| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| Last 30 Days | 27 | 33 | 0.00 | +0.82 |
| Season to Date | 128 | 145 | 0.00 | +29.39 |
ALL PLAYS ARE FOR 2 units
Florida +136 over MONTREAL
OT included. Last night was proof once again that Carey Price is the league’s MVP and it’s not close. Without Price, Montreal would be swimming with teams like Columbus, Philadelphia and Carolina. Montreal rarely dominates anyone. They rarely even outplay the opposition. The Habs have picked up 11 out of a possible 14 points over their past seven games and without Price that would probably be 3 points out of a possible 14. Over that span the Canadiens played one team, possibly two that are going to the playoffs. The Canadiens rank 22 out of 30 teams in shots against per game. They are the only team in the league that ranks that low and are going to the playoffs. The teams around them in that telling category are New Jersey, Dallas, Arizona, Toronto, Ottawa and Colorado. In 5-on-5 play, Montreal ranks 20th in goals scored. That puts them ahead of teams like Arizona, Buffalo, Philly, Edmonton, Columbus and Carolina. To give you an idea of how extremely lucky the Canadiens are, consider that they have scored the least amount of goals in the entire league in first period. Again, Montreal wins because of Carey Price. If Price prevents us from cashing this ticket, so be it but what we know for sure is that we’re going with the best of it here because Montreal cannot be favored in this range when they’re no better than most (other than in net of course). Last night’s game in Ottawa was intense and physical. The Habs now play their third game in four days here and the tail-end of back-to-backs while the Panthers are fresh off a victory in Toronto on Tuesday.
According to everything we know, Florida should make the playoffs. They are a playoff team that has been on the opposite side of Montreal in the luck spectrum. Although they have struggled to get wins, they have been fundamentally sound. This is evident by their SCA60 number (Scorsi goals against per 60). This season, Florida’s strong and sound defensive system has them ranked 6th in the league in SCA60. They have combined a good group of young, talented players with the right veterans (Jokinen, Boyes, Bergenheim, Upshall, Campbell) to create a strong overall team that plays solid at both ends of the ice. Florida is getting stronger by the week. Before defeating the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, the Panthers faced the following nine teams in succession: St. Louis, Dallas, Minnesota, Anaheim, Nashville, L.A., the Islanders and the Rangers. They didn’t lo0ok a bit out of place against any of those strong teams while picking up points in five of those games and deserving better in three others. They are creating a ton of scoring chances lately (37 shots on net or more in four of its past eight and 30 or more in six of those) while not being under much pressure in their own end. The Panthers are three points behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot. What’s even more remarkable is that they have a goal differential of -17 and that does not make sense for a team that plays this well. Again, it’s all about “puck luck” and the Panthers have had none. Just like Anaheim’s luck turned for the worse, Florida’s luck is bound to turn for the better and as a pooch in this range against what figures to be a tired Montreal team, there is outstanding value here.
Columbus +205 over PITTSBURGH
OT included. We’re all pretty aware of what the Jackets are or are not capable of. Columbus can look terrific one game or one period and look like they couldn’t care less the next. Such was the case on Tuesday in Philadelphia when they built a 2-0 first period lead, got outshot in the second period 20-6 and scored three times in the third to win it, 5-2. Lapses are a concern because they happen far too often but this one is more about fading the Penguins, a team that could be in more trouble than anyone on the outside is aware of.
