| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 33 | 0.00 | +10.96 |
| Season to Date | 54 | 61 | 0.00 | +18.60 |
All plays are for 2 units
Philadelphia +139 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are a dangerous team because of their ability to score goals. Ottawa has some hot snipers at the moment, which has resulted in them scoring 22 times over their past five games. The Sens have also won four of those five games, which include a 7-4 victory over the hottest team on ice, the Dallas Stars. However, as dangerous as the Sens are right now, they are just as vulnerable and maybe more so. Ottawa’s Corsi Against (CA60) ranks 29th out of 30 teams. Only the Avalanche is worse. Corsi Against is a strong indicator of the opposition having the pick in your end. When the Senators defeated Dallas a week ago they were outshot 37-20. Four days ago in Colorado, Ottawa won again but got outshot again, 43-29. Over their last three games, the Sens have allowed 11 goals against. Against top-16 teams this season, Ottawa has three wins in 10 tries and two of those (against Dallas and Montreal) they had no business winning, as they were outshot by a combined 74-47 and out-chanced by a ridiculous 4-1 margin. The Senators have tremendous appeal when being offered a price but as the chalk in this range, they have very little appeal. It’s also worth noting that Ottawa returns home from a brief but difficult three game trip through Dallas, Colorado and Arizona, which is three different time zones in three consecutive games and they have the Blackhawks on deck on Thursday.
Don’t sleep on the Flyers. Over the past couple of weeks we have discussed the New York Rangers ridiculously high and unsustainable PDO (save % plus shooting %). Well, there is the other end of that spectrum too, which is where we find the Flyers. Philadelphia’s shooting percentage is 6.02%. That ranks dead last in the NHL, which reveals an overabundance of bad luck. Philadelphia has too many sharp shooters and offensive point producers to be kept at that low shooting percentage much longer. Ottawa’s shooting percentage by comparison is 11.06%. Philly has now won three of four. They have allowed two goals or fewer in five of its past eight games. They have also outshot five of its last six opponents. The Flyers are coming on and while their record says they are a weak team, their underlying metrics say they are in for a big correction to the good. Invest.
Arizona +160 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Coyotes have won three in a row and seven of their last 10 games. They have put together this run very quietly because not many pay attention to a team playing hockey in the desert. The Coyotes have been competitive all season. You won’t find a team that plays harder for their coach than this bunch and they’re just getting better. Arizona is loaded with speed, young talent and now they have the confidence to go along with it. The Coyotes are in a playoff threatening position right now and it’s no fluke. We also like that the ‘Yotes embark on a five game trip beginning with this one. As a dog in this price range, they are very worthy of a wager.
Nashville has dropped five of six while being outscored 20-6 over that span. The Preds have some impressive advanced stats that suggest they should not be slumping like they are but there is an easy explanation as to why they are not winning. Since Day 1 of the NHL season, we have insisted that Pekka Rinne is among the worst goaltenders in the game. We were wrong. Rinne is the worst goaltender in the game and that is why the Preds are a huge risk in this price range and why they are losing so often. Since October 31, Rinne’s save percentage ranks last in the NHL among goalies that have started 10 games or more. In its last game, Nashville Coach, Peter Laviolette chose to start rookie Juuse Saros (first NHL start) because the Preds were desperate for a victory and Rinne decreases their chances of winning. Every coach in this league (except Carolina’s) will tell you that winning starts with goaltending and without it, you cannot win consistently at this level. Rinne used to be one of the best. That’s nice but so were Cam Ward and Jonas Hiller in their primes. Father Time catches up to all of us. The toll of all those NHL games, two hip surgeries plus an E. coli infection that shut him down for 51 games two years ago is catching up to him. Rinne is slow and he’s no longer an NHL caliber goaltender. The market is flawed here in that it is not considering poor goaltending or it does not recognize how weak Rinne is. Either way, we’ll continue our fade on the Preds when they are favored because they have a better than 50% chance of losing with this stiff in goal (see Cam Ward in Carolina).
Dallas -1½ +197 over CALGARY
OT included. Over the past few years we have often spotted a half puck in regulation on favorites taking back a tag. Rarely have we recommended spotting 1½-pucks but things change and after carefully reviewing our position on it, we trust spotting 1½-pucks with a much larger takeback will be much more profitable.
