| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.24 |
| Last 30 Days | 23 | 19 | 0.00 | +6.04 |
| Season to Date | 38 | 33 | 0.00 | +9.36 |
#670 SANTA CLARA +10 -106 over St. Mary’s
11:00 PM EST. For years, the West Coast Conference has more or less been a two-horse race. There is the perennial conference heavyweight Gonzaga, who sits in the top-three across the board in many prominent polls and then St. Mary’s who has played second fiddle to Gonzaga but has been a consistent bubble team in the NCAA Men’s Tournament discussion. The Gaels currently sit at 18-2, with a sparkling 8-1 conference record. Their one loss was at the hands of the undefeated Zags two weeks ago. Despite that and despite a shocking loss at home when they were undefeated whilst hosting UT-Arlington, the Gaels currently sit as a #6 seed in many analysts’ brackets for March. While Randy Bennett has not led his team to a West Coast Conference championship in five years, while boding a four-year drought from the Men’s Basketball Tournament, Mary’s has nonetheless emerged on the national stage as a perennial power in the NIT and a consistent 20-game winner. Last year, St. Mary’s finished 29-6 and may be well on their way for a similar result in 2017.
Santa Clara comes in at 9-11 ATS with a 12-10 record overall. So on paper, the number seems appropriate for the venue. However, the Broncos stand at 9-4 at home this season. While St. Mary’s bodes insane defensive numbers (as they own the 2nd ranked scoring defense in America), the Broncos are not slouches by any means, as they only surrender a 51st ranked, 65.6 points per game. Both outfits have played nearly identical non-conference schedules in terms of strength and quality but Mary’s has had a bit more good fortune but this market couldn’t care less about good or bad fortune. At the end of the day, it can easily be assessed that Santa Clara truly is undervalued given St. Mary’s reputation.
For St. Mary’s, it’s the same story every single year. It’s like when you were a kid and watched the Wizard of Oz every year. The story always ended up the same way but you watched it anyway. The story of the Gaels is in its final chapter once again. The first three chapters were about a team with a great record that finally ready to knock off the Zags but just like every year, it does not happen. After getting crushed every year in that showdown, the Gaels subsequently crumble afterward. Two weeks ago, St. Mary’s lost to Gonzaga by 23 points and this is their first road game since that crushing defeat. The Gaels will now be spotting inflated points to a team that is coming in off a huge home win against BYU and that has also beaten Valparaiso earlier this season. As a 14-point pooch, Santa Clara had no qualms rolling up their sleeves and scrapping it out with Arizona either in the year and they actually have a chance to win this one on the square but man, these points are juicy. So, just like the Wizard of Oz, this story is likely going to end the same way once again with the Gaels not defeating Gonzaga and suffering a couple of more hideous losses while coming off the bubble and into the NIT. Take the points.
#554 OKLAHOMA +137 over Florida
2:00 PM EST. Though these two schools met on the gridiron in the 2009 BCS National Championship, these two teams have not met on the hardcourt in over 20 years. The last time the two met for a game, current Coach Lon Kruger was at the helm of the Gators, as he had powered the Orange and Blue to the Final Four in 1994. Kruger has achieved similar success during his present regime in Norman, as Oklahoma made it to the Final Four last year, only to fall the current defending champion Villanova.
The point is that Lon Kruger knows how to win at the highest level and his résumé speaks for itself. The markets are bound to be especially sharp in this contest be that it is a fixture of national interest, contributing to a docket of games known as the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. Florida comes in with a 15-5 record and #25 ranking next to their name while Oklahoma seems to have taken a step back this season by owning a record of 8-11 overall. When you toss in a ranked team with a strong record against a losing team that is unranked with little lumber to lay, it seems like a surefire play but we say uh-uh. You see, as efficient as Florida has been on both sides of the ball while navigating the 13th ranked strength of schedule, the Sooners are on the verge of some wins because they are loaded with talent, albeit young but they’re growing up fast and paying their dues in the process.
The Sooners have been on the dirty side of the coin on several occasions over their 2016-17 campaign, owning a 349th luck quotient while playing the 5th toughest schedule in all of America. The offensive numbers for Oklahoma may be less captivating compared to that of Florida, but they also played the 4th toughest assortment of defensive units in the country. The Sooners are also the more physical team, as they hold the edge in rebounding. Furthermore, Oklahoma is better from the charity strip, which means this outfit has a multitude of ways to stay in games.
Oklahoma has won five of their eight games at home. They have struggled mightily on the road and have been a sub .500 play straight up in neutral site games. Nevertheless, this team has lost three games in overtime this year and lost five more games by five points or less. With a little bit of good fortune, the Sooners could easily be 11-8, if not better. This is a basketball team that has gone out to West Virginia recently as a 16½-point pup and pulled the upset outright in Morgantown. Oklahoma’s potency for an upset bid is certainly evident. The Sooners are going to be a powerhouse either next year or the year after but the time to capitalize on their talent would be before the market catches up. That time would be now. There is great profit potential on OU and we’re suggesting it begins here. OU outright gets the call.