Allow us to take you back to Tuesday’s game against Washington where Alex Ovechkin committed a vicious slash on Kris Letang and in case you missed, here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yzscf-UvyE4
Don Cherry will likely have a fit over this on Coaches Corner on Saturday night. Now, we’re not talking about the slash itself, we’re talking about the players (on Pitt) reaction that Cherry will have a fit over. The crowd at the Igloo was very much brought to life by the Ovechkin assault and the reaction from the home team to all that energy and viciousness was what? Chris Kunitz shoved Ovechkin once shortly thereafter. No one did anything. There was no retaliation or nobody defending their teammate. Had that happened to a guy like Patrick Kane or a marquee player on another team somebody on the Capitals or several players would’ve paid a price. That strongly suggests some internal issues that we know little about but it can’t be ignored. That’s one incident but it goes deeper. It shouldn’t go unnoticed that the Penguins were handed a playoff atmosphere and turtled. The Penguins are now 0 for 16 over their past eight games on the PP. They’re now producing at 12.9% clip since Nov. 11, which is 28th in the league. Sunday in Chicago, Mike Johnston and Rick Tocchet, the assistant who oversees the power play, decided to take Evgeni Malkin off the top unit, which is akin to the Patriots tinkering with a slumping offense by benching Tom Brady. It’s ludicrous. The Penguins had an optional skate this morning. 12 players showed up and among the missing were Malkin, Chris Kunitz, Rob Scuderi and Paul Martin. For a team that didn’t play yesterday, is slumping, not producing and needs work to get its power-play working again, those no-shows at today’s optional are significant. We’re not saying that Pittsburgh is going to lose here but what we see is a team that is coming apart at the seams and a team that coach Mike Johnston is losing in the dressing room. Let’s see what happens.
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +104 over Vancouver
Regulation only. Vancouver is coming off a hugely intense game against the Wild on Tuesday in which they persevered, 3-2. The Canucks have now won four of their past six and have some very nice victories over that span. However, the Rangers are a team the Canucks cannot beat and they Rangers are also vastly superior to them. Over the past four meetings, the Rangers are 4-0 against the Canucks while outscoring them 17-4, which includes a 5-1 victory back in Vancouver this past December. We usually don’t put much emphasis on past histories but the Canucks core has been the same for years and that group is at a huge psychological disadvantage here. Furthermore, Vancouver is missing four of its regular defensemen and that, too, is a huge obstacle they are not likely to overcome. Early in the year the Canucks were rolling along at a nice clip until they went on the road and played six Eastern teams in succession. They lost the final four games against that group and haven’t been the same since. Right now, Eddie Lack is playing so much better than Ryan Miller but once again everything is about money so once again Miller will play because they’re paying him a shitload to do so.
The Rangers are a freight train right now. They’ve won four in a row and scored five times or more in all of them. New York has also won 12 of its last 15 home games. When a team is going this good and scoring at this pace, they can’t wait to get back on the ice. Based on their current form and their outstanding home record since the middle of November, asking the Rangers to win another home game in regulation without laying anything against a team they own and that is depleted on the back end, is a true value bet that has a much better chance of cashing than not.
Nashville +106 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. We’ve talked a lot recently about the Islanders extreme “puck luck” and nothing has changed other than a loss to the Rangers in their last game. The Islanders are so overpriced here because of their outstanding record but regression is on the way because there is one warning sign after another. The Islanders have won five of their past six but those victories occurred against Carolina, Toronto, Columbus, Edmonton and Buffalo. Against teams going to the playoffs, the Islanders have lost five straight and have been outscored over that span, 21-11. The Islanders have also allowed 36 shots on net or more in five of their last seven games with only Buffalo and Toronto (who had 34) being below that mark. Then there’s Jaroslav Halak. Halak is playing for two reasons. First, the Islanders are paying him a fortune and secondly, they have nobody else. Halak is fighting everything. He’s posted save percentages if .857, .800, .889, .897, .875 and .862 in six of his past 10 games and the only teams he’s done well against recently were Buffalo (he faced 10 shots on net), Toronto and Edmonton. Halak’s current form and lack of confidence says he would have trouble stopping a beach ball right now.
How can we not take Nashville here at a price? The Preds are a nightmare to play against when you’re not in very good form and right now the Islanders are not. Nashville has won six in a row and has allowed two goals or less in every one of those victories. That includes holding the Bolts and Rangers to two goals apiece. Speaking of beach balls, that’s what Pekka Rinne is seeing right now. In any event, the Islanders are a strong fade right now and we couldn’t have handpicked a better team to back at a price than these Predators.
