BALTIMORE -3½ -102 over Washington
1:00 PM EST. One of the most difficult things to do when betting on NFL football or any other sport for that matter is to come right back on a team that cost you money the previous game. We had the Ravens last week and were not impressed with their performance at home against the Ravens. That is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. What we see here is a deflated number based on Baltimore’s not so impressive resume thus far combined with the Redskins winning two straight so let’s start with Washington’s two wins.
The Redskins fell behind the Giants 19-7 before rallying to win it late. The Giants had the ball last with a chance to win it but Eli Manning threw a pick and the ‘Skins held on. Last week, Washington defeated Cleveland. The Brownies had the lead the entire time through three quarters but turned the ball over three times in the second half to second to give the ‘Skins hope. Washington outscored Cleveland 14-0 in the final quarter but pretty it was not. We were high on the Redskins to start the year but after watching them for four weeks now, we are not impressed at all. This has been a dysfunctional franchise for years. It looked like they were going to break that pattern by they’re not. Dysfunctionality and a bad aroma surround them. The Redskins players are an undisciplined bunch that could easily be 0-4 right now. If you have watched the Giants and Browns play football, Washington’s narrow victories over that pair reveals even more of just how vulnerable and soft they really are. These Ravens have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about winning after losing a game that was in their grasp and the Redskins are precisely the team that isn’t likely to provide much resistance. We were wrong about the Redskins and will look to take advantage of their misleading and rather troubling two-game winning streak.
DETROIT +3½ -106 over Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST. The last time we saw the Eagles, they destroyed the Steelers in Week 3 with a 34-3 home win. What makes that victory even more impressive is that the Steelers went on to absolutely crush the Chiefs the very next week. The Eagles are now 3-0 coming off an early bye week, and they have not won a game by fewer than 15 points. The Eagles have a rookie quarterback who has not thrown an interception. Through three games, all wins, Carson Wentz has thrown for 769 yards and five touchdowns. When Philadelphia traded away veteran quarterback Sam Bradford before the season began, it meant they were making a decision to throw Wentz into the fire and it has worked out beautifully…..so far.
After opening the season with a 39-35 victory over the Colts at Ford Field, the Lions have failed to find a victory since. They came close in Week 2’s one-point setback to the Titans, and even played decent in the 34-27 defeat at Lambeau. What was not expected, however, was the loss to a Bears team that some felt would go 0-16 this season. The squad now finds itself in the cellar, tied with Chicago for last place in the NFC North. Detroit had trouble generating offense in Chicago, gaining just 263 yards, 66 of which came on the ground. The Bears were missing their starting quarterback, running back and their star wide receiver was banged up. With a 1-3 record and failing to win last week against the pitiful Bears, the Lions are a hard sell this week at home to Philly and that's just the way we like it. This one doesn't pass the smell test, as action will likely be quite lopsided in favor of Philly but we forewarn you that the odds makers are not in the habit of giving away money.
The Eagles have a ton of market appeal right now while the Lions do not. However, Philly’s bye week was ill-timed, as it stops the momentum they were gaining. No team wants a bye while they are winning and perhaps a reality check awaits the Eagles here. Time will tell whether they are legit but the books are betting they are not quite this good. Odds makers made a bad call last week when they made Denver an easy looking 3-point favorite in Tampa Bay. The Broncs covered easily but don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice in two weeks. Wagering on NFL football is not about breaking down strengths and weaknesses and figuring out which team has an edge. If it were that simple, we would all be cashing in. It’s more about figuring out where vulnerable spots come from. It’s about buying low on undervalued teams and selling high on overvalued ones. Perhaps the Eagles are completely legit and go into Detroit and whack them. The more likely scenario however, is that Detroit plays a fine game and the Eagles get brought back down to earth. That’s how the odds makers see it and we like being on their side.
N.Y. Giants +7 -107 over GREEN BAY
8:30 PM EST. We must keep pounding home the notion that the greatest over/under-reactions are to the previous week’s prime time games. There are three of those every week starting with Thursday night and followed by Sunday and Monday night. Last Monday, we all watched Eli Manning play in fear in Minnesota, as the Giants got whacked by 14 points, 24-10. That score was flattering to the Giants. The point is that if you watched the G-Men play last Monday and most that bet on football did, it would be so difficult to come back on them here. This is now a great overreaction to the Giants horrible showing last week while the Packers are at Lambeau with two weeks to prepare.
