| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 30 | 35 | 0.00 | +10.03 |
| Season to Date | 33 | 41 | 0.00 | +4.15 |
All plays are 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Colorado +121 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. We all expected some regression from the Avalanche but not many anticipated a setback of this magnitude. In 16 games, Colorado has four wins. Last year they had four wins after four games. After 16 games last year, Colorado’s record was 14-2. Indeed the Avs weren’t as good as their record indicated last year and they’re not as bad as their record indicates this year. Of their 12 losses, eight have been by one goal and five of those occurred in OT. The Avs are just a few bounces away from a having a much better record. Colorado embarked on a four-game trip Saturday beginning in Philadelphia and lost 4-3. They outshot the Flyers 39-27 and held an offensive time edge of 13 minutes to eight minutes in five-on-five play. With two full days off and a short trip from Philly to Long Island, the Avs figure to be well-rested and determined to turn things around. They also catch the Islanders in a vulnerable spot.
The Islanders return home from a tough, five-game trip that started in Colorado and ended in Arizona. In between they played at San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles. To their credit, the Islanders won the final three games of that trip after losing the first two and now return home with a solid 9-5 record. Returning home from a West Coast trip is always tough but what’s even more interesting is that the Islanders will embark on another two game trip right after this one to Florida to play the Panthers and Lightning. They’ll barely have enough time to unpack before hitting the road again. Coming home for one game before going back on the road is really an unfavorable situation. While the Islanders are a truly difficult out this year, this is one of those times where we can step in and take back some value with an undervalued Avalanche squad in a good scheduling spot.
Dallas -106 over ARIZONA
OT included. The Coyotes have won three of four and continue to be the same pesky team that they’ve been for years. The Coyotes rarely dominate, often get outplayed and end up grinding out more wins than losses most years. However, this year’s team is not as defensive minded as the grind-it-out, defensively oriented teams we’ve seen in Phoenix over the years. The Coyotes are getting out-chanced almost every game and over their past two games have been outshot by wide margins. The ‘Yotes are also weak in net with Mike Smith. Smith, like all weak goaltenders comes up with a decent game from time to time but his .897 save percentage ranks 35 out of 40 qualified netminders. Smith won’t win the Coyotes many games but he’ll sure lose them some.
Then there’s Dallas. How can a team with this much talent lose seven straight games? The Stars are coming off a 5-3 loss to the Sharks to run their home losing streak to five and overall losing streak to seven. One has to figure that the Stars will dig down deep tonight in an attempt to break this ugly funk. Hell, even weak teams in this league rarely lose seven straight. Dallas has outshot their past three opponents, San Jose, Nashville and Los Angeles. That’s a tough trio and the Stars with some better goaltending and bounces could have just as easily won all three. A little road trip could be precisely what the Stars need right now. They have one home win and three road wins including a win in Pittsburgh. They opened the year by picking up points in six of their first seven games and it’s only a matter of time before they start picking up wins consistently. If it goes to a shootout, give a bigger edge to Dallas because Mike Smith’s save percentage over his career in shootouts is .627, which ranks 54th out of 58 among goaltenders that have appeared in 20 or more shootouts over the past five years. With its stock low, Dallas is on our radar right now as a team with great profit potential and we'll put that to the test here
Winnipeg +136 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal has won two in a row against two teams that can’t score, Buffalo and Minnesota. Against the Sabres, the game went into OT. Prior to that, Montreal had dropped four of five with only victory over that span occurring against Calgary in a game the Habs were outshot 38-19. Montreal has not scored a PP goal over their past nine games. Most of their 10 wins this season has been because of nothing but good fortune, as Montreal was badly outplayed for long stretches in all of them. The Habs’ 10-5 record is this year’s most misleading because this is not a top echelon team in any way. Over their past seven games, Montreal has scored two goals or less in six of them and the only time they went over 2 was in its last game against the Wild with Darcy Kuemper in net.
Winnipeg, like all other Western Canadian teams are not getting the credit they deserve. These teams just don’t get the same market exposure as the others and that provides us with great value on them. It may surprise you to learn that Winnipeg has picked up points in eight straight. The Jets last regulation loss was against the 11-4 Lightning. The Jets have allowed one goal or less in four of their past five and that’s because their defense is rock solid and Andrej Pavelec has never played better. The Jets are winning without scoring a lot of goals but that’s bound to change any time now, as they are loaded with point producers and goal scorers. Sagarin ratings also suggest that the Jets have played the 4th toughest schedule to date while the Canadiens strength of schedule ranks 16th. The Jets have been outstanding killing penalties, they have rarely been outplayed, they’re healthier now than ever before and they absolutely have an equal or better chance of winning than the imposter Canadiens.
Edmonton +166 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Predators are a great team. They’re a team with few weaknesses and much strength that has just three regulation losses in 14 games. Every one of Nashville’s victories was deserved. However, this is an extremely vulnerable spot for the Preds. Nashville is coming off back-to-back wins in Dallas and St. Louis. The last game on Saturday in St. Louis was an extremely hard fought and intense game that had to take something out of them. The 3-2 win in Dallas wasn’t a cake walk either. The Preds return home from a grueling 6-game trip that started in Edmonton with a 4-1 victory. Subsequently, it was on to Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Dallas and St. Louis and every game was a battle. No team in any sport can maintain that intensity level over an entire season. This now becomes a great situational play on the Oilers and it sure doesn’t hurt that they’re playing well.
Edmonton is coming off a very solid performance in New York at MSG. Edmonton won 3-1 but that was a flattering score to the Rangers. Edmonton has won two in a row and six of 10 but could have easily won two or three more of those to be 8-2 or 9-1 over their last 10. The Oilers have badly outshot three of their past four opponents. They are staying out of the box with just two minors over their past two games and just 10 minors over their past six games. They Oilers advanced stats are improving each week and they continue to ascend up those rankings. Yeah, they could easily lose here, as this is the final game of a five-game trip for them but they have looked progressively better each game of said trip and could end it here with a 3-2 record as oppose to a 2-3 record. Lastly, that last game in New York was not a draining one like the Preds last game in St. Louis. In that regard, the Oilers figure to be sharper and much less fatigued than the Predators. In this favorable spot and taking back a pretty sweet price, we’ll bite.
