GG,
No surprise that today it is the underdogs that are coming with value. As expected, oddsmakers inflated some favorites, and the market just added to this inflation by bidding up the opening price on some of these teams. Betting underdogs can produce bad days due to the increase in variance of longer odds, but value is value.
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There was very small value on the Reds with the opening price, and the market just opened the Reds up as a small play by making their line shoot up 7%. The Cubs are hot, the Reds are not. If one thinks that the angle for betting the Cubs, they are sadly mistaken. The odds reflect this notion.
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Very small play on the A’s at this price. Not expecting a win here, but they have a better chance than the market thinks. The market shot the A’s price up 23% off the open. Seeing a pattern?
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I would love to bet against Tallet and the Jays, but not at the current market price. I value the Rays at -108 (prior to lineup info), so if the line drops a little, I will enter a small position on Price.
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I entered a medium/large position on the Cardinals on the overnight at +124. Their current no-vig price is +115. At +112 or better, the Cards would be a medium play, anything worse; it would be a small play.
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The most undervalued team on the overnight was the White Sox. Oddsmakers love <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1
lace>Jackson</st1
lace></st1:City> and truly think his current form is sustainable. The fact that the market bid down a favorite with a hot pitcher and being at home tells you something. Clearly not as much value on the White Sox compared to the overnight, but still warrant a medium play at the current market price.
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The market bid up a slightly inflated line on the Mariners. The Indians have small/medium value at the no-vig price of +170.
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I put in a nice size position on the Twins last night at +115. It looks like I will crush the closing line here. The fact the market bid down a price on one of the hottest teams in baseball goes to show you how off oddsmakers were on the open. Small value left on the Twins.
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I put in a small position on the Mets last night at +131. I would touch them at the current price.
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The market is sending the Brewers game in the wrong direction right now. Hanson’s current form is not sustainable, nor is the Braves team. Looks like it is time to go against them. Medium play on the Brewers.
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No play in the Padres/Nats game. Looks like the market doesn’t know what to do with that line either.
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Lester’s overvalued tendencies offset <st1:City><st1
lace>Boston</st1
lace></st1:City>’s undervalued tendencies. No play at the current market price.
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The oddsmakers did well with their setting of the Rangers/Royals game. The market agrees.
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Medium play on the Dbacks.
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Medium play on the Giants
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No play in the Marlins/Dodgers game.
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As always, positions expected to change due to line moves and new available information.
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