In order to win when spotting a half puck, our team has to be up at least one goal. If they are tied after regulation, the wager loses. When spotting a half puck, we absolutely need our team to be up by at least one goal late in the game for a chance to cash. Taking that a step further, if our team is up by one goal, the opposition will then pull the goaltender. In the 2013 playoffs, Patrick Roy of the Avalanche started pulling his goaltender with three minutes or more left in the game. It worked and Roy carried that strategy into the 2014 season. It took some time for that strategy to be adapted by the other coaches in this league but now they all use it. We see more empty-netter these days than ever before because if it. Prior to the 2013 playoffs, coaches would pull the goaltender down a goal with just over or under a minute to go. Add an extra 60, 90 or 120 seconds to that and we’re happy to take our chances with an empty net goal should our team be up by one. We may not even need it but it is there in case we do. The beautiful thing about this strategy is that the market has not adjusted. We get the same prices today spotting 1½-pucks as we did when coaches pulled the goalie with approximately one minute to go. In that regard, the game has changed but the market hasn’t and so instead of spotting a half puck with a small takeback, we will be more inclined to spot 1½-pucks with a big takeback.
That brings us to this game, where we have a juggernaut going up against a team with weak goaltending. We all know how offensively potent the Stars are so there is no need to discuss them. The bottom line is that Dallas is capable of scoring five times on any given night. This team is rolling and cannot wait to get back on the ice.
We’ll give Calgary credit for being a team that does not quit and always works hard. That doesn’t translate into wins however. Calgary had many overachievers last season but many of them have regressed badly this season. More importantly, the secondary lines are not scoring like they were last season. If the Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler line doesn’t have a big game, the Flames lose almost every time. Calgary’s 56 goals scored this season ranks second last in the West, just ahead of Anaheim. Dallas has scored 85 goals. Last season the Flames were able to compensate for their weak goaltending by scoring a lot of goals and coming back from two and three goal deficits. This year, Calgary’s lack of secondary scoring has not been able to compensate for its weak goaltending. The most telling number regarding the Flames however, is one that sticks out to us in a big way and one that you will only likely read about here. The Flames are 5-2 in games that go to extra time. When games do not go past 60 minutes, Calgary is 3-14. Yikes. That suggests to us that this ticket has a better than 50% chance of cashing.
Pittsburgh +113 over SAN JOSE
OT included. The Penguins have lost three of their last four and six of their last 10 games. By contrast, San Jose has won seven of its past eight games. That sets up this nice buy-low/sell high opportunity. San Jose’s run of recent success has been fueled by nothing but good fortune. The Sharks’ special teams have been at the forefront of that by hitting on 25% of their power plays and killing off 90% of their penalty kills. Both those numbers are in line for regression. Special teams’ rankings are inconsistent. They change every year in terms of where teams are ranked. The exact same team could be ranked top-5 in power-plays one year and bottom five the next. To put emphasis on special teams is equivalent to evaluating a football team based on turnovers. When we look at the Sharks we see a team that is getting far too much production from guys like Joel Ward, Tommy Wingels and Matthew Nieto among others. This is a San Jose team made up of a bunch of role players and few scoring threats. Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Patrick Marleau are all in the twilight of their careers. Outside of Brent Burns, San Jose’s defense leaves plenty to be desired. All the stars have been aligned just right for this team to be sitting at 14-9 after 23 games but it’s not going to last. San Jose has had 29 shots on net or fewer in seven of their last eight games. They can’t keep scoring four goals on 28 shots. Hugely flawed and very lucky, the Sharks have become high on our fade radar.
Pittsburgh embarks on a four-game West Coast swing beginning here. Teams often play their best in the first game of a trip. Pittsburgh’s luck has been mostly bad, as they come into this one with a shooting percentage of 7.18%. That ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Despite the poor fortune, Pittsburgh is still 13-10. Once their shooting percentage normalizes, the puck is going go in much more frequently for guys like Crosby, Malkin, Kessel and Kunitz. On November 21, San Jose went into Pittsburgh and won 3-1. The Sharks were outshot 39-29 and had 12 faceoffs the entire game in Pittsburgh’s end. On paper, San Jose has a better record than Pittsburgh but in no way are the Sharks the superior team. We also like the spot here for the Penguins. In the end, Pittsburgh’s W/L record is also in line for a correction but unlike the Sharks’, Pittsburgh’s correction will likely be to the good.
