| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 32 | 31 | 0.00 | +21.24 |
| Season to Date | 34 | 37 | 0.00 | +13.32 |
All plays are for 2 units
Colorado +112 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Despite not having the results to back it up, the Avalanche are playing much better the past few games. Colorado has lost four of its past five games but has cut way own on shots against over that span. The Avs have taken just two minor penalties or fewer in three of their last four games. Four of Colorado’s last five defeats and six of their last eight have been by just one goal so a few bounces and they could easily be on a seven or eight-game winning streak. Colorado is on the verge of some wins and couldn’t have handpicked a better situation or a team as ripe to get beat as the Flyers. It’s also worth noting that the Avs embark on a seven-game trip beginning here and that’s when teams’ are often at their best. We trust we’ll get a strong, focused effort out of Colorado here.
The Flyers return home from a very difficult five-game trip that started in Buffalo and ended with four straight on the Canadian West Coast. The Flyers scored eight times in five games on said trip and were outshot in every single game. The Oilers outshot them, 49-22. In fact, Philly has had 28 shots on net or less in six straight games. The Flyers are a weak possession team, they’re having trouble scoring and their defense appears more confused out there each game. This is a good take-back in a very favorable situational spot for the Avs in a game we give them better than a 50% chance of winning.
Washington -½ +130 over DETROIT
Regulation only. The Capitals aren’t destroying the field lately, which allows us to still get them at some pretty nice prices. Washington is coming off an OT victory at home against the Maple Leafs in a game they scored with one second left in regulation to tie it. That doesn’t increase their stock. The Caps have a recent 5-2 loss against the Rangers and 2-1 victories over both Florida and Columbus with the former also going into OT. Had they been winning convincingly like Dallas for instance, we wouldn’t be taking back such a sweet price in Detroit to win in regulation. Fact is, the Caps are a true juggernaut in every sense. They have allowed a mere 25 shots on net in seven of its last 10 games and 19 against in two of those. The Caps have drawn 10 penalties in their last two games while taking three or less themselves in seven of the past eight games. This is a structured system under Barry Trotz that usually has the puck and is relentless in the offensive end.
Detroit is the opposite under new HC, Jeff Blashill. The Red Wings usually don’t have the puck. They have been chasing games this entire season but their .500 record masks that. Against Dallas on Sunday, the Red Wings were outshot in the first period, 15-8 and followed that up with three shots on net in the second period. Detroit, with five power-play opportunities against Washington, managed just 22 shots on net the entire game. Against Toronto on Friday, the Red Wings had 24 shots on net. Detroit’s strength of schedule ranks 30th out of 30 teams. They have played just two top-10 teams this season and in those games they are 0-2 while being outscored 8-2. Corsi and Fenwick are meant to be indicators of puck possession, or how much a team controls the puck in the offensive zone during a game. Corsi looks at everything thrown at the net while not caring what happens to the puck after a shot is attempted. So whether it goes in the net, hits the goalie, hits a post, goes wide, or gets blocked before it gets there, it counts. The Red Wings Corsi-for (CF%) numbers are second last in the league ahead of only Colorado. This isn’t a fair fight no matter how you break it down.
Calgary +117 over FLORIDA
OT included. We played the Panthers on Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles and never really stood a chance in their 4-1 loss to the Kings. We normally don’t put much emphasis on one defeat but when a team plays like they don’t belong on the same ice as the team that beat them, it’s worth noting. We have not seen a team get dominated the way Florida did on Saturday in a very long time. That scored could’ve been 12-1. What is so disturbing about that loss is the Panthers went into that game on a four-game losing streak. Instead of digging down deep in an attempt to snap out, they rolled over in an ugly way. Over its last five games, Florida gas scored seven times and two or less in all of them. The Panthers now return home from a three-game West Coast trip where they were outscored 12-5. The Panthers have dipped all the way down to third last in the league in shots allowed per game. This was supposed to be a year of great improvement for the Panthers but it’s getting uglier by the week.
