This will be a long post and undoubtedly will be too long for some of you. The ones that take it all in could end up doing very well in this year's post season. It's worth the time and effort.
About a month ago Bushay sent me a link to a theory a blogger for the San Jose Sharks had that would explain why some teams do well in the post season and others fall short.
In short his theory was that there are two main components to team's success. First, Goaltending. Nothing new there, we all know how paramount it is in the playoffs and how a hot goalie can carry a team on his back.
The second aspect was 5 on 5 play. Certainly between the refs letting them play and the players being far more careful to not make the lazy/careless penalty, power plays are at a minimum in the playoffs.
So the impetus on how a team plays 5 on 5 becomes critical in the post season. It made sense to me. After all, in the world of sabermetrics they measure a baseball team's true value in their runs scored/runs allowed columns. Why not do the same in hockey when both teams don't have the handicap or advantage of playing with unequal participants?
I spent a day digesting this and did some homework. Here is what I found and my reply to Bushay........
I did a little research in the 5x5 goal differential and found it had some validity over the last two years when the playoffs pretty much went as planned. However the year out of the lockout didn’t follow the same form. But then that year had little that went according to plan. Here’s the top 3 for the last 3 years and their performance in the playoffs.
2007-08
Detroit +43
Colorado +22
Ottawa +15
Detroit wins cup
Colorado lost to Det. in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> round
Ottawa lost in 1<SUP>st</SUP> round to Pitt.
2006-07
Buffalo +61
Ottawa +51
Detroit +49
Buffalo lost in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round to Ottawa
Ottawa lost to Anaheim in cup finals
Detroit lost in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round to Anaheim
2005-06
Detroit +71
Ottawa +39
Dallas +31
Detroit lost in 1<SUP>st</SUP> round
Ottawa lost in round 2
Dallas lost in round 1
Notice in the last two years four out of the top 6 teams in 5 on 5 differential made it to the conference finals, 2 made it to the cup finals, and 1 won the cup.
So here is the final standings for this year's contenders for the cup.
Team-------------For-------Against-------Differential
Boston-----------171----------120-------------51
New Jersey-------154-----------123------------31
Detroit-----------176----------147-------------29
Vancouver--------153----------126------------27
Pittsburgh--------167-----------142------------25
Chicago-----------153----------130------------23
Columbus----------155----------134------------21
Washington--------155----------141------------14
Anaheim------------150----------137-----------13
San Jose-----------136----------125------------11
Calgary-------------167----------160------------7
Philadelphia---------153----------152------------1
Carolina------------138----------138------------0
Montreal-----------145----------151------------6
St Louis------------133----------142------------9
NY Rangers---------130----------145-----------15
There are a few conclusions we make with these numbers.
1) Boston is no fluke and should be a monster in the playoffs. They own goaltending, depth, and solid even strength performance
2) New Jersey also has all the tools needed.
3) Detroit is there with the even strength angle...but do they have the goaltending?
4) Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Columbus not only have good 5 on 5 play but own strength in goal.
5) Everybody else could be in trouble and likely will not win the cup.
Using these numbers to forecast this first round we should see an abundance of favorites cashing but perhaps two big upsets:
In the east no surprises
Boston win easily over Montreal
Washington over the Rangers
Pittsburgh convincingly over Philadelphia
and likewise for New Jersey over Carolina
In the west:
Vancouver over St Louis
Chicago over Calgary
no surprises there but how about....
Anaheim and San Jose clearly in a toss up situation. Neither has the dominant goaltender and their 5 on 5 differential margin is only 2 goals.
Lastly how about Columbus beating Detroit in the first round? Considering the difference in net and that Detroit is only 8 goals better in 5 on 5 play it certainly looks plausible. One thing is for sure. One team shouldn't be a 5/1 favorite on the other.
Conclusion: Take Columbus +400, (or better).
About a month ago Bushay sent me a link to a theory a blogger for the San Jose Sharks had that would explain why some teams do well in the post season and others fall short.
In short his theory was that there are two main components to team's success. First, Goaltending. Nothing new there, we all know how paramount it is in the playoffs and how a hot goalie can carry a team on his back.
The second aspect was 5 on 5 play. Certainly between the refs letting them play and the players being far more careful to not make the lazy/careless penalty, power plays are at a minimum in the playoffs.
So the impetus on how a team plays 5 on 5 becomes critical in the post season. It made sense to me. After all, in the world of sabermetrics they measure a baseball team's true value in their runs scored/runs allowed columns. Why not do the same in hockey when both teams don't have the handicap or advantage of playing with unequal participants?
I spent a day digesting this and did some homework. Here is what I found and my reply to Bushay........
I did a little research in the 5x5 goal differential and found it had some validity over the last two years when the playoffs pretty much went as planned. However the year out of the lockout didn’t follow the same form. But then that year had little that went according to plan. Here’s the top 3 for the last 3 years and their performance in the playoffs.
2007-08
Detroit +43
Colorado +22
Ottawa +15
Detroit wins cup
Colorado lost to Det. in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> round
Ottawa lost in 1<SUP>st</SUP> round to Pitt.
2006-07
Buffalo +61
Ottawa +51
Detroit +49
Buffalo lost in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round to Ottawa
Ottawa lost to Anaheim in cup finals
Detroit lost in 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round to Anaheim
2005-06
Detroit +71
Ottawa +39
Dallas +31
Detroit lost in 1<SUP>st</SUP> round
Ottawa lost in round 2
Dallas lost in round 1
Notice in the last two years four out of the top 6 teams in 5 on 5 differential made it to the conference finals, 2 made it to the cup finals, and 1 won the cup.
So here is the final standings for this year's contenders for the cup.
Team-------------For-------Against-------Differential
Boston-----------171----------120-------------51
New Jersey-------154-----------123------------31
Detroit-----------176----------147-------------29
Vancouver--------153----------126------------27
Pittsburgh--------167-----------142------------25
Chicago-----------153----------130------------23
Columbus----------155----------134------------21
Washington--------155----------141------------14
Anaheim------------150----------137-----------13
San Jose-----------136----------125------------11
Calgary-------------167----------160------------7
Philadelphia---------153----------152------------1
Carolina------------138----------138------------0
Montreal-----------145----------151------------6
St Louis------------133----------142------------9
NY Rangers---------130----------145-----------15
There are a few conclusions we make with these numbers.
1) Boston is no fluke and should be a monster in the playoffs. They own goaltending, depth, and solid even strength performance
2) New Jersey also has all the tools needed.
3) Detroit is there with the even strength angle...but do they have the goaltending?
4) Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Columbus not only have good 5 on 5 play but own strength in goal.
5) Everybody else could be in trouble and likely will not win the cup.
Using these numbers to forecast this first round we should see an abundance of favorites cashing but perhaps two big upsets:
In the east no surprises
Boston win easily over Montreal
Washington over the Rangers
Pittsburgh convincingly over Philadelphia
and likewise for New Jersey over Carolina
In the west:
Vancouver over St Louis
Chicago over Calgary
no surprises there but how about....
Anaheim and San Jose clearly in a toss up situation. Neither has the dominant goaltender and their 5 on 5 differential margin is only 2 goals.
Lastly how about Columbus beating Detroit in the first round? Considering the difference in net and that Detroit is only 8 goals better in 5 on 5 play it certainly looks plausible. One thing is for sure. One team shouldn't be a 5/1 favorite on the other.
Conclusion: Take Columbus +400, (or better).
