4 Thursday w/analysis

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All plays are 2 units with the exception of Calgary, which is 2.3 units to win 2
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

N.Y. Islanders +157 over BOSTON

OT included. The Bruins got off to a bit of a slow start with three losses in their first four games but they have done a complete 180 by winning three of their next four. No question that the Bruins are a threat in the East but we’re seeing some weaknesses from Boston that we have not seen in the past few years. The biggest regression is on defense where Boston has allowed as many goals as they have scored and Tuukka Rask doesn’t look as invincible as he has in previous years. That’s not to say Rask is in trouble because it’s way too early to pass judgement in such a small sample size but he’s still been tagged for nine goals against in his past two games on just 60 shots. It looks like the B’s are going with Niklas Svedberg tonight anyway. It’s also worth noting that the Bruins got a bit of a monkey off their backs by winning two straight and three of four and that they have the Maple Leafs up next in Toronto on Saturday night.

By contrast, the Islanders got off to a torrid start by winning their first four games and scoring 19 goals in the process. It must be noted however, that the Islanders played Carolina twice and Buffalo once and combined, that pair has one victory in 12 games. The Islanders other victory occurred against the Sharks in OT but that was a flattering score to the Sharkies, as the Islanders outshot them 45-23 and spent most of the game in San Jose’s end. Most recently, the Islanders have dropped two straight to Pittsburgh and Toronto and because of that they are taking back a pretty hefty price here. Thing is, the Islanders were not outplayed in either one of their past two games. They had a 1-0 lead on Pittsburgh through one and were down 2-1 after two. The Pens added an empty netter to make the final 3-1 with shots on goal being just about even and so too, was time spent in the offensive end. Against the Maple Leafs, Jaroslav Halak had one of his stinkers that he has a few times every year and the Leafs buried five by him on just 28 shots. Now the Islanders with three strong road games in three tries this year take the road again with their extremely dangerous offense and much improved defense. It would come as no shock whatsoever if New York played another strong road game and emerged victorious. The tag on the Islanders is too high.

Columbus +158 over SAN JOSE
OT included. This is a tough spot for the Sharks, as they return home from five-games in seven nights on an East Coast swing that started in Washington and ended in Boston. This now becomes the Sharks fourth game in six nights and sixth game in nine nights. Incidentally, the Sharks are on a current run of 0-4 in their fourth game in six nights. San Jose has allowed nine goals against in their past two games to the Rangers and Bruins and chances are good that they’ll be somewhat lethargic here. Even if they are not, we still like the Jackets taking back a price like this one.

Columbus is 3-2 and this is the first game of a three games in four nights, Western trip. The Jackets have a pretty fair history of playing well on this trip and while they do have some significant injuries to key players (Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner and Nathan Horton) they are still a tough out. The Jackets lose some firepower, experience and grit with those players out but they are not ill-prepared, as they have plenty of depth with guys like Mark Letestu and Jack Skille moving up the totem pole. When key guys are out, teams have a propensity for digging down a little deeper. The spirit of the Jackets has not been sapped and in fact, they are playing their hearts out every shift. That said, this is more about fading the Sharks, who are priced too high in a difficult scheduling spot.

CALGARY -½ +103 over Carolina
Regulation only. The Hurricanes are still winless and hungry but the truth is they are fighting a losing battle with injuries to both Staal’s and a defense that is among the worst in the league. The ‘Canes offense isn’t very threatening either. Carolina has scored just 11 times in five games. In its last two games it has scored twice. They’ll now play their third consecutive on the road and with each loss, winning becomes more difficult. Calgary is not the team you want to be playing when searching for that illusive first win.

The Flames are for real. Projected to be near of the bottom of the West standings, Calgary is playing with a chip on their shoulder and they remain perhaps the hardest working team in the league under Bob Hartley. Besides that, they are so much talented than they get credit for. Mason Raymond is among the league leaders in points and is turning out to be another great acquisition by GM, Brad Treliving. Raymond joins Mikael Backlund, Joe Colborne and Jiri Hudler along with rookies Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau to provide the Flames with an underrated offense that has scored 20 times in eight games. Not great but let us point out that the Flames have played Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville and Tampa Bay in four of their eight games and when they played weaker defenses like Edmonton and Winnipeg, they scored nine times in two games. The Flames’ strength however is on defense where they employ one of the best units in the NHL with T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell. Two of those guys are all-stars while the other two could crack the lineup of 90% of the teams in this league. Calgary returned home from a six-game trip and held the Lightning to 22 shots on net in a 2-1 OT loss. They are now 0-2 at home and they figure to be extremely hungry for a home victory after going 4-2 on the road. This is Calgary’s second game back after said trip and we can almost guarantee you that they will not get outworked or outplayed in this game and it sure doesn’t hurt that they are the superior team.

MINNESOTA -½ -115 over Arizona
Arizona has picked up a respectable 5 out of a possible 10 points. That’s nice for a team that has perhaps the least amount of talent in the NHL but man, are they up against it here. Arizona has allowed four goals or more in four of its five games. When a team is focused and jacked up to play, the Coyotes are in in trouble. Indeed Arizona has a couple of nice wins but it's a small oasis in a desert of despair. The Yotes lost to St. Louis 6-1 and they lost to Winnipeg 6-2 and they’ll now play a team that cannot wait to get back on the ice.

Minnesota has played just four games this season, which is the least amount in the league. They have played just one home game which occurred back on October 9 when they outshot the Avs 48-16 and won 5-0. The Wild have dropped two straight to Anaheim and Los Angeles by identical 2-1 scores. They had the Ducks on the ropes until Anaheim scored a lucky shorthanded goal to tie it in the third. At that point, the Ducks were fortunate to not be down by three goals. Two nights later, the Wild went into Los Angeles and outshot the Kings, 41-16 and played practically the entire game in L.A.’s end. It was one of the sickest and most frustrating losses for anyone that wagered on the Wild that night. Minnesota has dominated every game they have played in thus far, yet they are just 2-2. They have allowed just four goals against in four games and they possess perhaps the best defense in the league to go along with a group of strong two-way players that take a back-seat to nobody, not even the Kings. Minnesota is a powerhouse that has as good a chance to win the Cup this year as any team in the league. There is very little chance that the Wild are going to allow a team like Arizona, with a garbage goaltender in Mike Smith, to come in here and defeat them after they dominated their past two games and have nothing to show for it. Seldom do we recommend laying juice and pucks but we’re extremely confident in Minnesota to put away this nothing team with relative ease.
 

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Sherwood knocked that sucker out of the park tonight.

Great job.
 

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Great work as always Sherwood
 

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