Calgary has five victories in 15 games. Win/loss records have a big influence on the line and they also have a big influence on market perception. Calgary’s .333 winning percentage allows us to buy this team at a bargain price. We’re not sure if people understand just how good these Flames are. They are 5-10 because of weak goaltending otherwise they might be 10-5. When the Flames get good goaltending, they win. Kari Ramo is coming off back-to-back quality starts. The Flames have won three of four while scoring 12 goals in those three victories. Rookie Sam Bennett is playing outstanding after a slow star. Bennett has three goals and eight points in his last six games. Newcomer Dougie Hamilton is getting more comfortable out there as well with three points and a plus-two rating in his last six games. It’s almost unfair that T.J. Brodie, Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano play on the same team. GM’s dream at night of having one defenseman like that, let alone three. Calgary is suddenly feeling much better about things after consecutive victories that include a 5-2 in over the Penguins on Saturday. The market sees Calgary’s great season from a year as being a fluke but it wasn’t a fluke at all. This year they are better than last year by a significant margin and so plenty of wins are forthcoming as long as the goaltending is adequate. Big overlay.
Carolina +170 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers have won five in a row and six of their past seven games but there is no way they are going to maintain that pace with the way they are playing. The Rangers are third last in the league in puck possession percentage. In other words, the opposition has the puck far more often than they do. In the Rangers just completed two-game trip to Colorado and Arizona, they allowed 70 shots on net and took nine minor penalties. New York’s “puck luck” has been off the charts. Opponents have scored just 24 goals on the Rangers in 448 shots on net for a shooting % of 5.36. That is the lowest shooting % against any team in the league. Most teams shooting percentage is between 9 and 11%. PLEASE don’t try and make the argument that it’s because of Henrik Lundqvist. It’s because deflected pucks are missing the net, period. Nonetheless, that opponent 5.36 shooting percentage is absolutely, 100% unsustainable. We also like that the Rangers return home from a Colorado, Arizona road trip. It’s only two games but it’s not an easy trip and they have the Blue Notes on deck.
Carolina can compete here. Analytics suggest the ‘Canes can compete with anyone. Carolina’s puck possession numbers rank third in the league just behind Los Angeles and Washington and just ahead of St. Louis and Dallas. That’s pretty good company they’re surrounded by. The ‘Canes also rank second in shots on net allowed just behind Washington. Carolina has outshot six of its last eight opponents, which include a 40-28 edge over the Kings, a 31-28 edge over Dallas and a 46-21 edge over Ottawa in its last game. In 14 games overall, the Hurricanes have been outshot just three times while completely dominating puck possession in a high majority of their games. We now get an extremely generous price on a very live puppy against a way overvalued favorite and we’re not about to pass it up.
Vancouver +106 over COLUMBUS
OT included. This game has a lot more intrigue today than it had 2½ weeks ago. That was about the time that the Jackets couldn’t get out of their own way so they gave Todd Richards the axe and hired ex-Canucks coach, John Tortorella. Torts was run out of Vancouver, where he was hated by everyone (fans, not players). The storyline is that Torts wants this game badly. Of course he would never admit that but the players know it so it does not have to be said. That’s all very nice and makes for good drama but this is a hockey game and we cannot trust the Jackets as the chalk upon returning home from a three-game West Coast trip, not to mention seven road games in their last eight contests overall. In other words, the Jackets have been traveling, getting ready to travel or arriving at their next destination every day since October 20. They are 0-5 at home and this is not a favorable spot or game for them. The playing well for a new coach angle is going to wear off too real soon.
Maybe the Canucks players hated Torts more than the fans. Maybe they want to stick to him so badly because he was always quick to go off on somebody or throw a player under the bus. Vancouver figures to be extremely hungry in this one. The Canucks are in the midst of a seven-game road trip where they’re 0-2 thus far. A loss here and suddenly Vancouver is looking at a potential disastrous trip. The Canucks were clearly the better team in Buffalo on Saturday and they were the better team against the Devils on Sunday but ran into a super-hot Cory Schneider. The Canucks are a very appealing dog. Vancouver’s Fenwick for numbers are strong and rank 11 positions higher than the Jackets Fenwick for numbers. Amazingly, the Canucks have lost eight games this year with every single loss being by one goal. In other words, Vancouver could be 15-0 instead of 7-8 because they have been in a position to win every game. This is a hungry visitor that desperately wants to turn their trip around and we completely trust them to get it here.
