It is rare for me to have some many games on one card have their intrinsic value deviate from their market price compared to today’s card. Hopefully that is a good thing. Here are three of the eight or nine underdogs that I will have positions on.
Tigers +122
It seems that the Twins have their supporters back after coming back from the all star break with a four game home sweep. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in their last series, as it was against a team currently playing worse than any other team in the league right now; and they really didn’t win in convincing fashion. After opening up as an underdog against Floyd, it appears that people are finally willing to back Garza after he was able to back up his words with a dominant showing in his first start of the year. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in Garza as that was a start in the second game of a doubleheader following up a thirty plus run game that was a product of tired bats for the White Sox in game two. Although there is no denying Garza’s “stuff” is the makeup of a big league pitcher, I am not quite sure if he is mentally or (experience wise) ready for a Tigers lineup, which is unequivocally the best road lineup in the league. Nerves got the best of Garza in his home debut last year, and really didn’t show he was ready for the better lineups in the league. His continued struggles against right handed hitters makes him vulnerable to a well balanced lineup like the Tigers. His power pitching style and monitored pitch count does not make him a likely candidate to go deep into this game. Although the Twins have a deep bullpen which holds a decisive advantage over the Tigers pen, with Rincon’s struggles that have pushed back front end pitchers to later innings, the Twins are no longer as strong in the front end to back up a pitcher not likely to eat many innings. The Tigers have not experienced much of a slowdown at the plate coming out of the break, scoring 21 runs in their last three games. The Twins lack of punch at the plate will make them dependent on solid pitching in order to hang with this Tigers team- a variable that is a huge question mark with Garza on the mound.
Robertson has been a big disappointment this year. However, his struggles appear to be fully factored into today’s line, and is not a struggling pitcher that holds as much risk as most, as he is backed by the best lineup in the league. Robertson has shown some improvement in his last two outings, as he allowed less than a hit per inning in those two starts against potent Indians and Red Sox lineups. Although lacking impressive career numbers against the Twins, Robertson in fact dominated them last year, and put forth a solid outing in his only start against them this year. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that has dominated the combination of Mauer and Morneau more than Robertson, as they come into today’s game a combined six for 40 against him. The eight day lay off should do Robertson’s tired arm some good, and help improve his command that has suffered because of it. So should the notion of the Twins only having 22 home runs against southpaws this year and just one starter hitting over .300 against such a pitcher. He has shown some career success pitching indoors.
Tigers +122
It seems that the Twins have their supporters back after coming back from the all star break with a four game home sweep. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in their last series, as it was against a team currently playing worse than any other team in the league right now; and they really didn’t win in convincing fashion. After opening up as an underdog against Floyd, it appears that people are finally willing to back Garza after he was able to back up his words with a dominant showing in his first start of the year. However, I would be weary of putting too much stock in Garza as that was a start in the second game of a doubleheader following up a thirty plus run game that was a product of tired bats for the White Sox in game two. Although there is no denying Garza’s “stuff” is the makeup of a big league pitcher, I am not quite sure if he is mentally or (experience wise) ready for a Tigers lineup, which is unequivocally the best road lineup in the league. Nerves got the best of Garza in his home debut last year, and really didn’t show he was ready for the better lineups in the league. His continued struggles against right handed hitters makes him vulnerable to a well balanced lineup like the Tigers. His power pitching style and monitored pitch count does not make him a likely candidate to go deep into this game. Although the Twins have a deep bullpen which holds a decisive advantage over the Tigers pen, with Rincon’s struggles that have pushed back front end pitchers to later innings, the Twins are no longer as strong in the front end to back up a pitcher not likely to eat many innings. The Tigers have not experienced much of a slowdown at the plate coming out of the break, scoring 21 runs in their last three games. The Twins lack of punch at the plate will make them dependent on solid pitching in order to hang with this Tigers team- a variable that is a huge question mark with Garza on the mound.
Robertson has been a big disappointment this year. However, his struggles appear to be fully factored into today’s line, and is not a struggling pitcher that holds as much risk as most, as he is backed by the best lineup in the league. Robertson has shown some improvement in his last two outings, as he allowed less than a hit per inning in those two starts against potent Indians and Red Sox lineups. Although lacking impressive career numbers against the Twins, Robertson in fact dominated them last year, and put forth a solid outing in his only start against them this year. In fact, there is not a pitcher in the league that has dominated the combination of Mauer and Morneau more than Robertson, as they come into today’s game a combined six for 40 against him. The eight day lay off should do Robertson’s tired arm some good, and help improve his command that has suffered because of it. So should the notion of the Twins only having 22 home runs against southpaws this year and just one starter hitting over .300 against such a pitcher. He has shown some career success pitching indoors.