5.8%

[Cantpickem]

Just thought you would like to know that a team fav by 10pts has a 5.8% chance of covering. This stat was compiled over the past 20 NFL seasons.
Should the line go to 10.5 then you have a 3.28% of covering.

GL
For your reference

• 0 points 0.20%
• 1 point 4.27%
• 2 pts 3.74%
• 3 pts 15.38%
• 4 pts 5.58%
• 5 pts 3.15%
• 6 pts 5.76%
• 7 pts 8.04%
• 8 pts 2.56%
• 9 pts 1.83%
• 10 pts 5.80%
• 11 pts 3.28%
• 12 pts 1.63%
• 13 pts 3.13%
• 14 pts 4.66%
• 15 pts 1.63%
• 16 pts 2.22%
• 17 pts 3.85%
• 18 pts 2.10%
• 19 pts 1.80%
• 20 pts 2.62%
• 21 pts 2.62%
• 22 pts 0.83%
• 23 pts 1.20%
• 24 pts 2.12%
• 25 pts 0.92%
• 26 pts 0.65%
• 27 pts 1.67%
• 28 pts 1.49%
• 29 pts 0.31%
• 30 pts 0.59%
• 31 pts 1.18%
• 32 pts 0.55%
• 33 pts 0.26%
• 34 pts 0.63%
• 35 pts 0.57%

 

[i'mshockedshocked]

that's not what the data means. the data is showing what % of games are decided by each spread. so 5.8% of games are decided by 10 pts, not 5.8% of teams favored by 10 pts cover

 

[Aloha_4_Da_Winna]

So by the chart above, a team favored by 1 point only has a 4.27% chance of winning?

Sorry, i am confused...

 

[Cantpickem]

my bad. sorry for misunderstanding.

 

[Cantpickem]

Try this one
[h=2]Breaking Down NFL Margins of Victory Since 2002[/h] Since 2002, the most common margin of victory in the NFL has been 3 points with 418 games out of 2,668 games. This is equivalent to 15.67% of games finishing with a 3 point difference between the winner and loser at the end of the game.
Below, we take a look at the frequency of margins of victories across all 2,668 games to find some interesting trends:

Margin of Victory	# of Games	% of Games
1	92	3.45%
2	92	3.45%
3	418	15.67%
4	138	5.17%
5	79	2.96%
6	148	5.55%
7	258	9.67%
8	83	3.11%
9	40	1.50%
10	161	6.03%
11	70	2.62%
12	40	1.50%
13	87	3.26%
14	125	4.69%
15	37	1.39%
16	42	1.57%
17	96	3.60%
18	63	2.36%
19	30	1.12%
20	61	2.29%
21	83	3.11%
22	26	0.97%
23	24	0.90%
24	65	2.44%
25	31	1.16%
26	15	0.56%
27	48	1.80%
28	50	1.87%
29	14	0.52%
30	14	0.52%
31	38	1.42%
32	11	0.41%
33	6	0.22%
34	16	0.60%
35	13	0.49%
36	4	0.15%
37	8	0.30%
38	16	0.60%
39	2	0.07%
40	2	0.07%
41	6	0.22%
42	3	0.11%
43	0	0.00%
44	1	0.04%
45	6	0.22%
46	2	0.07%
47	0	0.00%
48	0	0.00%
49	2	0.07%
50	0	0.00%
51	0	0.00%
52	0	0.00%
53	0	0.00%
54	0	0.00%
55	1	0.04%
56	0	0.00%
57	0	0.00%
58	0	0.00%
59	1	0.04%

Notes

• The top three most common margins of victory are 3 points (15.67%), 7 points (9.67%) and 10 points (6.03%). This is somewhat unsurprising as 3 and 7 are the points for field goals and touchdowns.

• The largest margin of victory in the NFL since 2002 was 59 points, which occurred October 18, 2009 when the New England Patriots beat the Tennessee Titans 59-0.

• 50.52% of games end in a single digit margin of victory (9 or less points).

• 63.96% of games end in a margin of victory of under two touchdowns (13 or less points).

• The lowest margin of victory to have not occurred since 2002 is 43 points. Other margins of victory to not have occurred include 47, 48, 50-54, 56-58 and every margin above 59.

 

[wizardofodd]

Same breakdown, says how many games were decided by how many points since 2002

so since 2002, 92 games were decided by 1 point

 

[Cantpickem]

Same breakdown, says how many games were decided by how many points since 2002

so since 2002, 92 games were decided by 1 point

still boils down to
The top three most common margins of victory are 3 points (15.67%), 7 points (9.67%) and 10 points (6.03%). This is somewhat unsurprising as 3 and 7 are the points for field goals and touchdowns.

Thats 6.03% if you bet the fav at 10

 

[Kaveman]

Once a spread hits double digits, I either pass or take the points. Long term, they don't cover more often than not.

 

[Cantpickem]

Once a spread hits double digits, I either pass or take the points. Long term, they don't cover more often than not.

agree. that was my point; however it wasn't received very well. Did you pass tonight or take Balt?
seeing the line fall to 9/9.5

 

[MSUSpartans]

still boils down to
The top three most common margins of victory are 3 points (15.67%), 7 points (9.67%) and 10 points (6.03%). This is somewhat unsurprising as 3 and 7 are the points for field goals and touchdowns.

Thats 6.03% if you bet the fav at 10

You would have to add up all of the percentages for the margins of victory from 10 to 59 to see how many times teams win by 10 OR more, since someone that wins by 15 or 30 still covers the spread of 10

 

[Cantpickem]

You would have to add up all of the percentages for the margins of victory from 10 to 59 to see how many times teams win by 10 OR more, since someone that wins by 15 or 30 still covers the spread of 10

very true. thanks

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

agree. that was my point; however it wasn't received very well.

Hmmmmmmmm. Poor delivery of message, then blames the reception.

 

[Jibba]

That's not true. Double digit favorites covered 43.7% between 1978 and 2012. The number drops to 42% from 2002 to 2012, and to 41% from 2008 to 2012.

The Cardinals covered 2 out of 8 double digit spreads between 1978 and 2012, but covered 2 out of 4 from 2008 to 2012. Gives you an idea how rarely they were big favorites in the past.

And at the end of the day, these stats don't say a whole lot about how this particular game will play out.

 

[Jibba]

You may be surprised which teams have fared the best historically against double digit spreads. Not at all surprising is the fact that the 49ers (98) and Cowboys (87) were favored the most by double digits from 1978 to 2012. The Steelers (66), Patriots (54), and Rams (49) round out the top 5.

 

[seer]

surprised to see there are that many gms that land on the number 5. i would have thought less than 2% or even less than 1%

 

[Kaveman]

agree. that was my point; however it wasn't received very well. Did you pass tonight or take Balt?
seeing the line fall to 9/9.5

Passed. I'm not convinced Balt is as bad as their record, but still can't trust them.

 

[chonce]

That 5.8 percent number would be closer to the likelyhood of a push than a cover -- all of that said, I took the point tonight.