5th & 6th "Biggest Bet of Year" Plays(LTech OV & OU UN)

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glennlovecolleen3

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2 Plays this week:

***** SMU/Louisiana Tech Over 49 *****

***** Texas AM/Oklahoma Under 60.5 *****

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Smu/louis tech analysis:
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The total is to low. I can see Louis tech scoring 40+ pts by themselves in this game. Lets look at this game closer though.....

Louis tech didn't score much in their first four games. First one was against Miami, and the next three on the road. After that, the next four wac games, they scored 37 against boise st at home, 38 at utep, 41 at home vs hawaii, and 42 at nevada. They really got this offense going. They stumbled at LSU last week, but come on, it's LSU, who has one of the best defenses this season. I'm confident Louis tech will tack on 40+ pts against smu. Smu's defense will look like high school players after louis tech faced LSU's powerful defense last week. Louis tech has a great qb in mcnown and one of the best running backs most people never seen this year in Moats. SMU won't be able to stop them.

To put into perspective how bad SMU's defense is, check this out.....

San jose st scored 31 against SMu, their highest scoring output this season.
Tulsa scored 35 against smu, their second highest scoring output against a wac team this seaon.
Utep scored 21 pts against smu, their highest scoring output on the road this season.
Oklahoma st scored 52 pts against smu, their second highest scoring output and highest scoring output on the road this season.
Texas tech scored 58 pts against smu, their second highest scoring output this season.

(Note: Their was 3 games that smu was able to hold their opponents to less than 12 pts in the game. First was baylor, who is a bad offensive team, then nevada and fresno st. I think the low scoring output by nevada was due to the fact that they left a ton of emotion in their previous game at san jose st in a war that turned out a 42-30 win for them. Coming back home, I think they just took smu for granted. Just like nevada, fresno st the week before playing smu, had a hard fought war and an emotional close win at home against rice 31-28. Again, a letdown week for fresno st, which i feel for the low scoring output against smu. Louis tech is not going into this game in a letdown position. Louis tech has had only three home games so far this season, they get blown out by Miami, then lose two high scoring, down to the wire battles to two of the best wac teams in boise st and hawaii. Finally, they have a very weak opponent this week. They are looking for their first win at home and will look to hammer smu.)

Why did the books make the total so low then? I don't think it's a question whether Louis tech will light up the scoreboard, it's more of a question how much smu will tack on the board. Louis tech might score a lot, but will smu score much points at all? I think that's why the books made the total low.

If you look at smu's road games, they only scored 10 against a horrible tex tech defense, only 7 to baylor!! Only 9 against Nevada!! The over total don't look as tempting now does it? however, they got better, they scored 14 at san jose st and 16 at tulsa. Louis tech's defense is just as bad or even worse than these teams. Boise st scored 43 on Louis tech, pathetic utep scored 35!! Hawaii scored 44. Nevada scored 34!! I imagine smu will score atleast 14 points in this one. And with Louis tech scoring atleast 38, that's atleast 52 pts right there.

Here you have a team playing at home with a potent offense, and two weak defenses. i expect big passing plays by Mcnown and big runs by moats for louis tech. Long td plays equal big scores. With all the troubles SMU has, they do have a good running back in kinkaid, that should have some big runs against louis tech's mediocre defense. Kinkaid was able to run against a lot of other teams with a better defense than Louis tech has.

Lets now put louis tech's horrible defense into perspective.....

Miami scored 48 against them, their second highest scoring output and highest scoring output on the road this season.
Boise st scored 43 against them, their second highest scoring output on the road against a wac team this season, the only other higher scoring output on the road in the wac was against, you guessed it, smu.
Utep scored 35 against them, their second highest scoring output, and their highest scoring output in the wac this season.
Hawaii scored 44 pts against them, their second highest scoring output, and their highest scoring output on the road.
Nevada scored 34 pts against them, their 3rd highest scoring output, and their highest scoring output at home this season.
LSu scored 49, their second highest scoring output this season.

Louis tech has scored over 35 pts two times and over 40 pts two other times against wac defenses stronger than SMU's defense. Louis tech should light smu up. And louis tech is one of the weaker defenses smu will be facing this season. Smu scored 19 against utep, 14 against san jose st, and 16 against tulsa. They should score around the same or even more against louis tech.

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Tex am/Oklahoma analysis:
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If their is any game that Oklahoma will score below their avg, it's this one. Oklahoma has got the number one spot locked up. All they have to do is win games, don't matter if it's by 30 or 3 pts and they will remain number one.

