5* jakes college plays...

[fivestarjake]

first of all gl to you guys this year and many thanks to the outstanding info over the summer. there was good discussions all around. although there is still a few weeks left i did put in a play today @ 5dimes...

5* TEXAS AM -13' over new mexico

i've been lobbying this game all summer. there is just too many advantages i see for AM this game vs what i see as a low #. lobo's are drastically changing their offense and i just don't see them pulling it off with this team. not only are they grossly inexperienced but they also lost rb ferguson who was such a huge part of the offense. AM will be in year 2 of sherman's schemes and should show better improvement especially in these non BCS non conf games. although their rushing #'s were poor last year i like the rb's especially if frosh rb michael emerges. qb johnson had a respectful 60% completion rate and a 21-10 ratio. everyone bashes their defense but i see nice talent especially the lb's and secondary. last year these big 12 offenses were ridiculous in their #'s...NEW MEXICO is no where's near ANY of those offenses. they are really going to struggle imo. i've been trying for a few days now since the lines come out to offer a new mexico cover. there just isn't any. AM will have full focus here as they get a bye then only utah st. so i can definitely see sherman and the boys going full throttle here especially after such a poor season. i could go on and on about this on why i feel AM covers this but we will see. i believe though i'm correct here and feel the aggies can double this spread.

TEXAS AM 45 new mexico 14

theres alot of opening spreads i like but i'm going to be real select and do more observation with some teams before i wager my money on them.

 

[GoSooners]

Jake...I like the play...Although I don't think Texas A&M is going to be a very good team this season, I do think they are at least a couple TD's better than New Mexico. Who is an even bigger mess right now. BOL :toast:

 

[fivestarjake]

i was hoping you would chime in sooners. they do have alot of ground to make up within their division. they were like -150 ypg but those offenses of oklahoma,texas,ok st. and tech were ridiculous last year within the big 12 south and look to be just as nasty again. but it looks like AM will start out 3-0 before the schedule gets rough. looking forward to your plays this year.:toast:

also it is funny that the lobos actually outgained the aggies by 135 and if it wasn't for those turnovers AM loses that game. if rocky long was still coaching and schemes weren't being changed this game would be less inviting(even with their inexperience this year)

 

[GoSooners]

Jake...This is just junk that I'm hearing on the internet, so I'm not sure how much truth there is to it. But I've heard that Sherman is trying to run the Aggies like an NFL team (like when he was HC at Green Bay) and some of the fans who claim to be close to the team say he's running it into the ground. Lack of communication with players etc. and they're in for a long season.. Like I said, this is internet talk. And I'm going to go to more than one source to see if there is any validity to it. Even if there is a little bit of truth to this rumor, i still think A&M can handle NM pretty easy. Plus this spread offense that New Mexico is going to is nothing new. The Aggies have faced much better spreads in the Big 12 South.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Good luck jake and im also on a&m.

the key advantage for am is their OL vs nmex OL.

 

[MajorGCG]

Boosters are already revolting against Sherman. If he fails this season several I've talked to say that Tuberville is in their sights...assuming he's still available. Sherman will get a third year and then get the boot. Just what I've heard.

 

[fivestarjake]

well i'm sure everyone will be buddy buddy the 1st 3 games. thats what happens when you win football games but it will be very interesting to see what happens if AM starts losing when the schedule toughens up vs. arkansas. lose there then lose to okie st. and we could see some fruition to this situation. i also believe AM will get smacked around in big 12 play regardless of internal rumblings. i already have arkansas written down as a possible play as they will already have played bama and georgia and this will be a big step up in competition for AM after their 3 softies.

 

[FairWarning]

Jake...This is just junk that I'm hearing on the internet, so I'm not sure how much truth there is to it. But I've heard that Sherman is trying to run the Aggies like an NFL team (like when he was HC at Green Bay) and some of the fans who claim to be close to the team say he's running it into the ground. Lack of communication with players etc. and they're in for a long season.. Like I said, this is internet talk. And I'm going to go to more than one source to see if there is any validity to it. Even if there is a little bit of truth to this rumor, i still think A&M can handle NM pretty easy. Plus this spread offense that New Mexico is going to is nothing new. The Aggies have faced much better spreads in the Big 12 South.

Sounds like Charlie Weis.

 

[VENUSandTHECOWBOY]

Gl

 

[fivestarjake]

5* NOTRE DAME -14 over nevada...

one team that i feel is undervalued this year is notre dame even though they are a "public" team. everyone is talking about how "soft" their schedule is. guess what?? penn st. schedule is just as soft. yet pollsters are going to tell me that an inexperienced lions team is top 10 material but a talented notre dame team isn't??? let me tell ya'll something. not only do i think notre dame can beat penn st. i believe they would be favored. now this isn't about penn st vs notre dame. i was explaining why i feel the irish are undervalued. everyone loves to see this team falter. you've had your fun blasting this team the last 2 years. imo this team gets a possible bcs berth(or at least a jan 1st game). they are fresh off their 1st bowl win in like 100 years and they have what is now EXPERIENCED talent up and down the roster. the irish could have won 10 games last year if not for 3 dd leads they gave up. everyone who has done their homework should already see the mismatches in this game(namely nd off line and special teams). well imo they are mismatches that are enough to more than cover the "light" 14. does nevada offer backdoor potential? yes they do "IF" the spread was higher. i see notre dame going off then giving up the garbage late but still cover comfortably.

NOTRE DAME 49 nevada 27

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I believe that Texas A&M is simply too big of a risk to lay 14, which is the Vegas linenow. You can still get 13.5 offshore. I hae little doubt that A&M has the talent, but these desturbing reports out of College Station are not good. The offensive line was not good last year. It must improve drastically. The defense is very unsettled, and not very good either. There is very little, if any chance that A&M can win more than 5 games. To me, they are very much like Auburn. Wait and see.