GEORGIA TECH +6½ -106 over Notre Dame
12:00 PM EST. This is a good day for contrarian bettors to get involved. This is the first weekend since football started back in late August that there is no football. In other words, there will be plenty of bets today from the masses that will be switching gears and stepping into college hoops for the first time this season. That provides us with plenty of opportunities and it starts at noon (EST) with the ranked Fighting Irish spotting road points to the feisty Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech.
The Fighting Irish may not even be the better team here. Notre Dame is 17-4 but that was mostly accomplished in their 294th ranked out-of-conference schedule. Against ranked opponents, Notre Dame is 1-4 but the market sees its 17-4 record and not its 1-4 record against ranked. Furthermore, the Irish are top-heavy, which means no bench and as soon as one of their starters gets into foul trouble, it opens up the door for a big run by the opposition. This will be Notre Dame’s fifth road game of the year. It is 3-1 on the road but all four games have been decided by five points or less including a 78-77 OT win at Pitt. Now the Irish are being asked to spot more points than their biggest road victory margin.
The Yellow Jackets are just 12-8 but they are improving with each passing game while building a tournament entry résumé in the process. Coming off of a big win over Florida State, Georgia Tech may have more momentum right now than the Irish. Tech’s win over FSU was legit, as that is not the only giant they have taken down this season. The Yellow Jackets also defeated #9 North Carolina and VCU in OT in Virginia. Georgia Tech has perhaps the best freshman guard in the country in Josh Okogie. What the Yellow Jackets really thrive off of, though, is their frontcourt. Ben Lammers and Quinton Stephens are two of the best upperclassmen in the country. Throughout the entire season, these three players have led Georgia Tech in every game they’ve played. The Yellow Jackets are one of the up and coming underdogs of the 2017 season and they are now being rewarded for playing the 23rd ranked SOS in the country. Even if the Jackets lose here, which we’re not conceding for a second, they should bring it in under the inflated points being offered.
#681 Furman +3 -106 over UNC-GREENSBORO
2:00 PM EST. Earlier this week, we faded UNC Greensboro against Wofford when they were taking back a bucket against a team that the market perceived was inferior to them. The Terriers would rout the Spartans and now we see Greensboro once again coming into a situation where they are vulnerable to yet another funky number. Despite a loss against a Wofford team that owned a losing record, the stock on UNC-Greensboro seemingly has continued to rise. In the latest edition of Bracketology, we have seen UNCG rise from a #16 seed to a #15 seed in the projected tournament brackets.
As we have covered previously, the Spartans are one of the luckiest teams in America. The luck quotient for UNCG sits at 7 and they remain 6-7 ATS as a result. The Spartans were winning games they should have lost and their performance portfolio reflects this. How the Spartans recover from that aforementioned 19-point loss and how the defeat affected their psyche remains to be seen, but one thing is certain and that is they are overvalued once again.
Meanwhile, the Paladins have been steamrolling every team they have come across in the Southern Conference lately. They also have a six-point loss at both Michigan and Georgia earlier this year, not to mention an OT loss to Winthrop. The Paladins are the forgotten team in the Southern Conference because they had not won a post-season game in 40 years prior to last season’s victory over ULM in the opening round of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament. Along the way, Furman won a school-record 14 home games, including 11 in a row.
Furman head coach, Niko Medved signed a new contract this week that will keep him in Greenville through the 2021-2022 season. Charged with rebuilding Furman’s basketball program prior to the 2013-14 season, Medved guided the Paladins to the finals of the 2015 SoCon Men’s Basketball Championship in just his second season, including scoring victories over the tournament’s #2 and #3 seeds. Last season, he guided the Paladins to a 19-16 overall record, 11-7 league mark and that aforementioned first postseason victory in 40 years. Medved has the 2016-17 Paladins off to a 13-8 overall record and 6-2 league mark, which has Furman in third place in the SoCon standings entering this tilt at first place UNCG. The Paladins are coming off a 3-0 home-stand that extended their school-record SoCon home winning streak to 14 consecutive games. We wanted to give you the skinny on this underdog before our final summarization. UNC Greensboro is a first place conference team at home spotting one possession to a completely unrecognizable program that this market rarely gets behind. The mistake would be to spot that one possession because the line says so. We’re pretty sure the number will rise prior to game time so you may want to wait if you are on board. We're splitting this up and playing Furman +3 -106 for 1.06 units and Furman +137 on the ML for 1 unit to make up our traditional 2 unit wager.
