| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 34 | 42 | 0.00 | +1.96 |
| Season to Date | 194 | 274 | 0.00 | -40.66 |
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All plays are for 10 units.......just kidding....2 units each.
COLORADO +110 over Los Angeles
9:10 PM EST. Rich Hill has thrown a mere 111 innings over the past two seasons split between Boston last year and the A’s and Dodgers this year. Oh, to be a lefty and blessed with infinite opportunities. After years of chronically terrible control, Hill changed his arm slot last summer and actually found something (great command and a double-digit K-rate vL and vR). It would be very easy to call it a blip but it's just enough to hold our attention for now but not as a road favorite in Colorado. Hill’s swing and miss rate in his last start was 6% (3 K’s in 6 IP) and that came after he missed some starts with a blister. That strongly suggests his grip has been altered. He’s still a pitcher that throws just 89 MPH. While we are not going to take anything away from the success Hill has had, this venue could not care less. There has never been a pitcher unaffected by the park factors here and that alone makes Hill a risky investment spotting a price. The Rockies are winning a high percentage of their home games these days, which includes the opener last night (8-1) against Rookie-of-the Year favorite, Kenta Maeta.
Tyler Anderson is also a lefty and is very used to pitching at Coors. Colorado’s pitchers know not to panic when trouble sets in or when they allow some runs because it is just part of dealing with pitching half your games at Coors. Aside from that, Anderson has been outstanding at home with the underlying support of a strong collection of skills: 8.2 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and 53% groundballs. The Rockies have won six of Anderson’s nine starts at Coors, which includes a 12-2 beat down of these Dodgers back in early August. Los Angeles is not in better form than the Rocks are right now and again, Rich Hill’s recurring blister problem may have forced him to change his grip on the ball because his K-rate last game was WAY down. We’ll see how that plays out but we trust we’re going with the best of it here.
Oakland +156 over HOUSTON
8:10 PM EST. The A’s hosted Cleveland last week and lost the first game of that series before winning the final two. This past weekend, Oakland went into St. Louis and lost the first game of that series as well before winning the final two. Oakland went into Houston last night and lost the first game of that series………
Graveman’s 3.97 ERA and the team he pitches for is enough to scare off most bettors. His 87 K’s in 150 innings suggest there’s little to see here. Yawn. Move on, right? Well, maybe. Kendall Graveman could be a surprising source of profit down the stretch. Graveman’s control has always been good and now he trusts his stuff even more. He’s down to 2.2 BB’s/9 with an elite 71% first-pitch strike rate. Where Graveman sets himself apart is in the ground game. Among starters who’ve thrown at least 110 innings, his 52.9% ground ball rate sits 19th in the league and while the groundball rate on most of his pitches have decreased this season, his cutter, which he’s throwing more often, is inducing them 62% of the time. Graveman’s velocity is also up across the board. His swinging strike rate has jumped two points, buoyed by increased velocity across all pitches and more movement on his sinker, cutter, and change. And while the league-wide chase rate is at its lowest since 2009, Graveman’s is up. So along with throwing his ground ball-inducing cutter more often, he’s also upped the usage of his whiff-inducing slider, leading to more ground balls and more strikeouts. Graveman’s 5.2 K’s/9 won’t turn any heads but when he gets two strikes on batters, which is often, he’s inducing a plethora of groundouts. At this price, he’s worth a wager here against Collin McHugh.
McHugh is a rags-to-riches story. Formerly Colorado’s waiver fodder and New York Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level at that time, in December of 2014 and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he pitched like an ace in two subsequent years since then. This year, however, is a bit different. He comes into this start with 5.01 ERA this year with 12 pure quality starts in 26 tries. Over his last five starts, McHugh’s ERA was 6.15 with a 1.63 WHIP. Look, McHugh has been somewhat unfortunate this year. He has an excellent BB/K split of 40/141 in 142 innings. However, his struggles are not new and his weak 38%/30%/32% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is one that suggests fatigue may be settling in. McHugh’s 204 frames last year was the most he has ever pitched in one year and he’s already up to 142 innings this year. Bad outings also play on one’s mind. At the end of the day, the Astronauts can obviously win here but there is a big premium to pay on them to find out. The A’s can win too.