We’re not unlike anyone else. We wagered on the Giants last week at Minnesota and lost. We have a very hard time coming back on them this week because they looked so bad. The New York Giants have lost all of their market appeal after that disgusting effort six days ago. That is precisely the right time to step back in so we’re going to ignore everything we witnessed last week because we always stress to never put too much emphasis on one game. Besides, Eli is not going to get the same heat from the Packers that he got from the Vikes. This is exactly the type of game that Eli Manning and the Giants usually win, or at the very least keep close. New York is 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as underdogs of seven points or more. They nearly beat the Patriots and Panthers a year ago when they were heavy underdogs. Manning will not be playing this one with fear in his mind and now the Giants’ offense could have a breakout performance against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. This is one of those strong wagers that sees us jumping on when most of the market is jumping off.
MINNESOTA -6½ -106 over Houston
1:00 PM EST. The most incredible thing about this game is that the Texans are 3-1, which goes to prove that with a little luck and some good timing, even a team as bad as this can win games. Houston defeated a poor Chicago team in Week 1 but trailed for a large portion of that game and held a narrow three-point lead going to the fourth. In Week 2, the Texans caught a lethargic Chiefs team in their own barn and survived, 19-12. In Week 3, the Texans played their first road game and made into enemy territory once (!) the entire game in a 27-0 defeat against New England. Last week, Houston defeated the Titans 27-20 but so what. The Texans caught some teams at the right time and the only other reason they win games is because the rest of the division is an open sewer pit. You may recall that the Texans final game last year was a 30-0 loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs. So, just to recap, the last two winning teams that the Texans have played, they have been outscored 57-0 and things are not about to get any easier here.
Brock Osweiler is not and never will be an adequate NFL QB. Osweiler’s greatest achievement was beating the Pats at home in a game where Gronk nearly died and the refs handed out flags like free restaurant mints. Osweiler was then benched for a wet-armed Peyton Manning and had the nerve to pout about it when Manning—who is only one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history—kept the job all the way through to the Super Bowl. Osweiler’s QB rating last year was lower than Johnny Manziel’s. It is of our humble opinion that the Texans are one of the worst football teams in the NFL.
So, while the rotten Texans were scraping by the Bears and Titans of the world, the Vikes have defeated Green Bay, Carolina and the Giants, the latter two by 12 and 14 points respectively. The Vikings defense was good last year but they've hit an entirely higher level with no team scoring more than 16 points on them this year. If Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning couldn't solve the Vikings' defense, do you really see Brock Osweiler being the one to come into U.S. Bank Stadium and upend a team that is playing at such a high level? We don’t. The Vikes have a bye week on the other side of this game so there is nothing to focus on except winning this week and going into the bye with a 5-0 record. The Texans have benefited from a very favorable schedule so far and we get the benefit of that by spotting one score against them. Houston is making a habit of getting blown out by good teams and that’s likely what awaits them here as well.
LOS ANGELES +121 over Buffalo
4:05 PM EST. The Rams opened as a two-point choice here but steam and public money has been pouring in on the Bills since early Friday morning. Our first inclination was to take Buffalo too but we have since changed gears. The Bills stock is just a little too high and so are they after defeating both Arizona and New England. While we like the Bills and the direction they are going, this team is still not good enough to be favored on the road. Buffalo has just 23 road points in two road games this year. They are also an undisciplined outfit that is almost sure to go back to their old ways of taking untimely penalties after two very good efforts. The Bills are not to be trusted for three weeks in succession, especially after the emotional high of beating New England.
Quietly, the Rams are 3-1. They, too, beat Arizona only they did so in the desert. L.A. held the Cardinals to a mere 13 points and they also held the Seahawks to just three points.The Rams three-game winning streak only lends further proof that the horrible season opening shutout in San Francisco should be forgotten. This defense is responsible for the winning streak and so far has not allowed a touchdown at home. So why is it that the Vikings, Broncos and others get all the credit in the world for a great defense that carries them to victories but the Rams do not? The simple reason is that not many folks know a lot about the Rams. We don’t claim to be experts either but let’s not ignore what’s in front of us. After the first two weeks of the season, Buffalo was considered to be one of the worst teams in football. Two weeks later and they’re favored on the road? That cannot be and in what figures to be a low scoring game decided by turnovers, penalties and intangibles, we’re more than happy to take the team that figures to be more focused. That would be the 3-1 Rams.
All plays are to win 2 units, with the exception of the Rams,. which is a 2 unit bet.
