as they have been more price sensitive with him during his underachieving and injury plagued season. Coming off yet another disappointing start as a road favorite and going up against a constantly heavily backed team like the Indians, and Holliday is finally trading at a price that warrants a play in my opinion. Despite his downfalls this season, Holliday has been pitching well at home, and his style of pitching fundamentally matches up with the Indians style of hitting. It is no surprise that he has had past success against them, including a dominating performance late last season. Holliday is one of the harder right handed pitchers for left handed hitters to go deep against, which should curtail the lineup with the most pop from the left side. Past domination against Blake, Hafner and Siezemore should put more pressure on slumping role players in the likes of Garko, Perralta and Nixon. Being able to work deep into games and backed by one of the more underrated pens in baseball should make it hard for Indians lineup to produce up to their standards. Winning 9 of their last 13, and allowing their unsustainable record to be sustained that much longer was done with smoke and mirrors, as beating the Nationals, and the A’s and Drays at home leaves a lot to be desired. Finally tested against Detroit, they lost their fourth road series in their last five, and their second straight against a quality team.
This is a series in which home field is worth more than the conventional 20, as not only is Holliday and the Indians shown a distinct home preference, but the same could always be said for the Blue Jays bats. Although Lee has shown signs of getting things back on track in his last three outings, those starts may be deceiving. Those three starts were against an inferior A’s lineup, a struggling Devil Rays lineup, and a Phillies lineup not terribly potent against finesse southpaws. During that span, his fly ball ratio has increase, while his Delta H has gone from positive to negatives, indications of not only good match ups for him but also a product of having good luck. A reality check is a strong possibility in today’s game, going up against one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws, and a team with past success against him. Lee’s struggles on the road have continued this year, where he carries an increase home run rate, walk rate, ERA, Whip, and a decreased strikeout rate. Backed by a tired and sub par bullpen should allow the Blue Jays to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Unlike the Indians soft schedule of late, the Blue Jays struggles may be miss diagnosed, as playing three series against solid pitching staffs can slowdown any lineup. Returning back home where they have won four of their last five, and scored 8.2 runs in that span should allow them to make a bid back to .500.
New York Yankees (-154)
It isn’t often that you see the Yankees trade below their fundamental worth, but it is not terribly surprising that they are in today’s game. The Yankees have been carrying the worst ROI in baseball for 2 months now, have their best hitter slumping and a question mark for today’s game, are sending an aging pitcher that may have put forth his worst start in his career in his last outing, and are up against one of the most overachieving (and overvalued) teams in baseball that have beat them 12 of their last 17 meetings. So do they warrant laying this many basis points with this many shortfalls and against the team with the second best record in baseball? In my opinion, yes. In general, injuries to marquee players like ARod are usually over-quantified. This should hold especially true in ARod’s circumstance as he is currently in a 0 for 19 slump, and has not hit a home run in 14 games. Secondly, the line adjustment for his status is over quantified two fold(no longer due to the line movement on the Yankees), as he is more than likely to play this game, a game that is tailor made for him to break out of his slump, as he has thoroughly dominated Colon throughout his career. After starting the season promising, Colon has regressed to the liability he was on the mound last year. He has now put forth two straight months with six plus ERA’s and an increased walk and home run rate. Although he has put forth two straight quality starts from a definition standpoint, they were far from quality in reality. Colon was only able to go six innings against two sub par lineups in the Orioles and Pirates, yet still managed to allow double digit base runners in both. He was hit hard in both games. Going up against a team that dominated him in past years when he was on top of his game should put that quality start streak to an end. Along with ARod, Damon, Jeter and Matsui have dominated him. This should force him into the stretch more than ideally suitable, a situation in which he has struggled pitching in this year, as opponents are hitting .330 against him in this spot. Colon’s lack of productivity on the road is alarming. Despite being backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen who is top heavy, as they lack the depth most elite bullpens have. This is not ideal with Colon on the mound, who is not a likely candidate to work deep into this game. The Yankees are starting to play better at home, and have scored at least five in four of their last five games.
As much as this is a play against Colon, this is a play on Pettitte, a pitcher coming off arguably his worst start of his career, and a pitcher that has proven to be one of the better bounce back starters in the league in seasons past. He has an ideal match up to bounce back yet again, as he has the strengths to counter the Angels assets. Pitching only 42 pitches in his last start, he should come into today’s game fresh and should be able to work deep into this game and avoid a suspect bullpen right now. His finesse style takes advantage of the youth and aggressive tendencies the Angels lineup provides. Having the best pick-off move in baseball should counter the aggressive tendencies the Angels have on the base paths. The Angels bats have clearly cooled down in recent series, and just have not been able to play with the same intensity in their road games, which has shown in their lack of productivity. Although Guerrero and Anderson have shown some success against Pettitte in the past, they have yet to see him in over four years, and may take a go-around to adjust to his style. Pettitte is rare veteran pitcher that still possesses a distinct disparity between home and away numbers, and prior to his last outing had gone at least seven strong in his last four home starts. Expect him to bounce back strong and make it hard for a cooling Angels lineup to provide the adequate run support Colon’s current pitching form demands.
Toronto Blue Jays (Holliday) (-144)
Holliday has consistently been one of the over-bet pitchers in baseball. Despite being able to produce profits while carrying over- priced lines past seasons, his lines have finally caught up to him this season. Rarely is he a pitcher deemed undervalued, but like the Yankees, it is not surprising he is in today’s game. “Public” bettors are no longer blindly backing Holliday, as they have been more price sensitive with him during his underachieving and injury plagued season. Coming off yet another disappointing start as a road favorite and going up against a constantly heavily backed team like the Indians, and Holliday is finally trading at a price that warrants a play in my opinion. Despite his downfalls this season, Holliday has been pitching well at home, and his style of pitching fundamentally matches up with the Indians style of hitting. It is no surprise that he has had past success against them, including a dominating performance late last season. Holliday is one of the harder right handed pitchers for left handed hitters to go deep against, which should curtail the lineup with the most pop from the left side. Past domination against Blake, Hafner and Siezemore should put more pressure on slumping role players in the likes of Garko, Perralta and Nixon. Being able to work deep into games and backed by one of the more underrated pens in baseball should make it hard for Indians lineup to produce up to their standards. Winning 9 of their last 13, and allowing their unsustainable record to be sustained that much longer was done with smoke and mirrors, as beating the Nationals, and the A’s and Drays at home leaves a lot to be desired. Finally tested against Detroit, they lost their fourth road series in their last five, and their second straight against a quality team.
This is a series in which home field is worth more than the conventional 20, as not only is Holliday and the Indians shown a distinct home preference, but the same could always be said for the Blue Jays bats. Although Lee has shown signs of getting things back on track in his last three outings, those starts may be deceiving. Those three starts were against an inferior A’s lineup, a struggling Devil Rays lineup, and a Phillies lineup not terribly potent against finesse southpaws. During that span, his fly ball ratio has increase, while his Delta H has gone from positive to negatives, indications of not only good match ups for him but also a product of having good luck. A reality check is a strong possibility in today’s game, going up against one of the more potent lineups in the league against southpaws, and a team with past success against him. Lee’s struggles on the road have continued this year, where he carries an increase home run rate, walk rate, ERA, Whip, and a decreased strikeout rate. Backed by a tired and sub par bullpen should allow the Blue Jays to have scoring opportunities throughout this game. Unlike the Indians soft schedule of late, the Blue Jays struggles may be miss diagnosed, as playing three series against solid pitching staffs can slowdown any lineup. Returning back home where they have won four of their last five, and scored 8.2 runs in that span should allow them to make a bid back to .500.
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