| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 34 | 42 | 0.00 | +6.14 |
| Season to Date | 186 | 266 | 0.00 | -43.58 |
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2 plays are for 2 units, the other two, Philly and Jays/Angels over is to win 2
Philadelphia -102 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. If you make one wager today, this should be it because the value on Philadelphia to defeat the Chicago is tremendous. Jerad Eickhoff was hit hard in July, at least on the surface (4.50 ERA). But a deeper look reveals a collection of skills that continue to be rock solid, which includes 7.3 K’s/9, 1.8 BB’s/9, 42% grounders. A low and unfortunate 61% strand rate was the main reason for his ERA spike. Over his last 30 innings, Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 5/25. Overall he has a BB/K split 35/128 in 150 frames. Despite losing last night, the Phillies are simply the more enthusiastic squad with a huge starting pitching edge here.
Suffice to say, it’s been an up-and-down season for James Shields. After being traded by the Padres in early June, Shields posted a hideous 11.07 ERA in his first five starts for the White Sox. But in July, it looked like "Big Game James" was back, with a 1.78 ERA in his next five starts. It would be best not to question him about his 17.36 ERA in August though, as we keep cashing tickets by fading him and we’re not about to stop now. Shields’ is a mess. He started walking more batters last year and he’s not been able to right that ship. It’s not helping that he’s falling behind in the count frequently. Shields’ isn’t generating as many swinging strikes as usual, and that’s crushed his K-rate. While he was able to deal with his drop in velocity last year, that’s not been the case in 2016. His fly-ball rate has crept up too and with a big hr/f, it’s not surprising he leads the majors in HRs allowed. The move from Safeco (-9% RH HR) to U.S. Cellular (+14% RH HR) just makes it worse. Shields’ has $42 million left on his contract for the next two years, so he’ll be pitching somewhere. That’s sweet because when he is pitching, he is fade material every time he steps on the mound and that includes this start in late August.
TAMPA BAY +137 over Boston
7:05 PM EST. We have no idea what the result of this game will be but what we do know, 100% for sure is that you are paying a massive premium to bet on Boston here with the overpriced and overvalued Rick Porcello throwing. With 17 wins and just three losses, Rick Porcello has been a boon for those who have backed him this year. Despite a blue-chip pedigree and decent skills, current production levels are not sustainable for Porcello for several reasons. Porcello lacks the premium velocity (90 MPH) and dominant off-speed pitch that most top-of-the rotation guys utilize to induce swinging strikes, rack-up strikeouts, limit base runners and strand those who do manage to get aboard. His 2016 swinging strike rate of 8% is more indicative of his 2012 & 2014 K-rate levels than the current 7.5 rate. Porcello’s loss of groundball percent is due to the decreased effectiveness of his sinker (4-year sinker GB% trend: 65%, 58%, 56%, 45%). And it's no surprise that home runs have become more of a problem the last two years. On pace to challenge for 20 wins, 170+ Ks, with a 3.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, this may very well end up being a career year for Porcello. However, the sub-indicators hint that his skills are worse now than in 2012 when he pitched to a 4.59 ERA. Porcello has outstanding control but he also puts the ball in play and starters that do that are usually .500 pitchers with ERA’s in the 4.50 range. Porcello plays for a great offense and that allows him to relax but there are blowups in that average skill set of his.
Surging indicators make Matt Andriese very worthy of backing here. Andriese’s K-rate level in the minors in 2015 (9.6) and 2016 (11.5) hints at a recently revved up arsenal and this theory is further supported by his 2016 MLB swinging strike rate of 13%, which, if maintained, could result in a K-rate better than 8.0 going forward. His excellent control level is fully supported by control sub-indicators, as Andriese has pounded the strike zone (Ball%) and gotten ahead early in the count (first-pitch strike rate) this year. He induces grounders with three separate pitches: change-up (61%), cutter (56%), and curve (53%). Andriese’s oppBA of .240 over 91 innings is solid. He’s only walking one batter every four frames. Yeah, Boston is Boston and they can win here for sure but we are after value plays and not inflated prices. That applies here.
L.A. Angels/TORONTO over 8½ -107
7:10 PM EST. The Rogers Center is one of the more hitter friendly parks in the majors and we find a very beatable number here with Marco Estrada going up against Matt Shoemaker. If the Angels weren’t losing 15 out of every 16 games, we would absolutely be playing them here because Marco Estrada’s clock struck midnight two games ago. Estrada has been tagged for four jacks over his past two games. In his last start, he gave up three jacks in four innings. Two starts ago, Estrada walked four batters in five innings in a 9-2 loss to the Rays. Estrada has been riding a wave of good fortune for almost two years without a secret sauce. He throws 87 MPH heat. Only Jered Weaver’s velocity is lower. He is constantly behind in the count with a weak 51% first-pitch strike rate over his last 10 starts. Marco Estrada’s best skills include balls being hit to the warning track and line drives right in the glove of somebody. This is truly a case of “career-best performance with career-worst skills”. Nearly half his metrics are in steady decline. There's a dangerous level of disconnect between 2016 ROI and xERA and someone's gonna (over) pay the price. Don't let it be you.
The Angels should be an automatic play here against Estrada but the problem is that their bullpen is garbage and the Jays could score 9 times. Matt Shoemaker might get whacked too. Shoemaker has watched his skills tail off after his electric May and June. He has been one of the game's best starters when pitching at home (3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), and those marks have been backed by full skill support. Both his stats (5.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) and skills tail off quite a bit when he pitches on the road and things appear to be getting worse too. Shoemaker has just 16 K’s over his last 33 innings. His 39%/24%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is screaming for trouble at this venue. Shoemaker is 3-9 on the road and he also has to fight his mind when pitching in Toronto. In two appearances here last season, Shoemaker was tagged for three bombs, 13 hits, 10 runs and a .317 oppBA in just 9.2 innings. This is a low number based on two pitchers with very misleading surface stats.
N.Y. Mets +107 over ST. LOUIS
8:15 PM EST. Jacob deGrom is a true ace in every sense of the word. deGrom has a BB/K split of 30/134 in 138 innings. He was hit hard in his last start but so what, as nobody is immune to the occasional blowup. At the end of the day, when we can get deGrom plus a tag, we are usually going to grab it and that is certainly the case here.
Carlos Martinez entered 2016 with his stock high. His 3.01 ERA at age 23 in 2015 was impressive, but he was shut down with a shoulder strain late in the season. Martinez has managed to stay healthy in 2016 with another sub-3.25 ERA but a check under the hood reveals things aren’t as rosy as they appear. A drop in Ks may soon hurt Martinez. Martinez's greatest asset is an elite groundball rate. His sinker (69% GB%; 26% usage) and change-up (70%; 18%) should keep the ball in the yard and ERA in check. The drop in Ks is concerning, however, as his swing and miss stuff continues to head south. Martinez's xERA is over a half-run higher than his surface ERA, which typically indicates a correction is looming—this could happen if his hit rate tends back towards league average. With two years of impressive results this early in his career, Martinez might look like a premier investment on the surface. But the drop in K’s when paired with mediocre control quickly makes this look like an average skill set. Martinez's elite groundball rate and overall record may make him an attractive bet at home but there are some major bumps in the road ahead.