1:00 PM EST. One of the most difficult things to do when betting on NFL football or any other sport for that matter is to come right back on a team that cost you money the previous game. We had the Ravens last week and were not impressed with their performance at home against the Ravens. That is not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. What we see here is a deflated number based on Baltimore’s not so impressive resume thus far combined with the Redskins winning two straight so let’s start with Washington’s two wins.
The Redskins fell behind the Giants 19-7 before rallying to win it late. The Giants had the ball last with a chance to win it but Eli Manning threw a pick and the ‘Skins held on. Last week, Washington defeated Cleveland. The Brownies had the lead the entire time through three quarters but turned the ball over three times in the second half to second to give the ‘Skins hope. Washington outscored Cleveland 14-0 in the final quarter but pretty it was not. We were high on the Redskins to start the year but after watching them for four weeks now, we are not impressed at all. This has been a dysfunctional franchise for years. It looked like they were going to break that pattern by they’re not. Dysfunctionality and a bad aroma surround them. The Redskins players are an undisciplined bunch that could easily be 0-4 right now. If you have watched the Giants and Browns play football, Washington’s narrow victories over that pair reveals even more of just how vulnerable and soft they really are. These Ravens have not had trouble refreshing, recharging and getting serious about winning after losing a game that was in their grasp and the Redskins are precisely the team that isn’t likely to provide much resistance. We were wrong about the Redskins and will look to take advantage of their misleading and rather troubling two-game winning streak.
DETROIT +3½ -106 over Philadelphia
1:00 PM EST. The last time we saw the Eagles, they destroyed the Steelers in Week 3 with a 34-3 home win. What makes that victory even more impressive is that the Steelers went on to absolutely crush the Chiefs the very next week. The Eagles are now 3-0 coming off an early bye week, and they have not won a game by fewer than 15 points. The Eagles have a rookie quarterback who has not thrown an interception. Through three games, all wins, Carson Wentz has thrown for 769 yards and five touchdowns. When Philadelphia traded away veteran quarterback Sam Bradford before the season began, it meant they were making a decision to throw Wentz into the fire and it has worked out beautifully…..so far.
After opening the season with a 39-35 victory over the Colts at Ford Field, the Lions have failed to find a victory since. They came close in Week 2’s one-point setback to the Titans, and even played decent in the 34-27 defeat at Lambeau. What was not expected, however, was the loss to a Bears team that some felt would go 0-16 this season. The squad now finds itself in the cellar, tied with Chicago for last place in the NFC North. Detroit had trouble generating offense in Chicago, gaining just 263 yards, 66 of which came on the ground. The Bears were missing their starting quarterback, running back and their star wide receiver was banged up. With a 1-3 record and failing to win last week against the pitiful Bears, the Lions are a hard sell this week at home to Philly and that's just the way we like it. This one doesn't pass the smell test, as action will likely be quite lopsided in favor of Philly but we forewarn you that the odds makers are not in the habit of giving away money.
The Eagles have a ton of market appeal right now while the Lions do not. However, Philly’s bye week was ill-timed, as it stops the momentum they were gaining. No team wants a bye while they are winning and perhaps a reality check awaits the Eagles here. Time will tell whether they are legit but the books are betting they are not quite this good. Odds makers made a bad call last week when they made Denver an easy looking 3-point favorite in Tampa Bay. The Broncs covered easily but don’t expect them to make the same mistake twice in two weeks. Wagering on NFL football is not about breaking down strengths and weaknesses and figuring out which team has an edge. If it were that simple, we would all be cashing in. It’s more about figuring out where vulnerable spots come from. It’s about buying low on undervalued teams and selling high on overvalued ones. Perhaps the Eagles are completely legit and go into Detroit and whack them. The more likely scenario however, is that Detroit plays a fine game and the Eagles get brought back down to earth. That’s how the odds makers see it and we like being on their side.
N.Y. Giants +7 -107 over GREEN BAY
8:30 PM EST. We must keep pounding home the notion that the greatest over/under-reactions are to the previous week’s prime time games. There are three of those every week starting with Thursday night and followed by Sunday and Monday night. Last Monday, we all watched Eli Manning play in fear in Minnesota, as the Giants got whacked by 14 points, 24-10. That score was flattering to the Giants. The point is that if you watched the G-Men play last Monday and most that bet on football did, it would be so difficult to come back on them here. This is now a great overreaction to the Giants horrible showing last week while the Packers are at Lambeau with two weeks to prepare.
