7-29

Search
Joined
Aug 18, 2008
Messages
1,269
Tokens
No more whining from me. As the price I paid with Bucholz was too much as is but Papelbon and Green are not my favorite players at the moment.

Today's Leans:

Cincinatti -150 Hooray for Harang!
San Francisco -150 "Lincecum and Cain and Pray for Rain"
LA Dodgers + 103 Piniero may be 2-0 vs LAD but they've hit him well overall. LA kind of getting embarrassed at St. Louis and look for maximum effort tonight. IMO...

What else? Colon at Minnesota, Liriano have upside here?
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2008
Messages
1,269
Tokens
Ny Yankees @ Tampa Bay:

One day I'm on the Yanks, next day, I'm on Tampa Bay. Garza has been good at home and Chamberlain has been known to walk a few guys. Last two starts are tough to measure. Easily the Rays are much better thatn the past two. I like the short money on the Rays.

Cleveland @ LA Angels:
Another comeback to wipe me out some money last night. Unfortunately, I might come back with the Indians tonight. Not too sure how much Garko effects lineup devaluation but Laffey has pitched well last couple and against Lackey they could put up 6-7, however they may give up the same total.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
2,016
Tokens
GG,
Good looking card you have going thus far today. I want urge you now to fall into the consensus logic of this forum which has the propensity to determine whether they were on the right side of the game based on the outcome of it (in reference to the Yankees/Rays comment). There is a lot of randomness and noise in a single game, and if the Yankees played the Rays 100 times in yesterday’s situation, the outcome of the game may be 6-2 only once. My analogy of handicapping is that the two teams represent two colored balls in the lotto roller. There are 1000 balls inside the roller. The handicapper’s job is to try to quantify how many colored balls of each team rest in that roller. If you can see with certainty there are 600 Yankees balls in that bin and only 400 Rays balls, and the market is pricing the Yankees ball of being picked at -125, it would be prudent to place a bet on the Yankees. Just so happens, one of those 400 Rays balls gets picked and you lose the bet. Where you on the wrong side? Did you bet a bad number? Anyone who says “yes, you lost the bet” doesn’t get it. Now, obviously, no handicapper can quantify absolute certainty how many balls of each team there is inside the bin. But all you have to do is to quantify it better than oddsmakers and/or the marketplace (depending on when you place your bets).
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
I am not a believer of trying to decipher whether I was on the right or wrong side of a bet in the short run. Too much noise can lead this approach from being counterproductive. I prefer to let my long term results tell me how I am doing, but would rather compare my numbers to the closing numbers in determining short term performance than seeing what ball was picked out of the bin.
 
Joined
Aug 18, 2008
Messages
1,269
Tokens
Buffett,

I will not fall into the trap of who's picking winners and keeping track of record and being on the right side. Sometimes I do vent and my goal from day to day is beating the vig line (as you clearly do on a regular basis). However, I must say I've had a tough season to date and hopefully can close it out strong before the next season approaches.

On to the brighter future...Today's Card: What else caught your eye?

P.S. Thanks for the advice..I do appreciate it!
 

New member
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
2,016
Tokens
Buffett,

I will not fall into the trap of who's picking winners and keeping track of record and being on the right side. Sometimes I do vent and my goal from day to day is beating the vig line (as you clearly do on a regular basis). However, I must say I've had a tough season to date and hopefully can close it out strong before the next season approaches.

On to the brighter future...Today's Card: What else caught your eye?

P.S. Thanks for the advice..I do appreciate it!


My biggest bet on the overnight was once again the Rangers. I got in at +111. Oddsmakers have done a poor job setting the line on this series, and the market has done its best in trying to correct this deficiency.

Another one of my larger bets was on Cain. He continues to be disrepected by oddsmakers, and also the marketplace. I got in at -147. The no-vig line is higher than that now, but still think the market should be doing a better job bidding this price up more.

A bet with a similar size as the above two is on the Red Sox. I did not have a position on either of the first two games, but this line is off, and I am not suprised. Penny has been undervalued for some time now. Anderson has been getting progressively more overvalued as he is become a "sexy" pick- a young early round southpaw pitching prospect starting to pitch well.

Also liked the Reds on the overnight. The market is moving this line against me.

I had the Rays the first two games of the series. Rarely do I find value on the other team betting on one team two straight games. However, I am on the Yankees tooday. Chamberlin seems back on track, and the oddsmakers and market alike have brushed it off.

I think the Braves have some value at the current market price. I also have a few other small positions.
Best of luck.
 

New member
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
2,016
Tokens
Excellent points.

Do you feel the early games are priced efficiently?

I put in a really small play on the Cubs last night at -176. I would not touch it at the current market price.

Small play on the Indians as well.

Giants have been mentioned

No play on the Blue Jays game (as of now).
 

New member
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Messages
1,144
Tokens
Disappointed the Reds line has stayed the same. Grabbed the O's at +133 small, Rangers +110 medium. I was hoping Mariners sent out the same line up as yesterday then i would of took Bluejays small but no play there.

May play Redsox if the line ends up -160, if the Market believes in Anderson.

Seems like Joba and Garza both have tough match-ups here. Bullpen plays a key role here IMO, but does home field set it off? playing the Over 9 at +114

Anyone have any read on the Phillies/Diamondbacks game? Looks like a fair line. Are there any hints for Happ to get hit here or Petit to put out a soliding outing?
 

New member
Joined
Dec 19, 2005
Messages
2,016
Tokens
Disappointed the Reds line has stayed the same. Grabbed the O's at +133 small, Rangers +110 medium. I was hoping Mariners sent out the same line up as yesterday then i would of took Bluejays small but no play there.

May play Redsox if the line ends up -160, if the Market believes in Anderson.

Seems like Joba and Garza both have tough match-ups here. Bullpen plays a key role here IMO, but does home field set it off? playing the Over 9 at +114

Anyone have any read on the Phillies/Diamondbacks game? Looks like a fair line. Are there any hints for Happ to get hit here or Petit to put out a soliding outing?

Yes, the overnight on the Giants crushed the close. Suprised to see the market take so long to move that line.

I am a bit suprised that the Reds line hasn't move a little bit, but bearish sentiment is on the Reds right now, which may provide opportunities to back them for the next couple of weeks. I am interested to see where this closes.

I value the Phillies slighly less than the market does, but I have a large margin of safety, and no current position on the game.

Forgot to mention, the Twins are one of my larger bets today.
 

New member
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Messages
1,144
Tokens
Liking the Braves now that it gained 10 cent at +150 for medium. Market finally is catching up to Marlins hitters and respecting them, working counts, laying off bad pitches, key hits, etc. Yeah, Johnson deserves to lay big chalk at home against Kawakami, but there are other factors as Braves have the offense to hang wit the Marlins, especially if they can work Johnson to only 6 innings then it'll be a bullpen battle where Florida is showing little signs of a down side there.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,797
Messages
13,573,231
Members
100,869
Latest member
yaseenamrez
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com