#646 UC DAVIS +129 over UC Irvine
8:00 PM EST. This play conforms to our position about being reluctant to spot road points in any Big West Conference game, be it that the cast of characters in this conference overall should be in a tragic comedy. The Big West is one of the worst conferences in all of college hoops, a league of marginalized basketball teams that can yield enormous amounts of parody. In conferences of this caliber, the underdogs bode tremendous value, be that the constituents are so bottom-heavy. The teams that sit atop the standings are most prone to upsets and when you factor in home court advantage, the away teams are most susceptible to being licked on any given night. Situationally, Irvine is set up to fail, as they are spotting points, albeit minimal ones, to their arch nemesis, Davis in Sacramento on the Aggies home court. That’s wrong.
The Aggies (Cal Davis) are 6-5 ATS as an underdog and have won their last two games as an underdog outright, both of which were on the road. Their most recent triumph was at the defending conference champion Hawaii’s house where the Aggies would leave the Aloha State with a 76-70 victory. Contrarily, Irvine recently snapped an eight-game winning streak with a hideous loss at home against Cal Poly, losing by 13 despite being a 13-point favorite. With Davis looking for their first win against the Anteaters since 2015, now is an excellent time to fade the Anteaters because they are simply not that good and their confidence took a huge hit in that aforementioned loss to Cal Poly.
Contrarily, Davis is riding high off a big win and they figure to carry that momentum on their court against a most hated foe. A win for Davis puts them in the driver seat of this conference race and we like their chances to get it. At 5-0, Cal Davis is the only Big West team undefeated at home this season. The Aggies pace the Big West in defense at 62.0 points per game in conference play. Winners of six of their last seven games, the Aggies also figure to be well rested, fresh and raring to go. This matchup will mark UCD’s third game in three weeks after having played their first three conference games in nine days while Irvine played just two days ago. To win, the Anteaters have to shoot a high percentage from the floor, which they have so far (51.1%). That’s an unsustainable number and we all saw what happened last game (a 13-point loss to Cal Poly) when the shots weren’t falling for them. The Anteaters will now face the savvy defense of the Aggies, on the road no less, with their shooting confidence taking a hit. Wrong side favored.
#690 MONTANA STATE -106 over Eastern Washington
4:00 PM EST. Eastern Washington seems like a delicious play given the fact the Eagles sit at 14-7 overall with a 6-2 record in the Big Sky conference compared to that of Montana State who sits with a losing record of 10-12. The details will reveal that the assessment of the Bobcats is fairly accurate. Montana State sits at 5-4 in Big Sky play and they are nipping at the heels of EWU in the tournament race. Montana State owns an impressive 8-5 record at home this season while Eastern Washington is just 4-6 on the road.
The details will reveal that the assessment of Eastern Washington is not accurate and thus it embodies teams’ we love to target EWU is one of those fortunate teams’ that has gotten too many lucky bounces already this season, as they are the 3rd luckiest team in all of America and have done so playing the 246th ranked schedule. Just to go over that luck quotient theory one more time in case you missed it, it goes like this; the theory is that games decided by four points or less are either lucky victories or unlucky losses because of missed free throws, bounces off the rim and referee calls. In other words, these types of games are a 50/50 shot so a team that wins a high majority of them is lucky while a team that loses a high majority is unlucky. It all evens out over time.
Contrarily, Montana State sits at 311th overall in terms of luck while playing the 320th ranked schedule in terms of strength. While EWU may have played a tougher schedule, they have caught a lot more breaks than the Bobcats. In addition to the more captivating record by Eastern Washington, the Eagles have been dominant in this series overall as of late. The Eagles have won six of their previous seven against the Bobcats but it is worth noting that EWU is just 2-2 in the previous four in the Bobcats’ den. The market puts emphasis on series history while we only care about what happened most recently with both teams’ carrying the same cast of characters or pretty damn close. We could not care less about what happened six years ago because it has ZERO impact on the outcome of this one.
What we simply have here is an emphasis on Eastern Washington’s victories and their stock being through the roof, even if Montana State is also riding a hot hand. There is an overall reluctance and lack of faith by the general public in the Bobcats compared to the Eagles and now that general public is being offered a poisonous proposition in that they do not have to spot anything. In summarizing, EWU has covered their last five successfully. As a four-point favorite, EWU would defeat Idaho State by seven. Next, they would cover as a nine-point pup at the defending conference champion Weber State when they lost by a three-ball. The Eagles would follow that up with sparkling victories as a 13½ and 14-point favorite in the next two games and cover impeccably. Following that, EWU would win by 12 at Montana as a four-point road pup. The Eagles have been a cash cow recently and so now would be the perfect time to sell.
ML plays are all for 2 units. Point-spread plays are to win 2 units.
