44-1 last three series

[Michelangelo 3,275]

This is a three game chase system. The third bet in the chase can get pretty steep so if ya don't have big ballinis stop readin' right now.

44-1

Those are the SERIES RESULTS for the last three series, beginning on 8/13, and ending on 8/23. It's a limited sample. Please keep that in mind.

The chase is over on the first winning bet of the series.

Bets are in multiples of 1, 2, and 4 for games 1, 2, and 3 respectively.

Here goes nuttin'.

Game 1s for series beginning on 8/24.

TBy +125
Bos -210
Cle -110
Bal +185
Det +120
Oak +108

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Series 1

In the Bank

TBy +125
Bos +100
Cle +100
Det +120

Game 2s tonight 8/25

Bal +143 (200/286)
Oak-103 (206/200)

Game 1 starts

Phi -172
NYY -195
Atl -260
Fla -200
Cin +125
Cub -240
Hou +156
LAD -114
SFo -115

Hold your cap. This is a fast bumpy ride.

 

[NumberFreak 1,855]

Boy, you're not messing around, huh? Heckuva nice start bro.

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Yea Bruce, the "no messin' around" approach this time of year can cause trouble. I may need to add one more filter.

The Cubs are forcing me into an "exectutive decision". I'm gonna stop the Cub chase after one game. If they lose tonight I may resume tomorrow night if I think the price fair. The Cubs are 5-13 over their last 18. They are not, in my humble opinion, worth risking $660 (Bodog price) on tonight. Maybe recent record should be an additional filter anyway. Had it been last night they would not have been a play.

"Big favorites in April are by reputation. In September by desperation." That's how my friend Sportspicks put it. I concur. Maybe this is the precise wrong time to be experimenting with this three game chase. Most of the time I'm gonna be on those bloated favs as they are usually the team going into any series most likely to win at least one game in that series. And last night wasn't an aberration. The favs will get bigger and more stupid as we turn the corner and head down the stretch in September. After this series is complete It's likely I'll eliminate "contenders" from the chase from hereon out unless playing each other. Their prices going forward will simply be inappropriate to a three game chase system.

Having gotten that out of the way, was last night the squirmiest night of Baseball this year or what? Seven one run games. Four more two run games. Thirteen lead changes from the eighth inning on. Four extra inning games. And the Yanks and Zona almost pulled off improbable ninth inning tying rallies. Whew. Glad those seatsquirmers are in the rear view mirror.

The good thing for us is that the accounting doesn't get done 'till the Series is complete. Soooo....


///


Series 1

Add to the bank:

Fla +100
Cin +125
SFo +100

Game 3s

Bal +145 (400/580)
Oak -102 (408/400)

Game 2s

Phi 348/200
NYY 380/200
Atl 470/200
Hou 200/270
LAD 272/200

Cubs (either a $ 240 loss for the series or I may resume the chase tomorrow if the Cubbies lose tonight)

GL

 

[CharlieBX 0]

Good luck buddy! Cash those and keep it going!

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Thank you Charlie. Good luck to you.

 

[NumberFreak 1,855]

Absolutely Jim, the Cubs are not worthy of any high prices. They've slacked all year...although finally woke up tonight. What's your stance on using run lines to soften the blow so you can play them all? I always seem to get burned by run lines at an above average rate and lose alot of wins.

From my point of view, if you can get a high single game win percentage, you can afford to use run lines in a 3-game chase. Or, in other words, if it would be successful in a 2-game straight chase, then a 3-game RL would be comparable. Or maybe a -1 RL?

What say you?

 

[russwlms 0]

Absolutely Jim, the Cubs are not worthy of any high prices. They've slacked all year...although finally woke up tonight. What's your stance on using run lines to soften the blow so you can play them all? I always seem to get burned by run lines at an above average rate and lose alot of wins.

From my point of view, if you can get a high single game win percentage, you can afford to use run lines in a 3-game chase. Or, in other words, if it would be successful in a 2-game straight chase, then a 3-game RL would be comparable. Or maybe a -1 RL?

What say you?

Good question~

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Bruce, I answered a similar question elsewhere. Forgive the copy and paste but I just woke up and saw this. Will be up for work in a little over two hours so this will have to do for now.

The thing I will speak to directly is the "high single game win percentage" thing. This particular three game chase was not designed with "high percentage single games" in mind. But rather a high percentage hit rate in any three game series. There is a vast difference. Heck you will see me taking the side of some pretty crumby teams. But they hit. The dogs in the study were 21-20, including winning dogs of +185, +190, +250, and +255. Several more in the +150 category like Balty tonight. The team in the one three game chase that lost was favored in all three games, -124, -125, -165.

That leads to the runline answer I'm about to cut and paste to save time. There is some irrelevant stuff here. Please forgive.

