63-0-2 ATS trend for Conference Championship games

[Ataraxy]

Since 1970, in Conference Championship games where the line is less than 10 points, the winning team is a perfect 63-0-2 against the spread.

So based on this trend for Sunday's games, if you like the favorite don't worry about giving the points, and don't play the ML. But if you like the dog, you should play the ML instead of taking the points.

 

[Brotherwo]

wow.. this is confirmed?

if it is that is absolutely amazing

 

[MikRetSam]

nice trend........ but it will happen sooner or later, i always take the pts if its 3 or more

 

[aiverson]

I can only confirm back to 1991, but this is correct thru that period.

The favorites (of less than 10) have gone 15-10 ATS and 15-10 SU.

Favorites of 10 or more have gone 7-2 SU but 2-7 ATS since 1991.

 

[aiverson]

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<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> I can only confirm back to 1991, but this is correct thru that period.

The favorites (of less than 10) have gone 15-10 ATS and 15-10 SU.

Favorites of 10 or more have gone 7-2 SU but 2-7 ATS since 1991.
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I traced it back to 1978 and can confirm a 47-0 record. For the Super Bowl, it is 17-3, with the three losses being when a 6 or 7 point favorite won by 3 or 4.

Also can add in the last 10 years, the Favorites have won 8 and the Underdogs have won 7, so pretty even.

 

[JTrotter]

I was considering a ML parlay with Pitt/Philly, but I guess I'll rethink that play and give the points now.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Overall teams that win in the conference finals are 68-6-2 ATS since 1970. All six non-covers were double digit favorites:

1983 Redskins -10.5 vs. 49ers 24-21W
1991 Bills -11 vs. Broncos 10-7W
1995 Steelers -12 vs. Colts 20-16W
1999 Rams -14 vs. Buccaneers 11-6W
2001 Rams -12 vs. Eagles 29-24W
2008 Patriots -15 vs. Chargers 21-12W

Interesting to note the 1999 Rams were the only team from that list to win the Super Bowl but did not cover the spread, favored by 7 points over Tennessee and winning 23-16.

Big Lou

 

[YankeesRule]

So it is due for a loss

 

[LIONSJUNKIE]

:think2:

 

[michaelj]

do you think ace ace would like to meet this guy ? no

 

[michaelj]

63 and 0 what da f---k .

 

[captain_vood]

I may be missing something here, but...

Couldn't the underdog require the points to win ATS and still compliment the streak? In other words, going ML probably pays better, but to fit the streak (and win), you might need the points.

Is my logic flawed?

 

[JTrotter]

I may be missing something here, but...

Couldn't the underdog require the points to win ATS and still compliment the streak? In other words, going ML probably pays better, but to fit the streak (and win), you might need the points.

Is my logic flawed?

Yes....Apparently the dog in these games has never needed the points (except for the 2 pushes). Either the dog wins straight up or they don't cover as long as the spread is less than 10 points.
Points don't matter unless the spread is 10 or more.

Last year it was 1-0 as the Giants beat Green Bay straight up as an 8 or so point dog. The other game New England was a double digit favorite so it didn't fall into the system.

 

[ColonelLingus]

I may be missing something here, but...

Couldn't the underdog require the points to win ATS and still compliment the streak? In other words, going ML probably pays better, but to fit the streak (and win), you might need the points.

Is my logic flawed?

Dead on from how I see it.

 

[crispyHaole]

if and only if you accept this trend as as strong as it looks, you would then be able to bet both the favorites, giving points, as well as both dogs, on the ML. Bet the correct amounts on both games and as long as the trend holds you have yourself a small profit, depending on the betting limits of your book. Or.....you get middled. Is the "juice worth the squeeze"? Thoughts?

P.S. If you don't get what I'm saying please don't bother responding to this.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Great, sounds like my Philadelphia ML bet is now going to be a Philadelphia ATS bet.

 

[ACE-ACE]

So based on this trend for Sunday's games, if you like the favorite don't worry about giving the points, and don't play the ML. But if you like the dog, you should play the ML instead of taking the points.

as far back as 1980...all nfl games ...points only matter in 14-18% of all games

 

[aiverson]

as far back as 1980...all nfl games ...points only matter in 14-18% of all games

Which is a huge % of games. There is a very large difference between 0% and 14-18% in my opinion.

When 4% is a huge difference between a losing season of hitting 50% winners and a winning season of hitting 54% winners, you had better take into consideration the point spread if it matters 14-18% of all NFL games.

I've never understood your logic with regard to this statement. Oddsmakers want you to believe it is as easy as "pick the winner". From years of experience you should know that strategy is the quick road to the poor house.

 

[captain_vood]

Again, I am confused here I guess. It would seem that if points can only result in either a win or a loss (or a push), how can the percentage of games where points matter be a range? Wouldn't it be a single percentage? If the points matter 14% of the time, then 86% of the time they don't. How can it be 14-18%?

 

[Rayder4gold]

Hello letsgohoosiers

Could you please turn on your private messaging - id like to send you some info and compare

Thanx Rayder