Buffett,
Excellent point on LA as both you and I agree the lineup should digress without Hunter (MVP like numbers) and Vladimar G.
On the Sox I agree with price and result however, I do tend to have a bias being from Massachusetts and a Red Sox fan in general. It may have played into yesterdays play. At Halladays closing price at 110 made it a play in my book. Although, I've faded Toronto religiously over past three weeks, I believe their was some value.
On to today,
Like the Sox as stated above..Believe Millwood has had extremely good year, however with the lineup presented may cause some problems. Not a big fan of Smoltz, but with a lineup that Strikes out as much as Texas does, a veteran pitcher may slide past the 6 inning mark.
Milwaukee playing good ball and looking into them.
As stated previously like the Cubs and Lilly...Don't know if it'll warrant a play
Royals will be a medium play most likely.
Thoughts on others?
Looks like we are on the same page with today's card. In my opinion, the Red Sox are the most undervalued team on today's card. Millwood is starting to regress, and this is a bad fundamental matchup for him. The market was starting to get bearish on Millwood (they predicted the regression before it happened) about a month ago, but apparently are going the other direction. Maybe they think a bounceback after the break, or are just simply bearish on Smoltz until he can string some quality starts together. Nonetheless, the market is moving the price against me, but the intraday movmement is starting to form a V. I am expecting the market to send the Red Sox back to possible favorites before the close.
Last night, the Brewers had the second most value on today's card. I got in at +107. The market is sending this price in the right direction, but still value left on the table. Olendorf has put forth a solid WHIP this year, but still coudn't manage to keep runs off the board. He is starting to allow more baserunners, and hasn't proven capable of pitching out of the stretch. The addition of Lopez shores up the Brewers main weakness, and will provide more depth to their lineup.
I got in a small play on the Cubs last night at +110. Their best available price right now is +105, which probably no longer warrants a play (unless new info on the lineups increases their worth).
I got in a medium play on the Royals this morning at +124. Will probably buy back a portion of that position before the close, as the market is continue to send this price to a more efficient level. Oddsmakers missed the boat in this one.
You might want to take a look at the Nats. I am suprised oddsmakers set this price this high, but I still think they are undervalued. I think the Nats brought up Martin at just the right time to face a torn up lineup. Hernandez has been known to lack effort on the mound, and it appears he is in one of those modes right now. The Nats are playing just as bad as the Mets, but are playing harder.
Oddsmakers were forced to inflate the Twins line with the way Blackburn has been pitching and with how poorly Gonzaelez has been pitching. Generous price for the A's if you want to look past the obvious.
There are some small value plays left out there as well.
Best of luck today.
