| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 26 | 27 | 0.00 | +7.74 |
| Season to Date | 38 | 58 | 0.00 | -24.36 |
Carolina +158 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Carolina Hurricanes are once again among the puck possession leaders. It is rare to see them get outplayed and they also dominate other areas as well. They are the best face-off team in the NHL, meaning they are usually controlling things after the puck drops, which happens 40 to 50 times a game on average. The ‘Canes also rank #1 in penalty killing. On defense, however, is where the Hurricanes really shine. They've been able to find diamonds in the rough with later-round picks, and have built up an impressive amount of defensive depth throughout their system. Too much emphasis is being put on Jordan Staal’s injury here and while Staal will be missed, the ‘Canes system is built around every player contributing. This wager is now twofold in that Carolina should not be taking back prices like this against anyone and the Rangers cannot be priced in this range against them.
The Rangers started off as a really strong puck-possession team but it was short-lived after coaches had film of what the Rangers were trying to do. Over the last month, New York’s puck possession numbers are even worse than last year, where they went into the playoffs and were absolutely destroyed by the Penguins. The Rangers are now 15-8 and have the second most points in the league. We even saw one publication last week post the Rangers #1 in their power rankings. That is further proof of results having a bigger influence than performance. Calling the Rangers the best team in the NHL is embarrassing to that publication. The Rangers are the luckiest team in the NHL in the most luck-driven sport of the major four (hockey, basketball, baseball and football). In no other sport do teams get dominated on a nightly basis and emerge victorious. This past Friday, Philadelphia outshot the Rangers 42-23, out-chanced them, 24-12 and had a dominating puck possession edge of 63% to 37% but New York won, 3-2. Prior to back-to-back games against Pittsburgh last week, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their recent 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they’re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. As a big favorite here, the Rangers will very likely get out-played. That alone prompts us to step in.
CHICAGO -½ +140 over Florida
Regulation only. Starting goalie Corey Crawford has a terrific .929 even-strength save percentage for his career and may be the league's most under-appreciated goalie. He is currently boasting an absurd .955 mark. Spanning out a bit, some of the Blackhawks' issues have been covered up by their crazy-good goaltending. They rank 16th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 11th in Corsi for percentage. Now that Jonathan Toews is out and Chicago returns home from a seven-game trip and Florida has the “first game with a new coach” angle working, the price on the Blackhawks here is deflated, which makes us instant buyers. Chicago can compensate for the loss of Toews with an abundance of skilled forwards. We’ll discuss the Blackhawks more at a later time but for now, this one is all about fading the Panthers.
The first game for a new coach is one that usually provides a boost of energy but this one might have the opposite effect. Gerald Gallant was a player’s coach. Gallant is a traditional hockey guy. He’s done it at every level. He’s paid his dues. His credo is to keep it simple, work hard, and do things the right way. Players absolutely love him. He was fired on Sunday following an offseason of major roster turnover despite a division title. He was fired while keeping his team afloat with significant injuries, including Jonathan Huberdeau, who is out months with a leg injury. He was fired after guiding his team to a 6-4 record in its past 10, and keeping them within two points of a playoff spot. Making it worse are the photos of Gallant waiting for a cab outside the arena in Carolina. Gallant was kicked to the curb to wait for his own ride home. Hockey has a culture of doing things the right way and this wasn’t it. Gallant, at the very least, deserved a ride to wherever he wanted to go next and that’s the absolute least. Panthers’ management will pay a price for the treatment of Gallant and it could easily come over the next few games. The Panthers have the right to hire and fire whomever they like. They’re not wrong in making a change but the biggest mistake in this move was the way it was handled. You cannot take the human element out of anything and the way that Gallant was let go cannot be sitting well with anyone in that dressing room. A big response on the ice is not the way you show disapproval and we trust that’s what’s in store for this game tonight. We’re betting the Panthers have a bad reaction (poor performance) to the way Gallant was treated.
