60% win percentage

samslaught · Feb 5, 2009

I've heard many players on here happy to win 55%-60% of the time.

Can someone explain to me why winning 55%-60% of the time works in the long run? A typical spread bet pays -110. Wouldn't the juice kill your profits. Am I mis-understanding the way they are calculating these percentages?

yanni_gogolak · Feb 5, 2009

100 bets at 1 unit
you go 60-40
60 wins = 54 units
40 loss = -40 units
total = +14 units

guychance · Feb 5, 2009

You only need to win 53% of your games to break even. 55% is a winning ratio. Winning over 55% of your games over the long run is possible but yet difficult. Most will probably fail due to poor money management.

My advice to you stick with flat bets...

Winners: 55% $100 x 55 = $5,500
Losers: -45% $110 x 45 = -$4,950

Winning amount: $550...

samslaught · Feb 5, 2009

interesting. I always thought I would need a much better winning percentage than that. Thanks for the answers

HacheMan · Feb 6, 2009

Plus you have to consider books that offer lower juice nowadays.

Take advantage of them if you can.....

Broncos625 · Feb 6, 2009

Hache Man said:
Plus you have to consider books that offer lower juice nowadays.

Take advantage of them if you can.....

Sure wish the books here in Vegas would offer reduced juice. :toast:

dice711 · Feb 6, 2009

Here's how you calculate your profit or loss.

X = Win%
Y = 1-Win%
Juice = 10% or -110

X - Y - (Y*Juice) * Number of Bets * Amount Per Bet =

For Yanni's Example which he calculated wrong.
.60 - .4 -.04 * 100 * $100 = +$1600

Let say you went 53% which is just above the profit line.
.53 - .47 - .047 *100 *$100 = +$130

52% which is just under the profit line
.52 - .48 - .048 *100 *$100 = -$80

How about the above 2 examples with a -105 reduced juice book
.53 - .47 - .0235 *100 *$100 = +$365
.52 - .48 - .024 *100 *$100 = +$160

You can actually go below 52% at a reduced juice book and still be profitable. Something to think about.