Sweetland, I am on it. Mostly using the "series system" where I belive that the Brewers will never allow themselves to lose a series to the pirates. most books have them as slight dogs to. so I am hoping on it early.
That and Yanks RL, I do not have the odds for that yet though, anyone want to help me out?
That and Yanks RL, I do not have the odds for that yet though, anyone want to help me out?
Last night I got in on the Rockies at 2x the suggested Kelly bet amount, as I used half as a trading vehicle. Why? My valuation model showed Shertzer undervalued the night before. Rarely does a team become undervalued one night against another team, and then overvalued the next game against the same team unless there is a pitcher or two who is consistently over/undervalued in one of those two games- which was not the case in either of these two games. There was a strong indicator this game would move, and the Rockies would not trade in an undervalued range for long. Since the bet, the Rockies price has gone up by over 25%. If you can bet the DBacks at +200 or better, you are getting some value, but I would certainly not make it a large play.
In my opinion, the Astros are the most undervalued team on todays card. The line is starting to get bet down, and I am expecting a bit more buy down heading into the close.
In my opinion, the Astros are the most undervalued team on todays card. The line is starting to get bet down, and I am expecting a bit more buy down heading into the close.
I was thinking the same thing with Wellemeyer. It'll be interesting as the trade deadline comes down with St. Louis. I don't know too much about about the farm system and availability of prospects. They will be a player on the open market. Penny, Halladay and someone else I heard the other day.
On a side note do you set a value to each game and with it comes your differential and therefore plays are calculated as small/medium/large? I know you quantified AZ different yesterday but do you have a precalculation for each game like years past (creating intrinsic value).
I do to a certain point on most games utilizing all the facets of the game. It looks like over the past couple of years you've also included line movement along with your past market strategy.
Setting the Price
GEKKO
Gecko,
Most certainly. Essentially that is was advantage fundamental handicapping is- trying to quantify the % chance each team has of winning a particular game, converting it into a money line which derives the intrinsic value, finding disparities between the intrinsic worth and current market price, and placing a bet based on your preferred risk management technique. Any other form of fundamental handicapping is patchwork that probably lacks a sustainable edge to earn a profit. So each game I derive a intrinsic value for each team and a margin of safety. The margin of safety is predicated on valuation error, which is mostly due to the predictability of the starting pitchers, how comfortable I feel I can process the available information on the starting pitchers, and how good of a read I feel I have on the aggregate team(i.e. I am starting to increase my margin of safety of Angels, Rangers, and Indians games due to the anemic ROI I have on bets I make when these teams are involved.
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> </o>For example, my valuation model suggests the Giants have a 52.38% chance of winning today’s games. The converted money line is -110, thus the intrinsic value I have on this game is the Giants -110/Braves +110. I feel that both the predictability of both Lincecum/Jurrjens and both teams as a whole are above average. The required margin of safety is 2 cents, thus the lines in which I use for my ideal Kelly Criterion ratio is the Giants -108/Braves +112. I do not break down bet sizes based on arbitrary small, medium and large, rather what Kelly suggests to the exact dollar. I just use the small, medium and large for simplicity of posting, but obviously that is not the most rational or mathematically optimal approach to reduce risk or maximize growth.
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> </o>When new information comes out on a particular game (i.e lineup cards) I adjust my intrinsic values accordingly. Line moves do not directly effect my intrinsic values on games, however, I respect what the market has to say, and if they are disagreeing with me, I try to find out why. Although line moves do not effect my intrinsic values directly, they do effect the optimal position on should have on a particular game, as Kelly recommends hedging off of line moves.
Gecko,
Most certainly. Essentially that is was advantage fundamental handicapping is- trying to quantify the % chance each team has of winning a particular game, converting it into a money line which derives the intrinsic value, finding disparities between the intrinsic worth and current market price, and placing a bet based on your preferred risk management technique. Any other form of fundamental handicapping is patchwork that probably lacks a sustainable edge to earn a profit. So each game I derive a intrinsic value for each team and a margin of safety. The margin of safety is predicated on valuation error, which is mostly due to the predictability of the starting pitchers, how comfortable I feel I can process the available information on the starting pitchers, and how good of a read I feel I have on the aggregate team(i.e. I am starting to increase my margin of safety of Angels, Rangers, and Indians games due to the anemic ROI I have on bets I make when these teams are involved.
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For example, my valuation model suggests the Giants have a 52.38% chance of winning today’s games. The converted money line is -110, thus the intrinsic value I have on this game is the Giants -110/Braves +110. I feel that both the predictability of both Lincecum/Jurrjens and both teams as a whole are above average. The required margin of safety is 2 cents, thus the lines in which I use for my ideal Kelly Criterion ratio is the Giants -108/Braves +112. I do not break down bet sizes based on arbitrary small, medium and large, rather what Kelly suggests to the exact dollar. I just use the small, medium and large for simplicity of posting, but obviously that is not the most rational or mathematically optimal approach to reduce risk or maximize growth.
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When new information comes out on a particular game (i.e lineup cards) I adjust my intrinsic values accordingly. Line moves do not directly effect my intrinsic values on games, however, I respect what the market has to say, and if they are disagreeing with me, I try to find out why. Although line moves do not effect my intrinsic values directly, they do effect the optimal position on should have on a particular game, as Kelly recommends hedging off of line moves.
Excellent points. When using your Kelly Criterion ratio is there a particular site that you use. I've read many sites on it and when calculating the ratio is there one that stands out in particular? Mostly easy to use...