Their are so many variables that says this game is going under:

Texas AM has to be going into this game thinking, just keep it in range and maybe something crazy happens to pull off the upset. They will eat clock and go to their bread and butter running back C. Lewis. They will start by running the ball and getting long sustained clock eating drives, and as long as they stay within 2 scores of OU, they will keep pounding it on the ground.

They will limit passing cause of risk of interceptions and sacks that will just force tex am into more passing plays, which they don't want to do against OU defense.

R. Works, OU's top rusher is out for this game. I don't think it makes a big difference, but it helps if you consider a new running back won't do as well. The bad thing is that it may make OU go to the air more, however, I'm thinking tex am is not a threat so OU will stick to their regular game plan, because the less times Jason White goes back to pass, the less chance of him getting injured. Right now, just win games, play conservative and not risk mistakes. The defense will hold.

If OU gets up big time at the half by 21+ pts, look for them to stick to the ground the second half and eat clock to end the game. Again, they are just looking to win now, not to impress the rankings committee. They will sit Jason White out late in the game if need be or get conservative.

If the game stays within 2 scores in the second half, expect Tex am to keep pounding the ground and the clock.

Oklahoma's motivation can't be as high as last week. Tex am doesn't look like a threat, they got no 1 locked up, just win games and conserve healthy players. No need to score 50 pts per game anymore. Texas Am will be hungry for the upset though, look for them to play hard on defense to hold OU to under 50 pts.

Concerns or not:

Tex am has to take care of the ball. This game is about ball and clock control. If they start turning over the ball and let Ou special teams get big plays, it could get ugly real fast.

In tex am's last 3 games:

Nebraska scored 48 on them.
Oklahoma st scored 38.
Kansas scored 33.

Now they are going to Oklahoma. This is a concern, however, again, I think how much total points that will be scored in this game weighs heavily on how Oklahoma approaches this game.

If you look at OU's last three games:

OU only scored 34 against Mizzou.
OU only scored 34 against Colorado.
OU scored 52 against ok state.

The 52 aginst ok st is a concern for the under, but OU had to be much more hyped up to score big against OK st than they will be to score on Tex am. Jason white was still playing in the 4th quarter even when they were up by 29 pts. Then he throws a 66 yard TD pass. And reserve comes in and does a reverse to receiver Mark Bradley, who then threw the ball back to the reserve qb in the end zone for another td. Ok st beat OH the last 2 seasons so they had reason to hammer ok st. I doubt they'll be doing this stuff against tex am.

Against Texas, after OU was blowing them out, Jason white was still playing in the fourth quarter and he threw a 38 td pass. I doubt Jason white will be throwing long balls if they are up by 24+ in the fourth quarter against tex am.

The ok st and texas games were statement games to impress, but tex am is definitely not a statement game. Just getting the win and keeping players healthy is all that matters.

Goodluck
 

tommybpa

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Sep 21, 2004
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Great analysis on both games good luck today will be riding along. Thx for the work you put in.
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muffinman

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Sep 21, 2004
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Glen,
W/ ya on both plays, nice write-ups. I think th eLo-tech game should be an easier play.And I know you know your shit in the WAC. Let's cash today...this week has taken me for a ride thus far...
 

dazzle

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Sep 21, 2004
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Glenn

you dont mention anything about the revenge factor for OU. Do you think this might be a factor in a non statement game?

any input appreciated

glta
 

glennlovecolleen3

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by muffinman:
Glen,
W/ ya on both plays, nice write-ups. I think th eLo-tech game should be an easier play.And I know you know your shit in the WAC. Let's cash today...this week has taken me for a ride thus far...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The way the OU game is going, maybe I should just stick with the wac.
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I need to really pull for the Louis tech game now. I'm confident it will come through.
 

glennlovecolleen3

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The gambling gods just ain't giving me any breaks this season.

I had OU game Under, and what do they do? They score 77 pts, the most pts in a game for them all season. Truly unbelievable!!

I had Louis tech/smu game Over 49, and what happens? They total 34 pts in the first half, I just needed 16 measely pts in the second half. Looking good right? Looking really good right? Nope, they only score 13 pts in the second half. And these two teams have real horrible defenses, too!!! Unbelievable!!

I got enough account to bet only one game next week, if I lose that one, I'm done for the season. *shaking head*
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1-4-1 (-17u)
 

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