 

[russ1945]

I believe that Texas A&M is simply too big of a risk to lay 14, which is the Vegas linenow. You can still get 13.5 offshore. I hae little doubt that A&M has the talent, but these desturbing reports out of College Station are not good. The offensive line was not good last year. It must improve drastically. The defense is very unsettled, and not very good either. There is very little, if any chance that A&M can win more than 5 games. To me, they are very much like Auburn. Wait and see.

BQH: You also have to realize that you are betting against New Mexico.
New HC (with no HC experience), new OC (new formation, new system and no proven QB to run it), and a new DC (going away from Long's notorious 3-3-5 to the 4-3), and only 3 starters back on D period.I think Longs scheme kept NM in a lot of games that guys like this do not yet (and maybe never will ) proven they can do. So we have missed alignments and missed assignments just waiting to happen and a big TAM home crowd to let them know about it if and when they do. When you throw the christians to the lions it sometimes does not matter how big or healthy the lions are, in this case they are middle of the road but still carnivors. T A & M beat them at their house LY and the T A & M offense is farther along than NM's. I may never betT A & M again all year but they are on my first 5 teamer of the year.

 

[fivestarjake]

russ is correct. it is more of a play against new mexico. also the notre dame play is more of the linesmakers giving too much credit to nevada imo. notre dame hasnt done much the last few years so the 14 would have you believe it is a steep line. imo notre dame is undervalued early. we will see. i've have read up on and gathered as much info just like the next guy on here. just my interpretation of certain teams/lines will differ from others. i wish you guys gl this year.

 

[silver7]

The Play I Really Like In The ND Game Is

total. 57-, to me this is a dead over play. Just hope Pack can keep up their end. 42+ vs 24+. My fav. total so far. I played A&M @ 13 not too lg $$. BOL to all you guys. Only 2 more Sat. w/o foots!!!!@)

 

[silver7]

ND Total Now

60 @ Greek!!

 

[fivestarjake]

imo i don't think you can go wrong with either one silver. but me personally i don't like taking sides and totals on the same game. the total is going to be a matter of how much nevada helps out. i feel in the spread the oddsmakers are giving too much credit towards nevada. like i said above notre dame will score its just a matter if nevada can keep some kind of pace to get it over. which i think they can especially if they take advantage of the late garbage point end of it. but i also feel if they do get those garbage points it still won't cover the number. everyone will have their own different view of this game so we will just have to wait for sept 5th.

 

[fivestarjake]

5* MINNESOTA -6'(-115) over syracuse...

i can't resist it. the information laid before me tells me minny is a big 10 contender. if brewster is going to a more run based offense then he must like what he see's in that offensive line. i agree. the minny line looks very good with great size. which should be able to dominate line of scrimmage vs cuse. the weapons on the outside are as good as any in the big 10 and better than anything cuse is going to see this year imo. the defense looks very good all around(on paper anyway). i feel the vegas line is viewing this as an ordinary middle of the pack big 10 team. i disagree. minny has also had added practices due to the bowl season. something syracuse seems far from still. i myself would love to have seen minny go spread on the carpet as i believe cuse is way outclassed. but i also see cuse outclassed in the trenches vs. the minny off line. so maybe running the ball isn't a bad idea. if minny was running the spread i would have felt the margin of victory would be greater and feel the gophers could put 50+ up here. but even with the more "controlling the clock" offense i still like minny to dominate this game.

MINNESOTA 38 syracuse 14


note...this line was available at -7 +100 a few day ago at 5dimes. while it certainly might go back to that i'm not taking any chances. i don't want the chance that this line suddenly shoots up on me. i'll take my chances with a spread under a td.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

My problem with A&M is that they are so flakey. Their HC is on the hot seat and not exactly loved by his players. A&M should easily cover this game, but I have reservations about putting money on teams that is 1-8 in their first lined games in the past 9 years, and casn be pushed by theArmy and home, and lose to Arkansas State at home. On paper, this looks easy, but that is whythey play the games.

Minny was going to be a pick, but we backed off because of twonthings. First, their offense is very one dememtional. Run, run, run. If, by some freak,they fall behind, they are going to be hard pressed to catch up. Second is the fact that they are playing a nobody, and open their brand new stadium the following week. Again, we have a situation where on paper, this is no contest, but throw in the intangables and I think that their are better plays.

 

[fivestarjake]

your right big daddy. thats why they play the games. it always looks easy then you end up scratching your head at the end thinking "how the fuck did that team not cover".

like i said above if there are internal rumblings with AM i don't think we start seeing it until after the schedule(and winning) gets harder starting with arkansas. when you win everybody is buddy buddy and everything is alright. but its still a play mainly against new mexico. as with minnesota i think i overlooked a bit what could be a very strong off line. its the only reason in my mind brewster is going to pound the ball instead of airing it out. but minny does have great outlets outside if need be. i'm sure cuse will give a spirited effort for marrone but imo lack the depth to keep this under the #. we'll see in a few weeks just how far off i am from my summertime "studies"

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Well, I wish you luck. No one wants to start the season off on the wrong note. Then all kinds of nasty things canset into your mind, no matter how hard to try to block them out.

Minny should be a lock, but I hope that they have their mind on Syracuse, and not the gala grand opening of their staduim the next week against the Air Force. I really want Minny to crush Syracuse, because the Air Force may be a play for us at Minny the following week, and we want all the points we can get. 7.5 would be fantastic.