You saw what I did with the two game runline chase Andrew. Inconclusive results. I expected better.

But as often happens when I do isolations on paper my eyes catch other patterns, which is how I got to this 3 game chase thingy.

Now I can't speak for the biggest fav runline thing you referred to but I can tell you that of the 45 chases I had in my three series chase study period, 28 of 44 wins to end the chase were by favorites. Those 28 were 21-7 to the runline. Sounds like the runline should be the way to go until you think a bit. I can't tell you if continuing the chase for those 7 losers would have eventuated in chase wins or not. Maybe I can figure it out at some point but my guess is that the number of chases lost would grow to the point that there would be a severe cut in the profits garnered in the 44-1 ML chase record. So in eliminating game night agita you would actually be extending your risk in this scenario rather than reducing it by using the runline. Comprende?

Back to bed.

 

[crazy 0]

Atlanta lost 260 the first night. Therefore you would have needed 756 to win 360 today.....

and since they lost today its looking like

$3013 to win 1116 for tomorrow?

 

[NumberFreak 1,855]

This is a unique system because you have big faves and big dogs. I understand about the 7 extra losses on the RL. I was thinking using the RL for big faves only. Maybe you can check your study and see how many of those 28 faves were higher than, say, -140 or -150, or whatever limit you set. Should cut the 7 RL losses down a few and hopefully the RL savings on the losses would now be worth it. Hence, if you were willing to lay -240 on the Cubs in Game 1, you could have laid a little over -300 on the first TWO run lines and gained an extra $340 (the $240 loss back from the Cubs plus the $100 net tonight). I know you risk the chance of winning a game by 1 run and having to continue the chase, but big faves should yield that "high single game win percentage" I was talking about which may work well in a 3-game RL. Then again, with the mixing and matching of both faves and dogs, this might mess things up. Just bouncing ideas around.

If you want to send me the game log (just teams and MLs) from the 44-1 I'd be willing to do some RL analysis for you. Might not yield anything worthwhile but ya never know. Or, I could just start at the 11-1 you've got here. Either way, nice start. Would you have the ballinis to chase ATL? I'd be shocked if they were swept at home by SD but we've all seen it.

 

[crazy 0]

there is 15 games here??...and at my count its 12-1 with 2 games pending in a game 3 tomorrow

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Sorry guys, runnin' late. You know the Game 3s anyway.

Weds 8/27

Hou +265 400/1060
Atl -260 1040/400

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Bruce, I'll get to ya as soon as I can. Busy with real world stuff.

Crazy, Read my betting formula again. Your numbers are off on the Atl game tonight.

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Bruce, Check your PM.

 

[BoutMyMoney 2,780]

michelangelo, even if ATL wins tonight, arent you still down quite a bit from the series?

 

[ComptrBob 0]

Crazy, Read my betting formula again. Your numbers are off on the Atl game tonight.

With this betting system, it is clear that a series may end with a win, yet lose money.

For example, the Atlanta series is guaranteed to be a loser, no matter what the result tonight. You are down -260 plus -470 = -730 in the first two games. If Atl wins game 3, you are down -330, if they lose, you are down -1770.

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

Glad to know we have some math geniuses here.

I designed the betting method to maximize profits on dogs and minimize losses on favorites.

Yes, even if Atlanta wins tonight, I will accept a loss on that series. But in so doing I will be limiting my exposure.

In the original 44-1 Series study there were 27 individual series started by favorites as Atlanta started this three game chase here. 17 of them won in Game 1. 8 of them won in Game 2. 1 of them won in Game 3. And the one Series loss in the study was also started by a favorite (and continued to be a favorite for all three games as Atlanta has done here).

Maybe now you can see why I set the betting formula I did.

If you would like to make a cogent argument against it I am all ears.

 

[BoutMyMoney 2,780]

did i ever accuse you of doing anything wrong? i just wanted to make sure if i was understanding it correctly.. so it ATL loses tonight, you lose 2something, 4something and 1040(tonight)..thats just under 1700.. i would assume it wipes almost all you profit from those 17 that won on game A..

 

[Michelangelo 3,275]

That is correct 'Bout the Money.

My post was not directed at you but at the guy who put "guaranteed to be a loser" in boldface.

Yes, I am guaranteed to be a loser in the Atlanta series after tonight. The formula I clearly defined in my original post makes that clear with some simple math. I don't expect to win all series bets. But I do hope to make a profit on most Series groupings.

My explanation for accepting a loss in a series such as we have encountered here with Atlanta should make sense to you. I hope.

As I stated in a previous post I will be reviewing the wisdom of playing large favs in this chase approach. I've only discovered this concept recently. After tonight I will have a 60 game sampling. There is still a long way to go before I determine what the final "method" will look like exactly.

Have patience. I think we can succeed very profitably if the first 60 games are a fair indicator.