| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 36 | 0.00 | -22.38 |
| Season to Date | 83 | 113 | 0.00 | -12.38 |
Washington -105 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
The Islanders are coming off a 6-5 victory over Dallas but so what. The Stars are cold and the Islanders needed all six goals to win and therein lies the problem with this host. The Isles have allowed 41, 43 and 43 shots against in their last three games. When you are allowing 40 shots on net per game, win expectation is low. Now the Islanders will play one of the best possession teams in the NHL and they’ll do so without Johnny Boychuk. That’s a big blow to the Islanders that the market does not recognize as such. Boychuk is the Islanders most stabilizing defensemen. Not only did Boychuk lead the Islanders other defensemen in shots on and directed towards the opposition’s net but his metrics reveal that he was by far the Islanders best defensemen. He’s third on the team in plus/minus too. Each of the Islanders last three victories were of the fortunate variety against Buffalo, Toronto and Dallas. The Islanders could easily be in a serious funk right now and it sure doesn’t help that whoever is in net, be it Jaroslav Halak or Thomas Greiss, will be the second best goaltender in this game.
After rare back-to-back losses, the Caps are coming off a 3-2 victory over the Bruins in Boston. The Bruins played their hearts out but could not overcome this group. Prior to those two defeats, the Caps had reeled off nine in a row. Washington is 21-1 when scoring first and they are undefeated when they take a lead into the third period. These two are intense rivals so there is no issue about a lack of motivation for the Caps (or Isles) and when that’s the case, we’re thrilled to get the superior team in better form with the superior goaltender at a price like this one. Johnny Boychuk’s injury is bigger than most know.
Florida -105 over OTTAWA
When a goaltender is as hot as Roberto Luongo is and when the team he is facing is very likely going to get badly outshot or outplayed, we’ll take out chances in a virtual pick-em game. Ottawa ranks dead last in the NHL in shots allowed per game. The last time the Sens faced the Panthers, Ottawa was outshot, 40-16. It’s a rare game when the Sens don’t allow 35 shots on net and/or 20 high quality scoring chances and we don’t have to tell you how hot the Panthers are right now. If the Panthers can score three goals here, a distinct possibility indeed, their win expectation is off the charts.
The Panthers own a 16-0-1 record when scoring at least three goals and they have scored 3 goals or more in five of their last seven games against much stronger defenses than the one they’ll face here. Overlooked in the Panthers 10-game winning streak is the work of Corbin Knight. Knight has recorded six points in 10 games and since his recall, the Panthers have gone 10-0-0. Coincidence? Probably so but it just adds to the Panthers scoring depth and to their ability to score three or more. Florida also ranks first in the NHL for least goals allowed in the first period (18) and ranks second in the NHL for least goals allowed this season with 85. Florida hasn’t even played that well over their past three games, as they were outshot in all of them and out-chanced as well. Being on the road for the second game after six at home figures to serve the Panthers well and we trust them to play their strongest game since the X-Mas break in this big hockey market.
Winnipeg +155 over DALLAS
OT included. The Jets have their issues for sure, as this team is not nearly as consistent as they were a year ago. The Jets can look near flawless one game, as they did in San Jose on January 2, and then look like a completely different team the next time out, as they did in Anaheim the day after defeating San Jose. The Jets are coming off a misleading 4-1 victory over Nashville in a game they were outshot in 44-17. All-Star Pekka Rinne allowed three goals on 17 shots while Connor Hellebuyck stood on his head. After being dominated in two straight games by Anaheim and Nashville and being outshot by an incredible mark of 79-38, Winnipeg’s propensity this year is to come up with a big game when least expected. Aside from that, if Connor Hellebuyck is as good as he’s looked recently, give Winnipeg an even better chance of winning because the goaltender that plays better wins about 90% of games.
Dallas returns home from a three-game trip to New Jersey, New York and Brooklyn and they’ll face some adversity for the first time. You see, the Stars went 0-3 in those games and allowed 15 goals against. In New York on Tuesday, Coach Lindy Ruff thought it would be a good idea to bench Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in the third period against the Rangers for the final 11 minutes for playing as he put it “stupid hockey”. That might be the stupidest coaching decision in a very long time. Benn and Seguin have made Ruff look a lot better than he is for 40 games this season. Instead of talking to them in a calm and cool matter, Ruff, the great communicator, benches them and in turn humiliates them. It is one thing to bench a fourth line winger or a young first or second year player but it’s quite another to bench your two best and most impactful players that work their asses off every game. We’ll see how it plays out and whether or not it makes a difference but Ruff is old school and these old school recycled coaches have no idea how to handle today’s players. Everything was peaches and cream before because the Stars were winning but as soon as things go a little downhill, Ruff throws his players under the bus. What we know for sure is that Dallas is very capable of scoring a bunch of goals and defeating any team but they are also a weak defensive team with weak goaltending and after Ruff crossed the line, the Stars might be even more vulnerable.
Toronto +175 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. What a tough scheduling spot for the Kings. It’s been a month a day since the Kings played consecutive home games and so this will be their 14th straight game in which they have to travel to their next destination. It all started on December 6 after a home game against Tampa Bay. From there, the Kings would travel to Columbus for the first game of six straight on the road. They returned home for one game against San Jose before heading out for another four games on the road that started in Arizona and ended in Calgary. Los Angeles would subsequently come back home for one game against Philadelphia before flying to Colorado to play the Avs on January 4. This is the game after Colorado and it’s also their fourth straight game in a different time zone. We can’t even imagine how exhausted these players must be feeling and no matter how hard they dig down for this one, it’s not going to be easy against the Maple Leafs.
If you watched the Maple Leafs last night you had to be taken aback by their flawless performance. Everything the Ducks tried to do or thought they could do was countered by something better by the Leafs. What Mike Babcock has done with this team is nothing short of brilliant. He has taken a group of lost players and a directionless team and has turned them into a serious threat. The Maple Leafs have earned at least one point in 10 of their last 12 games by going 8-2-2 over that span. During that stretch, Toronto has defeated the Blues twice while outscoring St. Louis by a combined 8-2. They also have a 4-0 victory over Anaheim (last night) and a 5-0 victory over these same Kings. To recap, against St. Louis twice, Anaheim and Los Angeles, Toronto has outscored that quartet, 17-2. Last year at this time, the Maple Leafs were at -39 during 5-on-5 play and this year they are +5, a difference of 44 goals in half a season. Babcock has put together four lines that all work outstanding together and now Jake Gardiner, Mike Reilly and even Dion Phaneuf are all playing at a high level on defense. The Maple Leafs bubble is not going to be burst. Toronto is thriving and playing like they know they’re going to win. They can’t wait to get back on the ice and they are not intimidating by anyone. Great situation, great price and great chance to win has us backing this undervalued group.