Arizona +201 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Sharks are indeed capable of repeating as Western Conference champs but that does not mean they can’t be beat and it does not mean that they’re worthy of prices like this on a Tuesday night game in late November. For one, the Sharks are scoring goals at a rate not nearly high enough to warrant these prices and they’re not in great form either with a 3-4 record over their past seven games. Coming off a long, grinding postseason run, San Jose will be flat in several games this year both at home and on the road and so the reward here is greater than the risk.
Quietly, the Coyotes are heating up by picking up points in five of their last six games. Mike Smith has been playing at a high level since returning from an injury and as long as you get good goaltending, you always have a chance to win in this league. The ‘Yotes are creating plenty of chances too with 36 shots on net or more and 24 scoring chances or more in three of their last five games. Arizona possesses an outstanding group of puck moving defensemen. New additions to the defense Jakob Chychrun and Tony DeAngelo look promising and they join two other great defensemen in Michael Stone and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. There are pieces here to compete every single night and now that their confidence is higher and they’re playing well after a slow start, we’re not going to pass up prices like this on the Coyotes when their chances of winning are legit. Overlay.
Buffalo +130 over OTTAWA
OT included. Past the quarter mark of the season already and the Senators are without question this year’s biggest surprise so far with 14 victories in 22 games. Ottawa is also hot right now with four consecutive wins, which includes a 4-3 victory in Montreal and a 2-0 victory over New York on Sunday. However, Craig Anderson has been playing out of his mind and the numbers say that regression is inevitable. In those four aforementioned wins, Ottawa posted 23, 26, 24 and 20 shots on net respectively while surrendering 33 or more or three of the four. In 15 of their 22 games this season, the Sens have lost the puck possession battle and also lost the high quality scoring chances battle. Ottawa is not a weak team that should be losing every night, as they do some things very well but they are not a top-5 team and winning games is not sustainable when you’re the second best team on the ice so often.
It really does not matter how Jack Eichel performs here in his season debut because his mere presence on the ice is worth so much more. Eichel is an impact player for sure but he’s also a team leader that has earned the respect and admiration of every single player on that Sabres bench. Buffalo has suffered without their leader but they have been competitive and figure to have a little extra jump in their step here. With Eichel, the Sabres are going to be dramatically better and we can think of all the possibilities that give them a fast-forwarded result. O’Reilly should continue to be a Corsi hound while producing points. Sam Reinhart is starting to play like the player he looked like at the World Junior Championships. Rasmus Ristolainen is starting to harness the kind of talent that had people at the Stanley Cup final thinking he could develop like Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman. Evander Kane makes a difference every time he’s on the ice. Not many folks watch the Sabres but the entertainment value should go through the roof with Eichel back and the other players picking up their game but more importantly, their stock is so low that the value on them has not been this good in a very long time. Keep your eye on the Sabres, as there is great profit potential and it likely starts here.
Montreal +104 over ANAHEIM
OT included. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here because it’s not necessary. Goaltending decides more games than anything else in the NHL and that means Carey Price always gives the Canadiens a better chance of winning than losing. The Habs are solid all around but Price pushes them to a level that is hard to match. The explanation for Montreal’s success may be as simple as the return and high-end play of Price, but there are some people in hockey who believe the subtraction of P.K. Subban has been a real positive for that dressing room. Shea Weber has been everything the Canadiens had hoped for.
The coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Randy Carlyle has not been a good one for the Ducks and things might get worse. Anaheim is now two games under .500 at 10-12. There is always player movement and line juggling. The constant tweaks that Carlyle tries to make are taking a toll and so are the trade rumors. Randy Carlyle is not coaching material. He fluked a Stanley Cup with Anaheim a few years ago but it was not his doing; he was just the beneficiary of landing there at the right time. While we like the personnel of the Ducks, we have never liked Carlyle will never do anything significant again under him. This is one game in which of course anything can happen but give us Price versus Gibson 100% of the time when taking back a tag and give us the dressing room in a much better frame of mind. Incidentally, Anaheim is 1-6 versus top-10 teams.
All plays are for 2 units