Minnesota +192 over CLEVELAND
7:10 PM EST. Perhaps the Indians go out today and clobber the Twins. Perhaps Andrew Albers gets knocked out in early and Josh Tomlin throws a gem. That is quite possible but just like last night when two stiffs (Bauer v Santiago) combined to shut out two good offenses, one really never knows what is going to take place on the diamond. What we do know is that Josh Tomlin cannot be priced like he’s Carlos Carrasco because he’s not. Tomlin has an unsightly 17%/26% dominant start/disaster start split this year. Control specialist Tomlin continues to show very average skills with a 4.49 xERA. Tomlin has struggled with the HR ball throughout his career, which adds to the risk of spotting a big number. Tomlin does not miss a ton of bats so like many of his ilk, he relies on command and the slings and arrows of where balls land fortune (and infield defense). Tomlin is so not worthy of this tag.
Meanwhile, Andrew Albers has been toiling between the minors and majors over the past six to eight years. Albers' first professional season was in 2008 with the Padres, where he started just five games before suffering an injury that would lead to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he missed all of 2009. After playing independent ball in 2010, the Twins signed Albers to a minor-league contract. Albers is the prototypical Minnesota control and finesse pitcher. He can eat up innings and pitch efficiently deep into the game. Albers throws strikes with precision command and induces weak contact and lots of groundball outs. He also gets a surprising number of strike outs considering the lack of overpowering stuff. His best pitch is an 87-91 mph sinker followed by a decent slider and improving change-up. Albers has to rely on pitch mix and pinpoint control to keep hitters off balance, but he has learned to do it very effectively. Hmmmmm, come to think of it, Albers’ story mirrors Josh Tomlin’s. These two are near identical in skills and approach but the difference is Tomlin is better known and is laying a massive number. We’ll take back a huge price and take our chances, thank you very much.
San Diego +144 over ATLANTA
7:10 PM EST. The Padres continue to pay off but the data shows that they are the least bet team in the majors. That data means the oddsmakers are forced to offer the chalk against San Diego at inflated prices, which is certainly the case here with the Braves. The Padres are a pesky and feisty bunch that just took two of three in Miami and that also has 12 wins in their past 25 games. In other words, they’re winning almost as much as they’re losing these days. They’ll now face a Braves team that knows a thing or two about losing ball games and that should never be priced in this range.
Edwin Jackson goes for the Padres so we’ll plug our nose and hope for the best. Jackson had given up seven runs in 11 IP as a reliever prior to being released by Miami at the end of May, after which he was signed to a minor league contract by the Padres in mid-June. The departure of Drew Pomeranz allowed Jackson to step into a starting role. He coughed up 10 earned runs over 13 innings in three Triple-A starts before getting this assignment. Surprisingly, Jackson has four quality starts in seven tries. He’s only being asked to eat some innings on a rebuilding team so he’s playing with house money right now. Any major league pitcher can throw a good game against Atlanta’s weak offense and Jackson is no different. This wager, however, is not about backing Jackson but more about fading Julio Teheran and Atlanta at this price.
Teheran has been back for three starts after being DL'd for a little more than two weeks. So far in 2016, he has an ERA of 3.15, but an xERA of 3.82. Here’s where it gets interesting. Teheran's been an ace against right-handed batters, but a disaster against left-handed batters, which is key here because the Padres will send as many as six left-handed batters to the plate. It would be well worth your time to check out the opposition's lineup in deciding whether to bet Teheran or fade him. We’ve done that for you. Incidentally, Teheran is 0-5 at home and the Braves return from a seven-game trip through Arizona and San Fran.
MILWAUKEE +141 over St. Louis
8:10 PM EST. Wily Peralta is a young, 27-year-old ground-baller that spent June and July of last year on the DL with a left oblique injury. His skills showed he wasn't the same guy upon his return. Peralta’s fastball velocity dip prompted a K-rate/swing and miss rate slide, while his shaky first-pitch strike rate culminated in a sharp 2H control fall-off. It was his first major injury in quite some time. This year, Peralta spent the first two months in the Brewers rotation before being sent down for two months from June 11th until August 9th. Since then, Peralta has been better and he appears to be getting his strength back. Peralta’s velocity is back up to 95 MPH. His swinging strike rate in his last start was 11% and his first-pitch strike rate was 71%. He recently went three straight starts of six full innings before his last start in which he labored through five innings but still only surrendered two runs. His groundball rate is elite at 51%. Peralta is returning to the form that saw him post outstanding numbers from 2012 to 2014. He’s not there yet but he’s damn close and it could come quickly. Invest now.
After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He’s made 18 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 26. That’s 156 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He’s walked 12 batters over his past 24 frames while striking out 19. That’s a really weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% overall to 6% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last six tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA/6.86 xERA split and a 1.92 WHIP. He’s now favored like he’s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly. Huge overlay here.