We’re not unlike anyone else. We wagered on the Giants last week at Minnesota and lost. We have a very hard time coming back on them this week because they looked so bad. The New York Giants have lost all of their market appeal after that disgusting effort six days ago. That is precisely the right time to step back in so we’re going to ignore everything we witnessed last week because we always stress to never put too much emphasis on one game. Besides, Eli is not going to get the same heat from the Packers that he got from the Vikes. This is exactly the type of game that Eli Manning and the Giants usually win, or at the very least keep close. New York is 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games as underdogs of seven points or more. They nearly beat the Patriots and Panthers a year ago when they were heavy underdogs. Manning will not be playing this one with fear in his mind and now the Giants’ offense could have a breakout performance against one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses. This is one of those strong wagers that sees us jumping on when most of the market is jumping off.
MINNESOTA -6½ -106 over Houston
1:00 PM EST. The most incredible thing about this game is that the Texans are 3-1, which goes to prove that with a little luck and some good timing, even a team as bad as this can win games. Houston defeated a poor Chicago team in Week 1 but trailed for a large portion of that game and held a narrow three-point lead going to the fourth. In Week 2, the Texans caught a lethargic Chiefs team in their own barn and survived, 19-12. In Week 3, the Texans played their first road game and made into enemy territory once (!) the entire game in a 27-0 defeat against New England. Last week, Houston defeated the Titans 27-20 but so what. The Texans caught some teams at the right time and the only other reason they win games is because the rest of the division is an open sewer pit. You may recall that the Texans final game last year was a 30-0 loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs. So, just to recap, the last two winning teams that the Texans have played, they have been outscored 57-0 and things are not about to get any easier here.
Brock Osweiler is not and never will be an adequate NFL QB. Osweiler’s greatest achievement was beating the Pats at home in a game where Gronk nearly died and the refs handed out flags like free restaurant mints. Osweiler was then benched for a wet-armed Peyton Manning and had the nerve to pout about it when Manning—who is only one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history—kept the job all the way through to the Super Bowl. Osweiler’s QB rating last year was lower than Johnny Manziel’s. It is of our humble opinion that the Texans are one of the worst football teams in the NFL.
So, while the rotten Texans were scraping by the Bears and Titans of the world, the Vikes have defeated Green Bay, Carolina and the Giants, the latter two by 12 and 14 points respectively. The Vikings defense was good last year but they've hit an entirely higher level with no team scoring more than 16 points on them this year. If Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Eli Manning couldn't solve the Vikings' defense, do you really see Brock Osweiler being the one to come into U.S. Bank Stadium and upend a team that is playing at such a high level? We don’t. The Vikes have a bye week on the other side of this game so there is nothing to focus on except winning this week and going into the bye with a 5-0 record. The Texans have benefited from a very favorable schedule so far and we get the benefit of that by spotting one score against them. Houston is making a habit of getting blown out by good teams and that’s likely what awaits them here as well.
LOS ANGELES +121 over Buffalo
4:05 PM EST. The Rams opened as a two-point choice here but steam and public money has been pouring in on the Bills since early Friday morning. Our first inclination was to take Buffalo too but we have since changed gears. The Bills stock is just a little too high and so are they after defeating both Arizona and New England. While we like the Bills and the direction they are going, this team is still not good enough to be favored on the road. Buffalo has just 23 road points in two road games this year. They are also an undisciplined outfit that is almost sure to go back to their old ways of taking untimely penalties after two very good efforts. The Bills are not to be trusted for three weeks in succession, especially after the emotional high of beating New England.
Quietly, the Rams are 3-1. They, too, beat Arizona only they did so in the desert. L.A. held the Cardinals to a mere 13 points and they also held the Seahawks to just three points.The Rams three-game winning streak only lends further proof that the horrible season opening shutout in San Francisco should be forgotten. This defense is responsible for the winning streak and so far has not allowed a touchdown at home. So why is it that the Vikings, Broncos and others get all the credit in the world for a great defense that carries them to victories but the Rams do not? The simple reason is that not many folks know a lot about the Rams. We don’t claim to be experts either but let’s not ignore what’s in front of us. After the first two weeks of the season, Buffalo was considered to be one of the worst teams in football. Two weeks later and they’re favored on the road? That cannot be and in what figures to be a low scoring game decided by turnovers, penalties and intangibles, we’re more than happy to take the team that figures to be more focused. That would be the 3-1 Rams.
All plays are to win 2 units, with the exception of the Rams,. which is a 2 unit bet.
